In March, Zhengzhou, Harbin and Fuzhou successively issued documents or stated that they would adjust the loan restriction, purchase restriction or sales restriction policies, becoming the first provincial capital cities to adjust the restrictive policies of real estate, which also means that the policy adjustment on the demand side of real estate is expanding from the third and fourth tier cities to some second tier cities with high market pressure
According to the statistics of Zhuge housing search data research center, as of the end of March, more than 70 cities across the country have adjusted policies related to real estate this year. The adjustment direction involves adjusting purchase and sale restrictions, reducing the proportion of down payment, increasing the amount of provident fund loans, reducing housing loan interest rates, issuing house purchase subsidies and other aspects
Wang yeqiang, director of the real estate professional committee of the Chinese society of urban economics and director of the theoretical research office of the Institute of ecological civilization of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that current policy adjustment takes into account relief factors and a certain trend of "deregulation", but a more appropriate explanation is a kind of "optimization" behavior "the central government has further deepened its understanding of the functional positioning of the real estate market. Under the trend of differentiation of the real estate market, it emphasizes the implementation of policies according to the city, supports the commercial housing market, better meets the reasonable housing needs of buyers, strengthens the expectation guidance, and the real estate regulation and control policies are more complete, more refined and more people-oriented."
Affected by multiple factors such as the epidemic situation, market expectations and the fundamentals of real estate enterprises, the real estate industry is still at a "trough". Experts interviewed believed that in the future, more cities will follow up and optimize restrictive policies to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market from the third and fourth tier cities to the second tier provincial capitals, what are the main characteristics of the real estate demand side policy adjustment? Why did the three provincial capitals take the lead in starting policy adjustment? Which cities may follow up in the future?
three provincial capitals took the lead in optimizing regulation
On March 1, Zhengzhou issued a notice on promoting the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry, focusing on new provisions on five aspects of policies, including supporting reasonable housing demand, improving housing market supply and increasing credit financing support among them, Zhengzhou has adjusted the loan restriction policy and made it clear to reduce the personal housing consumption burden. Specifically, for families who own a house and have settled the corresponding house purchase loans, in order to improve their living conditions and apply for loans again to buy ordinary commercial houses, banking financial institutions implement the first house loan policy. In addition, it is proposed to increase the investment of individual housing mortgage loans and reduce the interest rate of housing loans.
Li Yujia, chief researcher of Guangdong housing policy research center, believes that after this policy adjustment, the recognition standard of Zhengzhou's first house has changed from "recognizing both houses and loans" to "recognizing both houses and loans", making Zhengzhou the first city to cancel "recognizing both houses and loans" among hot cities.
Zhengzhou also proposed that if children and close relatives work and live in Zheng, the elderly should be encouraged to join their relatives in Zheng for the elderly, and their families should be allowed to buy a new set of housing this is interpreted by the market and the purchase restriction policy is adjusted. Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of E-House Research Institute, said that this provision increased the number of houses that eligible families can buy.
22 days after Zhengzhou released the new policy on property market regulation, on March 23, the Harbin government announced that it planned to abolish the "Ha Zheng ban GUI [2018] No. 12" document, which means that Harbin will no longer implement the sales restriction policy of six districts in the main urban area, and will no longer strictly implement the policies of increasing provident fund loan conditions and differentiated housing credit.
thus, Harbin became the first provincial capital city to announce explicitly that it plans to abolish the regulation and control policy document this year, especially the first provincial capital city to cancel the sales restriction
Meng Xinxin, an analyst of the index division of the China Index Research Institute, pointed out to the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that the introduction of demand side support policies should be appropriate. While the commercial housing market supports reasonable housing demand, it is still necessary to resolutely curb real estate speculation, and sales restriction is an important means to balance support reasonable housing demand and curb real estate speculation.
