A series of real estate stabilization policies began to take effect. In March, the residential transaction area in key cities increased by nearly 50% month on month. Especially in late March, the transaction area in key cities rebounded significantly.
However, from a year-on-year perspective, the residential transaction area in key cities still decreased by nearly 50% in March. In the first quarter as a whole, the performance scale of the top 100 real estate enterprises decreased significantly by 47% year-on-year, and the performance growth rate of barracks enterprises varied greatly.
Industry insiders believe that under the comprehensive influence of various factors such as the repeated epidemic situation, the rhythm arrangement of real estate enterprises' goods promotion and the lack of consumer purchasing power, the sales performance of real estate enterprises in the first quarter was poor, and the overall market was still depressed. It is expected that under the influence of more supporting policies, the market turnover or bottoming in the second quarter will stabilize, and the year-on-year decline will also narrow.
the turnover in late 3 month rebounded significantly
with the support of a series of favorable policies, commercial housing transactions in key cities rebounded significantly in late March
According to the data of Kerui Research Center, from the weekly data, the transactions of commercial houses in 30 key monitoring cities continued to decline in the 10th to 12th weeks, and the transactions in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Nanjing fell for three consecutive weeks. In the 13th week, the turnover of key cities rebounded significantly, which has basically returned to the weekly turnover scale at the beginning of the month, and the turnover of Shenzhen, Qingdao and other cities increased. On the whole, in March, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 key monitoring cities increased by 48% month on month, including 7% month on month in first tier cities and 56% month on month in 26 second and third tier cities.
However, from a year-on-year perspective, the year-on-year decline in the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 key monitoring cities expanded to 47%, and the overall market is still depressed.
Among them, the year-on-year decline in market transactions in first tier cities expanded to 49%. Subject to the repeated occurrence of epidemic prevention and control, the real estate markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen were in a state of "semi suspension", and the year-on-year decline in transactions was significantly expanded. The transactions in Beijing and Guangzhou were also less than expected. The market performance was weak in the first and middle of March, and the average de conversion rate of new opening projects was as low as 30%. With the deregulation of residential mortgage loans, most banks lowered mortgage interest rates and shortened the lending cycle. In late 2010, the markets in Beijing and Guangzhou began to recover, but the overall market heat was far from that in the same period last year. The markets of 26 second - and third tier cities showed signs of weakness, with a year-on-year decline of 46%. Due to the high base in the same period last year and the rebound of the epidemic in China, more than 60% of the transactions in second and third tier cities were halved year-on-year, and Changchun and Changzhou fell by more than 70%.
In some cities with better epidemic control, the market bottomed out and stabilized. For example, the year-on-year decline in transactions in Haikou narrowed to 3%. Another example is the large volume of transactions in Xi'an, with a year-on-year increase of 32%, the average removal rate of new opening projects reaches 50%, and there are projects "sunshine" in hot sectors such as high tech and port administration zones. After the implementation of the rescue policy, the market of pressure cities does recover, but the duration is short, which confirms that the transformation of urban strength largely depends on the relationship between market supply and demand. For example, in Zhengzhou, the turnover rebounded significantly in the first half of the month, but due to the far oversupply of the property market, the turnover fell again in the second half of the month, and the average de conversion rate of new opening projects was as low as 20%.
real estate enterprises' performance has decreased greatly, and the growth rate of each camp is greatly divided
from the sales performance of real estate enterprises in the first quarter, the overall performance is not ideal
According to the data of Kerui Research Center, in March, the top 100 real estate enterprises realized a sales trading amount of 511.54 billion yuan in a single month, an increase of 27.4% month on month, which was significantly lower than that in the same period of previous years. From a year-on-year perspective, the decline reached 52.7%, an increase of 5.5 percentage points compared with the decline in February; Compared with January, the performance scale decreased by 2.6%. In terms of cumulative performance, from January to March, the overall performance scale of the top 100 real estate enterprises decreased significantly by 47% year-on-year, which is also lower than the same period level in 2020. The first quarter had a dismal start.
The data of China Index Research Institute also showed that from January to March, the average sales of top 100 real estate enterprises was 16.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 47.2%; Among them, there were 2 real estate enterprises with sales exceeding 100 billion yuan, a decrease of 3 compared with the same period last year; There were 46 real estate enterprises exceeding 10 billion yuan, a decrease of 30 compared with the same period last year. The average equity sales of top 100 real estate enterprises was 11.95 billion yuan, and the average equity sales area was 851000 square meters, down 47.6% and 48.1% respectively year-on-year.
