When spring returns, the national property market also begins to warm up.
"Today, I went to the transfer hall. It was full." A real estate agent in Yinghai, Daxing, Beijing told the Huaxia times,
In the past two months, the trading volume of both new and second-hand houses in Beijing has been rising, especially in the past March. However, compared with last March, the current property market can only be regarded as "slightly hot".
According to the data of second-hand real estate on March 24 last year, the number of second-hand real estate still decreased by 38% compared with that on March 24 last year.
According to the data of the shell Research Institute, the trading volume of second-hand houses in the "shell 50 city" increased by about 7% month on month in the first quarter of this year, including a continuous month on month recovery in February and March, a month on month growth rate of more than 40% in March, and the trading volume returned to the level of last July.
While the property market recovered, house prices remained stable. Yan Yuejin, director of the think tank research center of E-House Research Institute, told the Huaxia times that "gold, silver and four" is the traditional peak season of the real estate market. Coupled with the recent relaxation of policies, the recovery of the real estate market is a normal phenomenon, but the sharp rise and fall of house prices will not appear, which is beneficial to the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
in 3, the transaction area in Beijing increased by 80% month on month
After the Spring Festival, the number of houses traded in Beijing increased significantly, and the homeowners' expectations for the listing price rose. The prices of houses hanging out after the Spring Festival were raised. The new housing market has also warmed up again and again. On the first day of April, the Hesheng meyue project in the South Fifth Ring Road of Beijing will complete "five consecutive rises". After this round of price increases, each suite is on average 5 Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Co.Ltd(000060) 000 yuan more expensive than before.
"I don't know what's going on. In the last two months, more people have seen houses than before. New houses and second-hand houses are easy to sell." A housing agency in Yinghai, Daxing, Beijing attributed the reason to the fact that the area belongs to a "value depression". Taking the two bedroom Yinghai home of 86 square meters as an example, it was 3.2 million years ago and now it is as low as 3.3 million.
The Hesheng meyue project of the intermediary agent is located in the South Fifth Ring Road. Since its opening in July last year, the price has been raised for many times. The project salesperson told reporters: "today (March 31) is the last day before our price rise. It's not a weekend. Four sets have been sold before 12 noon. There was a customer deal at 10 pm last night. It costs 50000 or 60000 yuan less to book a room today than tomorrow."
The salesperson said that not only in Yinghai area, the overall housing sales in Beijing in March was better than usual. The owner of a community in Taiyanggong, Chaoyang District told the Huaxia times that recently, we often see intermediaries taking customers to see houses in the community. "In recent years, there are not many people looking at the house. Recently, there are more people. From time to time, they will receive calls from intermediaries to ask whether to sell the house." The owner told reporters, "the intermediary said that there are many customers recently, and the house is easy to sell."
According to the analysis of wheat field real estate, there were three obvious trends in Beijing's second-hand housing market in March: first, the activity of house buyers increased significantly, with the amount of house viewing increased by 47.6% compared with the previous month, and the daily average of house viewing in the second half of the month continued to increase compared with the first half of the month; Second, the wait-and-see mood of the market is weakening, the decision-making cycle of home buyers is shortening, and the average transaction cycle of customers in March is 4.4 days shorter than that of the previous month; Third, the expectations of landlords have been enhanced. Among the houses sold in Beijing in March, the bargaining space decreased by 0.9 percentage points month on month. In March, the trading volume of second-hand houses in Beijing may exceed 16000 units.
In fact, the "recovery" situation similar to Beijing is also being staged in Zhengzhou, Suzhou, Wuhan, Fuzhou and other places. The trading volume of the real estate market in these areas also increased significantly in March. According to the data of China Index Research Institute, in March, the overall trading volume of Suzhou property market increased by 67.4%, Fuzhou by 53.4% and Wuhan by 51.2%.
According to the data of China Index Research Institute, in terms of transaction area, except that Shanghai continued to decline month on month due to the interference of epidemic factors, the first tier cities achieved month on month growth in March, with 80.4% month on month growth in Beijing, 34% and 26% in Guangzhou and Shenzhen respectively.
Fuzhou liberalizes the purchase policy of outsiders
The signal of this round of property market recovery starts from adjusting the proportion of down payment.
In February 2022, several banks in Heze, Shandong and Dezhou adjusted the minimum down payment ratio of the first house to 20%. In addition, some banks in Chongqing, Ganzhou, Foshan and other cities also adjusted the minimum down payment ratio to 20%. The "second suite", which has always been restricted to key objects, has also become loose.
