Matters:
Kerry released the sales data of the top 100 real estate enterprises in March 2022.
Ping An View:
The decline of top 100 transactions has expanded, and the sales pressure has not slowed down. Due to the sluggish demand and repeated epidemic, the sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises were further under pressure before the Spring Festival in March. The monthly sales volume was 579.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52.6%, and the sales area was 36.37 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 57.2%, an increase of 6.1 and 14.6 percentage points compared with February. Affected by this, the cumulative decline in sales and sales area of the top 100 real estate enterprises in the first quarter expanded to 47.1% and 49.1%.
The performance of real estate enterprises is differentiated, and the sales target tends to be cautious. From the perspective of specific real estate enterprises, country garden's full caliber sales in the first quarter was 132.9 billion yuan, leading real estate enterprises. Among the 28 real estate enterprises under key monitoring, the sales decline of central state-owned enterprises and strong credit private enterprises is relatively controllable. The sales of China Resources Land, Greentown China, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) fell by less than 25% in a single month, down by 20%, 21.1%, 21.9%, 22.6% and 24.3% respectively year-on-year; Longhu group, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Jinmao, etc. announced the sales target for 2022, which increased slightly or decreased slightly compared with the actual sales in 2021.
The policy has stepped into substantial improvement, and the second quarter is an important observation window. From the deregulation of "house and loan recognition" in Zhengzhou, the reduction of down payment ratio in Nanning and other places, and the deregulation of purchase restrictions in Fuzhou, the policy intensity has been significantly increased in 2022. With the tone set by the financial stability and Development Commission of the State Council on March 16 and the active voice of many ministries and commissions, the follow-up policy improvement is expected to continue to increase. At the same time, considering the policy time lag and the impact of the epidemic, it is expected that the repair of the real estate market will still take time, and the second quarter is an important observation window. At the same time, due to the differences in fundamentals and inventory around the city, urban areas are expected to show differentiation, and some third and fourth tier adjustment times may be relatively longer.
Investment suggestion: the sales decline of the top 100 real estate enterprises expanded in March, reflecting the unabated pressure on the development of the industry, there is still room for improvement on the policy side, and the sector valuation is expected to continue to repair. In the medium and long term, with the withdrawal or contraction of some real estate enterprises in the painful period of this round, the overall pattern of the industry is expected to be optimized, and the market share and profitability of brand real estate enterprises with financing and control advantages are expected to be improved. The development sector is mainly concerned about: one is the strong operating and high credit enterprises with relaxed short-term benefit policies and improved gross profit margin at the land acquisition end, which are expected to seize market share in the medium and long term, such as Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , etc; One is the subject matter of policy game elasticity with certain support for Fundamentals, such as Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , etc. The valuation of the property management sector has reached an all-time low, and the downward pressure of the quarterly and mid-term guidelines of the annual report has been gradually released. With the continuous deregulation of policies and the improvement of the capital side of development enterprises, it is expected to bring the valuation repair of high-quality property management enterprises, focusing on such services as country garden service, poly property, xinchengyue service, Jinke service, Xingsheng business, etc.
Risk tips: 1) reduce the risk of supply adequacy: if the local city continues to be cold and the new land storage scale of real estate enterprises is insufficient, it will have a negative impact on the subsequent supply of goods, and then affect the sales, commencement, investment and completion of the industry. 2) Large scale impairment risk of real estate enterprises: if the de industrialization pressure of the real estate market exceeds expectations and the sales are greatly changed from price to quantity, it will bring some impairment risk of high price in the early stage. 3) Policy care is less than expected risk.