Tao Han, deputy general manager of E-House Harbin, told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that Harbin has used many policy tools, but the real estate market is still not optimistic, which has become an important background for the city to cancel sales restrictions
Fuzhou is the latest provincial capital to launch demand side policy adjustment 330, twenty-first Century, the economic report reported to the real estate registration and trading center of Fuzhou. Staff said that from now on, non Fuzhou five city registered residence families (including Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan) can purchase an ordinary housing under 144 square meters in five cities, and no need to provide proof of social security or personal tax for more than one year or more in the past two years. new house purchase is still restricted by the sales policy. Compared with Zhengzhou, the purchase restriction policy in Fuzhou is more loose.
real estate policy adjustment enters 2.0 stage
Zhengzhou, Harbin and Fuzhou have become the first provincial capitals to adjust the loan restriction, purchase restriction or sales restriction policies, forming a certain wind vane significance of real estate policy adjustment 21st Century Business Herald reporter found that the real estate market pressure of the three cities is large, with both common and individual characteristics
The real estate destocking cycle is an important indicator. According to the data of Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, as of February this year, the destocking cycles of Zhengzhou, Harbin and Fuzhou were 12.9 months, 48.5 months and 19.6 months respectively, and the destocking cycles of 32 second tier cities in the same period were 14.8 months. Except that Zhengzhou's destocking cycle is slightly lower than the average of second tier cities, Harbin and Fuzhou are higher than the average. Among them, Harbin's destocking cycle is the second highest among 100 cities, second only to Xining's 50.6 months.
Moreover, in February this year, the transaction area of Zhengzhou, Harbin and Fuzhou decreased month on month by 35%, 33% and 48% respectively. In the same period, the de stocking cycle of Zhengzhou, Harbin and Fuzhou increased year on year, with month on month increases of 5%, 13% and 18% respectively, and year-on-year increases of 96%, 61% and 17% respectively.
According to the 100 city price index of China's real estate index system, in February this year, the average prices of new houses in Zhengzhou, Harbin and Fuzhou were 12500 yuan / m2, 9600 yuan / m2 and 17200 yuan / m2 respectively, down 0.08%, 0.01% and flat month on month respectively. Over the same period, the average price of new houses in 100 cities was 16200 yuan / m2, up 0.03% month on month.
the poor performance of real estate market is the common reason for the adjustment of restrictive policies in the three provincial capitals. In addition, the three cities also have personality characteristics.
Among the three cities, the performance of housing price market in Harbin is relatively poor. According to the public data of Harbin municipal government, Harbin's GDP in 2021 was 535.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, 2.6 percentage points lower than the national GDP growth rate. Among them, investment in real estate development decreased by 14.6%.
Harbin is dominated by the tertiary industry. In 2020, the added value of the tertiary industry accounted for 66% of GDP. Tao Han said that the epidemic has a great impact on the service industry in Harbin, and the income and cash flow of many property buyers are unstable. Since the fourth quarter of last year, the property market in Harbin has mainly just needed to buy houses, with a transaction area of more than 80-90 square meters and a total price of more than 800000 yuan. The improved demand tends to be conservative.
The downturn in the property market was transmitted to the land market. According to the data of the marketing department of E-House Harbin company, there were 34 operating land supplies in Harbin in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 47.5%, and 28 transactions, a year-on-year decrease of 61%. In 2021, the ratio of land supply and demand in Harbin was 1.48, which was in a state of oversupply, the market was cold and the power was insufficient. From January to February this year, there was no supply or transaction of operating land in Harbin, and the market entered a blank period. The government's income from land transfer decreased.
Zhengzhou real estate market is also facing certain pressure. According to Kerui data, since 2017, the supply and demand of housing in Zhengzhou has been in a state of oversupply. Last year, the real estate market was affected by the epidemic and flood, and the turnover of commercial housing was 9.48 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 24.45%. This year, the number of unsalable houses has increased, and the overall confidence of the market is insufficient.
