The first quarter of this year just passed, and the top 100 real estate enterprises had a bad start. According to Kerui data statistics, the overall performance scale of the top 100 real estate enterprises decreased significantly by 47% year-on-year, and the property market did not usher in the expected “spring March”.
According to the statistics of China Index Research Institute, the average sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises in the first quarter was 16.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 47%, and there were only two real estate enterprises with sales exceeding 100 billion yuan.
However, in the first quarter of this year, many ministries and commissions have intensively stated their position to stabilize real estate and released a strong signal to maintain stability. The heads of several leading real estate enterprises and research institutions expect that the real estate market will stabilize and pick up next, the effect of easing policy will gradually appear, and this year’s real estate market may also show a trend of low before high.
10 billion sales of 30 real estate enterprises
In the first three months of this year, the downward pressure on China’s real estate industry continued, and the overall market remained depressed.
According to Kerui’s monitoring of 30 key cities, the transaction area of commercial housing increased by 48% month on month in March, and the year-on-year decline expanded to 47%. In the first quarter, the overall performance scale of the top 100 real estate enterprises decreased significantly by 47% year-on-year, the performance of a single month in March decreased by 52.7% year-on-year, increased by 5.5 percentage points compared with the decline in February, and decreased by 2.6% compared with the performance scale in January. In terms of cumulative performance, the overall performance scale of the top 100 real estate enterprises from January to March decreased significantly by 47% year-on-year, which is also lower than the same period level in 2020.
In March, the market of the first tier cities fell into silence, with the turnover increasing by 7% month on month and the year-on-year decline expanding to 49%. The turnover of each city continued to run at a low level, with a year-on-year decline of around 50%. Subject to the repeated occurrence of epidemic prevention and control, the real estate markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen were in a state of “semi suspension”, and the year-on-year decline in transactions was significantly expanded.
The transactions in Beijing and Guangzhou were also less than expected. The market performance was weak in the first and middle of March. The average removal rate of new opening projects was as low as 30%. It began to warm up in the last ten days, but the overall market heat was far from that of the same period last year. After the implementation of the rescue policy in some cities, the market did recover, but the duration was short.
In the first quarter, the cumulative performance of more than 80% of the top 100 real estate enterprises decreased year-on-year, and nearly 40% of the enterprises decreased by more than 50%. The sales performance of most large-scale real estate enterprises was poor. On the one hand, they were affected by the market downturn and lack of confidence in the industry, on the other hand, their own promotion and marketing enthusiasm were generally not high.
According to Kerui’s full caliber sales list, the top ten real estate enterprises in the first quarter were country garden, Vanke, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , rongchuang, Zhonghai, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Resources Land, Jindi, Lvcheng and Longhu, of which only country garden and Vanke had a sales amount of more than 100 billion.
According to the statistics of China Index Research Institute, the average sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises in the first quarter was 16.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 47%, and there were only two real estate enterprises with sales exceeding 100 billion yuan, a decrease of 3 compared with the same period last year; There were 46 real estate enterprises exceeding 10 billion yuan, a decrease of 30 compared with the same period last year.
land acquisition intention is still not strong
In the case that the risks in the real estate industry have not been cleared, the financing and land acquisition of real estate enterprises did not improve significantly in the first quarter of this year.
According to the statistics of China Index Research Institute, the total land acquisition of the top 100 real estate enterprises from January to march was 227.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 59%. The total land acquisition of the rights and interests of the top 100 real estate enterprises accounted for 58.5% of the land transfer fees of 300 cities in China.
From the perspective of new value, green city China, China Resources Land and Shanghai real estate group occupy the top three. In the first quarter, green city became the largest real estate enterprise with a cumulative new value of 39.2 billion yuan, followed by China Resources Land and Shanghai real estate group, with a cumulative new value of 32.3 billion yuan and 29.7 billion yuan respectively.
