Affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the spot price of potash fertilizer in China has recently broken the record high since 2008 and doubled compared with the low point in 2021 potash leading stock Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) since January 28 this year, the share price has nearly doubled , and the cumulative highest increase since the lowest point in 2018 has reached 1157% P align = “center” daily chart of China potash share price
After hours today, Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) announced that the “1 million T / a potash fertilizer reconstruction and expansion project in Laos” invested and constructed by the company has achieved stable production and reached the production capacity and product quality planned in the project design. The company also said that this project is the first million ton potash fertilizer project outside China and will also be the largest potash fertilizer project in Southeast Asia.
Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) at the same time, the annual report was disclosed. In 2021, the revenue was 833 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 129.36%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 895 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 140143%, setting a new record for performance .
As for the reasons for the performance growth, Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) said that the gross profit margin of products increased significantly due to the rise of international potash prices. At the same time, with the release of production capacity of the above projects, the profitability of the enterprise continues to increase.
Public information shows that Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) after Guofu invested in 2019, it successively stripped off its original businesses such as grain trade and shipping business, focused on potassium mining, potassium fertilizer production and sales, and successfully transformed and focused on potassium fertilizer business. At present, the company’s potassium fertilizer product revenue accounts for 99% .
In addition, Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) at present, it is still promoting the project of acquiring 56% equity of agricultural potassium resources through fixed increase. Through this transaction, the company will obtain high-quality potash minerals in Pengxia nongbo ore section connected with the existing Dongtai ore section. The estimated potash ore reserves are 3.936 billion tons and 677 million tons of potassium chloride resources. It is expected to become the largest potash fertilizer resource enterprise in Asia. According to the company’s previous interactive platform, the company plans to form a potash fertilizer production capacity of at least 3 million tons within 3-5 years in the future
As of today, five institutions have predicted the performance of Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) 2022 within six months, of which the estimated average net profit attributable to parent company is 1.238 billion yuan, higher than 895 million yuan in 2021.
In a research report released on March 16, Li zizhuo of East Asia Qianhai Securities said that due to the large reduction in the export of potassium fertilizer from Belarus and Russia, it is difficult to make up for the supply gap in the short term. At the same time, the downstream Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price is high, farmers’ planting enthusiasm is improved, and the demand for potassium fertilizer continues to increase. Therefore, the boom time of potash fertilizer is expected to be prolonged, and the profitability of potash fertilizer enterprises will be improved .
Recently, a potash fertilizer trader told the financial Associated Press: “now there is no sign of decline in the rise, the supply of reserves and port goods is insufficient, and the import volume is very limited in the short term. Some granular red potassium has soared to 5500 yuan / ton .”
The price of potash fertilizer continues to move upward, superimposed on the company’s projects reaching production and the “volume and price rise together”, Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) Yang Lin and others predicted in the research report released on March 21 that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 1.527 billion yuan in 2022, with a year-on-year growth rate of 104.33% , and the year-on-year growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 is 17% (compared with the estimated growth rate in 2022 sharp drop ).
In addition, Yang Lin and others analyzed that at present, China’s potash resources are seriously insufficient, which belongs to one of the nine kinds of mineral resources in serious shortage in China, with an external dependence of more than 50%. In addition to the geographical conflict between Russia and Belarus, the strike of workers of CP company in Canada may also have a serious impact on the transportation of potash fertilizer. According to public information, Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) more than 70% of the operating revenue comes from overseas markets .
