panel overview
On Friday morning, A-Shares opened low and went high. The Shanghai index took the lead in turning red, and the Shenzhen Composite Index led the rise. On the disk, shipping ports, tourist hotels, banks, games, airports, wine making, cultural media, securities, chemical fertilizer, trade, railways and highways, pesticides and other industries led the rise; Traditional Chinese medicine, medicine, engineering construction, biological products, decoration, medical services, real estate and other industries led the decline. In terms of theme stocks, NFT concept, tax-free concept, virtual digital people, mobile games, online tourism, cloud games, film and television concept and Sino Russian trade concept led the rise; Covid-19 drugs, super fungi, heparin concept, traditional Chinese medicine concept, recombinant protein, CRO, electronic ID card and industrial marijuana led the decline.
message surface
central bank: increase financial support for important Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supply of soybeans and oil
The people’s Bank of China issued the opinions on financial support in 2022 and comprehensively promoting the key work of rural revitalization, proposing to increase financial support for important Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supplies such as soybeans and oil. Focusing on promoting the increase of soybean and oil production and the supply of “vegetable basket” products, optimize the allocation of credit resources and continue to increase credit investment.
put 550 billion yuan in 4 days and turn on full power for “water replenishment” at the end of the quarter
On March 30, the people’s Bank of China continued to carry out 150 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, and launched 100 billion level investment for four consecutive working days to protect the liquidity at the end of the quarter. In the view of insiders, the people’s Bank of China has significantly increased its open market operation recently, highlighting its attitude of maintaining reasonable and abundant liquidity. In this case, the capital is expected to be stable and cross quarter.
Bureau of Statistics: the official manufacturing PMI in March was 49.5%
In March, the purchasing manager index (PMI) of China’s manufacturing industry was 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, lower than the critical point, and the overall prosperity level of the manufacturing industry fell somewhat. From the perspective of enterprise scale, the PMI of large enterprises was 51.3%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, higher than the critical point; The PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 48.5%, down 2.9 percentage points from the previous month, lower than the critical point; The PMI of small enterprises was 46.6%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, lower than the critical point.
Jufeng viewpoint
pre market judgment: the European and American stock markets made a collective correction overnight, and it is expected that A-Shares will open slightly lower. If A-share technology stocks can stop falling and rebound, the market upside space may be opened; On the contrary, it will continue to maintain the concussion trend of the box.
The three major indexes of A-Shares collectively opened low, and the real estate sector was divided; Pharmaceutical, medical and other sectors opened significantly lower. After the opening, the stock index rose in shock, and the sectors benefiting from the post epidemic era such as tourism, hotels, catering and port shipping rose sharply. Covid-19 drugs and covid-19 detection related to the epidemic situation have been greatly corrected. The real driver of the index is the banking and brewing sectors.
However, compared with yesterday, there is an obvious rotation phenomenon on the disk today. Yesterday’s strong sector, except for bank stocks, had a sharp correction in early trading; Similarly, tourism and shipping, which fell sharply in early trading yesterday, were at the forefront of the increase list in early trading. In this way, it also confirms our previous judgment “the current market is not sustainable. The Shanghai index builds a Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) 00 point box and the gem builds a 24502750 point box. If the individual stocks that suddenly pull up do not catch up, they should dare to cash in; for the individual stocks that fall sharply but the fundamentals have not changed, they can buy low. Before the track stocks stop falling, even if the market rebounds, the upward space will not open.”
From the trend of early trading today, driven by heavyweights such as banks and wine making, the Shanghai composite index broke through the rebound peak in late March. If it can break through 3300 points, it is expected to open up upward space, and the gem index also rebounded driven by technology stocks. It may mean that after the Qingming Festival, A-Shares will catch up!
investment suggestions : at present, the main factors that suppress the sentiment of A-share investors have changed, from the situation in Ukraine and the Fed’s interest rate increase in the early stage to the epidemic situation in China and the slowdown of economic growth. The construction of A-share market will be accelerated in the form of stable growth and policy expectation in the future. It is suggested to focus on three main lines: first, companies with quarterly growth exceeding expectations; Second, new and old infrastructure benefiting from steady growth; Third, aviation, airport, tourism and other sectors facing the inflection point in the post epidemic era.