Fuzhou market also oversupply. In addition, Li Yujia said that the data of the seventh national census showed that the ten-year growth rate of the permanent population in Fuzhou was only 4 percentage points higher than that in Fujian Province, and the population aggregation was not enough. The adjustment of purchase restriction policy in Fuzhou is also directly related to the establishment of a national central city in Fuzhou, the increase of population agglomeration in Fuzhou and the promotion of economic development.
Overall, Li Yujia believes that the current real estate policy adjustment has entered the 2.0 stage. From the third and fourth tier cities to the second tier provincial capitals, restrictive measures may enter a new round of "exit tide" at present, the decline of the property market in various places is obvious, which has affected the normal circulation of the whole real estate chain, and then affected the sustainability of local finance. On the premise of maintaining "no speculation in housing and housing", it is inevitable for some cities to withdraw from restrictive measures.
regulation policy optimization shows "multi-point flowering"
Meng Xinxin believes that optimizing the purchase, loan and sales restriction policies is mainly based on the second tier cities with high market pressure, and most third and fourth tier cities are still loose in terms of purchase restrictions. Therefore, optimizing loan restrictions may be an important means to adjust restrictive policies.
In the policy adjustments of various regions in the first three months of this year sorted out by Zhuge housing search data research center, more than half of the policies are related to housing loans, including reducing the housing loan interest rate, reducing the down payment ratio, increasing the amount of provident fund loans (reducing the down payment ratio of provident fund loans) or relaxing the conditions of provident fund loans. Some cities have launched targeted preferential policies for new citizens such as talents and farmers, while some cities have relaxed the housing loan requirements as a whole.
in terms of reducing the mortgage interest rate, the mortgage interest rate of Hangzhou, Kunming, Shenzhen, Beijing, Shanghai, Fuzhou and other cities has been reduced this year, for example, the commercial loan interest rate of the first house in Beijing was reduced to 5.15% in February, and the commercial loan interest rate of the second house was reduced to 5.65%. In March, the interest rates of the first house loan and the second house loan in 103 key cities monitored by the shell Research Institute were 5.34% and 5.6% respectively, 30 and 31 basis points higher than that in December last year.
In terms of reducing the proportion of down payment, for example, Yulin stipulates that the amount of commercial loans for new citizens to buy their first and second homes this year will be increased to 80% and 70% of the total price of the house purchase contract respectively; In March this year, Wenzhou housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau publicly responded on the online political platform of Wenzhou, and the proportion of down payment of commercial loan for the first house in Wenzhou decreased to 20%; Around the Spring Festival, some banks in Chongqing began to implement the minimum down payment of 20% for the first house and 40% for the second house.
In terms of increasing the amount of provident fund loans (reducing the down payment ratio of provident fund loans), Beihai reduced the minimum down payment ratio of second set of housing or second application for housing provident fund loans from 60% to 40% in January; In January, Ningbo increased the amount of provident fund loan for the first house of eligible families with two or three children from Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) yuan / household to 800000 yuan / household; Since March this year, the maximum amount of provident fund loans for the first and second houses in Nanning has been increased to 700000 yuan and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) yuan respectively;
Jinan, Qingdao, Zigong, Zhuzhou, Jinzhong, Zhongshan, Xinxiang, Tangshan, Nanchang, Xuancheng and other cities have also adjusted the provident fund loan amount or provident fund loan conditions, or increased the loan amount or reduced the difficulty of use.
In addition, in order to support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, help talents, farmers and other specific groups to solve housing problems and promote housing consumption, Zhuhai, Baoding, Yulin, Luzhou, Nanchong, Guigang, Shaoxing, Yanji, Nanxun, Hengyang and other cities have launched housing subsidy policies this year.
local real estate policy optimization directions and efforts vary Shell Research Institute chief analyst Xu Xiaole told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that there are differences in the real estate market, population structure and actual housing demand in different cities, which determines the different regulation policies among different cities, which is also due to the performance of urban policies.
What is the effect of policy adjustment in key cities? From the data and interviews, the current effect may still be relatively limited.