From January to March, the sales growth of different camps was quite differentiated, and the first and third camps increased year-on-year. According to the statistics of the central index Institute, there are two camps with more than 100 billion yuan, and the average sales decreased by 22.1% year-on-year. There are two first camps (50-100 billion), and the average sales increased by 19.4% year-on-year, which is the fastest growing among the four camps. There are 18 enterprises in the second camp (20-50 billion), and the average growth rate of sales is - 0.7%; There are 24 third camps (10-20 billion), with an average sales growth rate of 6.2%. There are 35 companies in the fourth camp, and the average growth rate of sales is - 22.3%.
Among them, the sales volume of country garden was 132.89 billion yuan, Vanke 104.5 billion yuan, 6 Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) 8.83 billion yuan and rongchuang 72.4 billion yuan.
second quarter market turnover or bottom stabilization
For the reasons for the poor sales performance of most large-scale real estate enterprises, Kerui Research Center believes that on the one hand, it is affected by the market downturn and lack of industry confidence, on the other hand, the promotion and marketing enthusiasm of enterprises themselves are generally not high.
Yihan think tank also believes that there are four main reasons: first, the repeated epidemic situation has affected the promotion of goods, house viewing and house purchase. Second, there are differences in urban differentiation, and there is no foundation for demand release. Third, under the strict constraints of policies, effective demand is difficult to achieve. Fourth, lack of purchasing power and negative income. In addition, the rhythm of pushing goods, the arrangement of pushing goods at each node, and the construction progress of goods are the key factors affecting the sales of enterprises.
Recently, the central and local governments have continuously released signals to stabilize real estate. The financial commission of the State Council stressed the need to timely study and put forward effective countermeasures to prevent and resolve risks. Subsequently, the CBRC, the central bank, the CSRC and the safe deployed the implementation work one after another. The Ministry of finance also said that it did not have the conditions to expand the pilot cities of real estate tax reform this year.
Kerui Research Center predicts that the real estate financial policy may moderately control the rhythm and intensity of deleveraging. First, the overall financing environment of real estate enterprises is expected to be significantly improved, and state-owned enterprises, central enterprises and high-quality private enterprises may benefit more. Secondly, residents' mortgage loans may continue to be deregulated, so as to ensure the improvement of just needs and the purchase consumption of new citizens, and give new citizens a certain amount of credit policy support.
However, Kerui Research Center believes that the regulation and control policies of first tier cities will still be strictly implemented, especially the purchase restriction policy is difficult to exit, but some contractive policies may be moderately unbound. For example, Shenzhen will raise the reference price of second-hand houses. Recently, the "four limits" regulation in some second tier cities has shown signs of loosening. For example, Zhengzhou and Fuzhou partially relaxed purchase restrictions, Zhengzhou partially relaxed loan restrictions, and Harbin completely cancelled sales restrictions. It is expected that the second tier and third and fourth tier cities may follow the example of partially relaxing or even completely abolishing the "four restrictions" policy, and the pressure cities will stimulate the demand side, such as accelerating the implementation of shed reform and old reform, and increasing the proportion of monetized resettlement; Fiscal and tax incentives to support the market, house purchase subsidies, tax relief, etc.
Looking to the future, Kerui Research Center believes that the market bottom may come in the second quarter, when the transaction may stabilize at the bottom, and the year-on-year decline will also be narrowed. However, based on the urban economic fundamentals, the current situation of the real estate market, potential house purchase demand, residents' purchasing power and other factors, the urban markets may intensify the differentiation: first, the first and second tier cities will probably stabilize in April and may. Among them, the first tier cities have the strongest market demand and purchasing power, and the real estate market may take the lead in stabilizing. The market demand of second tier cities is relatively abundant, but the purchasing power of residents is overdrawn, and the real estate market may stabilize in turn. Secondly, it takes a long time for the market of the third and fourth tier cities to stabilize. Among them, the real estate market in the strong third tier cities may not stabilize until the second half of the year or even the end of the year, and the real estate market in the weak third and fourth tier cities may continue to consolidate.