The land acquisition of real estate enterprises was significantly differentiated. The land acquisition amount of 50 representative enterprises decreased by 68% year-on-year. The enterprises dominated by state-owned central enterprises had a positive attitude towards land acquisition. Most of the top ten land acquisition enterprises were state-owned central enterprises. In addition to the top three, there were also Jianfa, Beijing Xingchuang, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Jindi, Binjiang, Xuzhou New Area state owned assets management and China Construction Third Bureau, of which only Binjiang collective of Zhejiang real estate enterprises was a private enterprise.
Kerry believes that in the first quarter, financial institutions were more cautious in lending, the overall financing did not recover significantly, and the liquidity pressure of most enterprises continued. According to incomplete statistics, in the first quarter of 2022, the financing scale of 100 typical real estate enterprises in the industry decreased significantly by 53% year-on-year, especially from February to March, the overseas financing almost “stagnated”. In the first quarter, the financing scale of about 75% of real estate enterprises decreased year-on-year, of which nearly 40% of enterprises decreased by more than 50% year-on-year. It will take time for the transmission and implementation of policy recovery. In the short term, the overall financing scale of large-scale real estate enterprises will remain low.
the industry expects to stabilize and recover in the second quarter
In March, many central ministries and commissions have made intensive statements to stabilize real estate and released strong signals to maintain stability. The Ministry of finance made it clear that it does not have the conditions to expand the pilot cities of real estate tax reform within this year. The two sessions set the tone to explore the new development model of the industry and support the three types of house purchase needs of new citizens. More than 60 cities have introduced new policies, and favorable policies such as marginal improvement of residents’ mortgage loan policy, relaxation of provident fund loans, reduction of down payment ratio, partial relaxation of loan restrictions, reduction of mortgage interest rate, deregulation of purchase restrictions, cancellation of sales restrictions, issuance of house purchase subsidies and monetized resettlement of shed reform have continued.
In the last two weeks of March, stimulated by favorable policies, the property market has shown signs of warming up. In the 13th week of this year, the turnover of key cities rebounded significantly, which has basically returned to the weekly turnover scale at the beginning of the month, and the turnover of Shenzhen and Qingdao increased.
At the recent intensive performance meeting of real estate enterprises, the real estate “big man” also spoke about the current situation of the real estate market.
Yu Liang, chairman of Vanke’s board of directors, said: “there are still opportunities for the real estate development business, which will also be the most important business of Vanke. The real estate market is still a single market with a huge scale, which will reach 100 billion yuan, and the real estate development association often does it.”
Li Xin, President of China Resources Land, talked about his front-line research at the performance meeting: “some time ago, I had in-depth exchanges with major regions and learned that there have been obvious signs of market recovery since the middle and late March, especially in the first and second tier cities, the visit of sales offices and the improvement of transformation data, and the transaction volume of second-hand houses in the first and strong second tier cities is also rising. From the general trend, it is low in the first half of this year and may rise in the second half of this year.”
Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) chairman Wang Xiaosong said that the macro policy will continue to exert its force in 2022. As a pillar industry, real estate will play the role of stabilizer. The real estate regulation and control policy will continue to be partially relaxed and increase support for rigid demand and improvement. The real estate market is expected to stabilize and enter a virtuous circle.
Kerui Research Center believes that the bottom of the market may come in the second quarter, when the transaction may be bottomed and stabilized. The first and second tier cities will probably stabilize in April and may. Among them, the first tier cities have the strongest market demand and purchasing power, and the real estate market may take the lead in stabilizing. 3、 It will take a long time for the market of the fourth tier cities to stabilize. The real estate market of the strong third tier cities may not stabilize until the second half of the year or even the end of the year, and the real estate market of the weak third and fourth tier cities may continue to consolidate.
China Index Research Institute said that the national real estate market has shown a sideways trend after stabilization. Looking forward to the future, more accurate demand side support policies are expected to be introduced intensively. The policies may focus on the withdrawal of provident fund loans, reducing the proportion of down payment, reducing mortgage interest rates, and appropriately loosening purchase restrictions. In the future, as the epidemic situation in various places is effectively controlled, the effect of loose policies in the real estate market may gradually appear, and the national real estate market is expected to recover gradually.