A person from a real estate enterprise in Zhengzhou told the 21st Century Business Herald that Zhengzhou new deal full moon has a certain effect, but because the expectations of the vast majority of home buyers have not improved, the boosting effect on the market is general
According to the 100 city price index of China's real estate index system, the average price of new houses in Zhengzhou in March was 12400 yuan / m2, down 0.27% month on month. In the same period, the average price of new houses in 100 cities across the country was 16200 yuan / m2, up 0.03% month on month.
Tao Han pointed out that the epidemic situation in Harbin is still repeated, and the policy effect is not clear Tao Han believes that at present, the policy of Harbin has bottomed out, but the purchasing power of home buyers is still difficult to build with strong support. Weak second tier cities like Harbin may need 3-5 months to usher in the bottom of the market due to multiple factors such as epidemic situation, industry, income and population. During this period, house prices may continue to decline. The repair of Harbin market will take longer.
Fuzhou's policy adjustment is too short, and the effect still needs to be further tested by the market.
In Wang yeqiang's view, among the cities with strong policy adjustment at present, Harbin has great pressure on real estate and is relatively special. Therefore, under the guidance of the implementation of the spirit of urban policy regulation, it is planned to abolish the document "Ha Zheng ban GUI [2018] No. 12". Other cities under greater pressure in the real estate market may also adopt this approach, or even adopt more relaxed policies according to the actual situation.
demand side policy adjustment is not the only direction
No matter how strong the policy adjustment is, in the future, more cities will follow up and adjust the real estate policy, which has become the consensus in the industry
Wang yeqiang said that affected by the epidemic, there is great economic pressure at present. At the end of last year, the central economic work conference and this year's government work report stressed the need to support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of property buyers on the premise of adhering to the principle of "housing without speculation", and promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry, indicating that the central government has further deepened its understanding of the functional positioning of the real estate market.
"This is a positive signal for the real estate market." Wang yeqiang said. In addition, at present, the overall real estate market is at a low ebb. There is no doubt that more cities will follow up and relax the restrictive policies to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
According to Li Yujia, under the current trend of high house prices, large new houses and luxury houses, the purchasing power of rigid demand is weak in terms of income and expectation as a whole. In order to release and activate requirements, improvement requirements must be activated. In the context of promoting housing consumption, supporting reasonable housing demand and promoting a virtuous cycle of the real estate industry, it is more reasonable to adjust the purchase and sale restriction policies. Therefore, the purchase restriction policies of non hot cities may usher in adjustment.
Similarly, Xu Xiaole believes that cities with high inventory pressure and weak market resilience at this stage, such as second and third tier cities in the north, may adjust other restrictive policies, including purchase restrictions.
Wang yeqiang said that first tier cities have always been strictly monitored by real estate policies. Under the positive policy signal, the excessively strict policies in the early stage will be moderately fine tuned Yan Yuejin also believes that if the market of the first tier cities faces great pressure, there is also the possibility of policy fine-tuning. However, due to the relatively sufficient purchasing power of the first tier cities, even the policy fine-tuning is not strong. Demand side policy adjustment is not necessarily the only direction. For example, moderately relaxing the conditions for real estate enterprises to apply for commercial housing pre-sale is also one of the ways to relieve the financial pressure of real estate enterprises.
In fact, some policies for real estate enterprises have been launched. For example, in the new policy on real estate market regulation issued in Zhengzhou on March 1, it is clear to reduce the minimum proportion of land auction deposit to 20% of the listing price, and the land transfer fee can be paid in installments within one year after the transaction.
Xu Xiaole believes that the rescue policy for the risk of real estate enterprises is also the key to policy adjustment in the future.
Wang yeqiang believes that the policy adjustment direction will not involve the "three red lines" and the "two red lines" for the scale and proportion of bank housing loans. Whether it is "three red lines" or "two red lines", it is an important measure for the central government to treat and heal real estate enterprises and resolve market risks. It is also the basis and premise for promoting the virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry.