On March 18, Guangxi district housing provident fund management center issued the notice on reducing the minimum down payment ratio of the second set of personal housing loan of housing provident fund. If employees and families buy the second set of housing or apply for housing provident fund loan for the second time, the minimum down payment ratio will be reduced to 30%. According to incomplete statistics, nearly 10 cities across the country have lowered the proportion of down payment.
More directly than reducing the proportion of down payment, some cities have relaxed the purchase restriction policy.
On March 1, Zhengzhou issued the notice on promoting the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry, the most important of which is to "reduce the personal housing consumption burden", guide financial institutions in Zhengzhou to increase the investment of personal housing mortgage loans and reduce the housing loan interest rate. For families who own a house and have settled the corresponding house purchase loans, in order to improve their living conditions and apply for loans again to buy ordinary commercial houses, banking financial institutions implement the first house loan policy. In other words, Zhengzhou no longer recognizes housing and loans.
On March 23, the official website of Harbin municipal government announced that the notice of the general office of Harbin Municipal People's Government on Further Strengthening the regulation and control of the real estate market had completed its phased regulation and control mission and was to be abolished. It is understood that the notice was issued in 2018, stipulating that the authority to cancel the registration information cancellation of the online signing contract of the construction unit shall be cancelled in zone 6 of the main urban area. Those who newly purchase commercial housing can be listed and traded after three years from the date of signing the online signing contract of commercial housing.
On March 30, some media said that Fuzhou began to implement the new deal of the real estate market: if you buy a house in Wucheng District of Fuzhou, you can buy an ordinary house with an area of less than 144 square meters in Wucheng District of Fuzhou without providing medical social security or tax certificate or settlement for 12 months in recent two years.
mortgage interest rates generally lowered
In addition to the liberalization of the down payment ratio, the practice of more cities is to reduce the mortgage interest rate.
On March 25, it was reported from Wuhan that since March 25, major banking institutions have implemented the interest rate of the first house of newly signed mortgage loans according to LPR + 60BP (1bp is 0.01 percentage point, at present, the LPR over 5 years is 4.6%), i.e. 5.2%, and the interest rate of the second house according to LPR + 80bp, i.e. 5.4%.
"The interest rate of the first house in Wuhan is now 5.2%, and that of the second house is 5.4%. Before, the interest rate of the first house was 5.75%, and that of the second house was 5.95%." A housing agent in Wuhan told our reporter.
In addition to Wuhan, many cities such as Hangzhou, Suzhou, Nanjing, Changsha and Chengdu have reduced mortgage interest rates. Hangzhou ICBC, China Construction Bank, Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) and other mainstream banks have repeatedly lowered the mortgage interest rate after the Spring Festival, of which the first mortgage interest rate has been reduced to 5.3%.
At the beginning of 2020, the mortgage interest rate in Suzhou was as high as 6.12%, and now the interest rate of the first house has been reduced to 4.6%. Nanjing adjusted the mortgage interest rate around March 20, and the interest rate of the first house of some banks fell to 5.4%.
In March, the interest rates of the first set of housing loans and the second set of housing loans in 103 key cities monitored by the shell Research Institute were 5.34% and 5.60%, respectively 30 and 31 basis points higher than that in December last year, of which 13 and 15 basis points lower than that in March, the largest monthly decline since 2019. In addition, the bank lending time was shortened. The average lending cycle of 103 cities in March was about one month, close to the fastest speed in the third quarter of 2020. At present, nearly 50% of cities have a lending cycle of less than one month, and 19 cities have a lending cycle of less than 20 days, including 13 cities in the Yangtze River Delta.
For the stimulating effect of loose policy on the property market, some experts in the real estate industry believe that it is of great significance. A senior person in Wuhan told our reporter: "before, the policy of the real estate industry was basically 'one size fits all', which led to the bad of the whole market. This year, we still want to have some positive impact on the market by relaxing the policy."
Some experts said they should be cautious and optimistic about the property market. Yan Yuejin told our reporter: "in April, the pace of new houses will be accelerated, and we should be vigilant against the cooling of the property market. On the whole, the property market may show a 'hook' trend in 2022, cooling in the first half of the year and warming in the second half of the year."
On the whole, the property market operates smoothly under the general tone of "no speculation in housing", and local policies are flexibly adjusted and timely intervened to avoid overheating or supercooling of the property market, which plays an important role in maintaining the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
