A number of auto companies disclosed delivery data. In March, the sales volume of new energy vehicles still maintained a strong growth, and the market had different expectations for the annual sales volume. The impact of the recent price rise still needs to be observed.
Among the three new forces, Xiaopeng automobile won the championship in monthly delivery data. Xiaopeng delivered 15414 cars in March, with a year-on-year increase of 202% and a month on month increase of 148%; The delivery volume of ideal vehicles was followed by 11034 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 125.2% and a month on month increase of 311.4%; Weilai delivered 9985 vehicles, up 37.6% year-on-year and 63% month on month.
According to the quarterly data, Xiaopeng automobile defended the title for three consecutive quarters. In the first quarter, Xiaopeng, ideal and Weilai delivered 34561, 31716 and 25768 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 159%, 152.1% and 28.5%. At present, the three companies have delivered 170000, 156000 and 193000 vehicles respectively.
It is worth mentioning that players originally belonging to the second tier have a great potential to catch up with and surpass in the near future. Nezha delivered 12026 vehicles in March, with a year-on-year increase of 270%, ranking ahead of ideal and Weilai; In the first quarter, a total of 30152 vehicles were delivered, with a year-on-year increase of 305%, ranking ahead of Weilai.
Zero run vehicles exceeded the 10000 mark, and 10059 vehicles were delivered in March, with a month on month increase of 193%. In the first quarter, 21579 vehicles were delivered, with a year-on-year increase of 410%.
GAC ea’an’s sales volume reached 20000 units, with 20317 units sold in March, a year-on-year increase of 189%. GAC ea’an said that the sales volume increased greatly. On the one hand, due to the completion of the expansion and upgrading of the factory’s capacity in February, the capacity scale has doubled to ensure the supply guarantee; On the other hand, it benefits from the innovative methods of ai’an in science and technology, products, channels and marketing, especially the comprehensive innovation and reform brought by the mixed reform.
Byd Company Limited(002594) has not disclosed the monthly sales volume. Wang Chuanfu, chairman of the company, disclosed at the performance meeting the previous day that at present Byd Company Limited(002594) cumulative undelivered orders have reached 400000 and are increasing month by month. “If the sales volume is conservatively estimated to be about 1.5 million this year, if the supply chain and delivery are done well, we are also willing to hit the annual target of 2 million vehicles.”
The cost of upstream raw materials is gradually transferred to the vehicle end, and the market is particularly concerned about the recent sales. Among the above-mentioned car enterprises, except Weilai, the rest have raised their prices in the near future, involving models covering the price band of 70000 to 350000. However, it is clear that the price increase has not had an impact on sales.
Supply chain pressure mainly comes from two aspects: power battery and chip. The former is restricted by lithium resources and the price rises, while the latter, especially the supply chain of basic chips, is blocked. In terms of power battery, the price of lithium carbonate per ton has increased from 60000 yuan to 500000 yuan, and the theoretical cost of each 50kwh vehicle will increase by 13000 yuan (iron lithium battery) / 15000 yuan (ternary battery). The bulk purchase of basic chips has also affected the gross profit margin of some auto enterprises.
In this context, the market has different expectations for the sales of new energy vehicles this year. Optimists see it as high as 5.5 million or even 6 million, while conservative voices believe that the sales will be less than 5 million.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the new car price is not the primary factor affecting the demand for new energy vehicles, because it still has advantages over the full life cycle price of fuel vehicles, and the consumption habits of car buyers have changed. It is expected that vehicle manufacturers and battery manufacturers will face certain gross profit margin pressure this year, and the disturbance of price rise to orders is expected to be about one month. Due to the current abundant orders of new energy vehicle enterprises, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in March is expected to reach a record high. In the short term, April may be a relative low point of orders. However, considering the continuous iterative upgrading of new products, it is expected that 2022 will still be a boom year for new energy vehicles, maintaining the forecast of 5.5 million new energy vehicle sales this year.
Zhu Yulong, an expert in the automotive industry, gave a conservative expectation of 4.5 million vehicles this year and said it would be difficult to ensure growth in 2023. Zhu Yulong recently wrote that the impact of price increases will gradually be reflected in the second quarter. The sales volume of products above 200000 yuan will not be greatly affected; It is in the price sensitive zone of 1 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 00000; Among the products below 100000, the original model design with a single vehicle power of 35kwh as a subsidy can no longer be realized.
