At the end of the first quarter, how will the A-share market perform next? Recently, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) , Aijian securities, Anxin securities, China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) and other securities companies released investment strategy reports to prospect the market in the second quarter. The reporter found that most securities companies were optimistic about the overall trend of the A-share market in the second quarter.
steady growth policy helps
A-Shares or entering the uplink
So far this year, as of March 31, there has been a major correction in the three major A-share indexes. Among them, the Shanghai index has fallen by 10.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index has fallen by 18.44% and the gem index has fallen by 19.96%.
For the performance of the A-share market in the first quarter, Aijian Securities said that in the first quarter of 2022, there was a sudden multi factor resonance and the market adjusted significantly. After the decline in the first quarter, the market valuation was low and the safety margin was improved, laying a good foundation for market stabilization in the second quarter. It is expected that the market will rebound in the second quarter, and the opportunity is better than that in the first quarter. It is suggested to look for undervalued varieties from the perspective of valuation and performance.
Anxin Securities said that the “Nike type” trend of A-Shares in the second quarter was firm and expected. From the perspective of configuration, investors should keep their concentration at present, which is not suitable for switching back and forth. The consensus of the market will focus on the low position, looking for growth + short duration.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that A-Shares have returned to the normal driven by fundamentals from emotion, and will enter the key period of policy development. In the past two weeks, the epidemic has had a great impact on the economy, the necessity and urgency of steady growth policies have increased rapidly, and a number of policy combinations will be gradually launched and form a joint force. It is expected that the economy will gradually repair in the second quarter, and A-Shares will gradually stabilize and enter the medium-term upward channel.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) chief strategist Zhang Xia told reporters, “in April, the market will be in the stage of shock and bottom grinding, and it is difficult for the index to rise or fall sharply. Structurally, in the context of steady growth, we should pay more attention to the most upstream links of various industrial chains and pay attention to the core industries and stock selection logic of ‘demand comes from steady growth and profits go upstream’.”
Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) said that looking forward to the second quarter, it is certain that the credit stabilizes and the profit bottoms down, which will lead to the continuation of the weak pattern of shock bottoming in the market, and the industries with undervalued value and improved profits may dominate.
securities companies focus on
three themes
Although brokers have different views on the trend of A-share market in the second quarter, the main investment direction has surfaced. The reporter of Securities Daily found that the three themes related to “steady growth”, “undervalued value” and “science and technology” were concentrated and optimistic.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) said that under the background of “steady growth”, the asset quality and internal risk appetite of the large financial sector represented by banks are expected to improve. At the same time, the large financial sector has obvious advantages of undervalued value and high dividend yield, which has medium and long-term allocation value.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) said that the decision-making level continued to release the signal of “steady growth”, and the sectors of state-owned enterprises, real estate, infrastructure, banks and securities companies were both safe and policy driven.
Aijian Securities believes that consumption is an important part of “steady growth”. From the perspective of industry growth and valuation, there are still trading opportunities in cyclical sectors such as mining, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) and nonferrous metals. On the basis of valuation and repair, we can pay attention to electronics, food and beverage, electrical equipment, automobile, household appliances, mechanical equipment, national defense and military industry and other industries.
For the reasons why securities companies are optimistic about the theme of “stable growth”, Wu Qihong, chief researcher of Guangzhou Bandung Securities Consulting Co., Ltd., told the Securities Daily: “in the first quarter, especially in March, the economy was greatly affected by the epidemic. After the epidemic was controlled, it is necessary to increase infrastructure investment to achieve ‘steady growth’. Banking, architectural decoration and other industries related to the theme of ‘steady growth’ are expected to usher in the repair market in the second quarter.”
Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) believes that in the second quarter, attention should be paid to building materials and real estate in line with the “steady growth” orientation and with relatively low valuation, and new infrastructure, new energy, tourism hotels and other sectors with improved profit margin. The main line of the first half is the industries with low valuation and stable profits, including banking, real estate, construction, etc; In the latter half of the period, industries that focus on the improvement of profit margin include high growth fields such as new infrastructure and mass consumption fields that are constantly repaired.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) it is suggested to focus on “steady growth” and focus on the balanced layout of “two low positions”. First, for the varieties with relatively low valuation, it is suggested that high-quality developers, building materials and home furnishing enterprises that pay attention to the expected mitigation of real estate credit risk, communication operators with significantly improved cash flow, and data centers and cloud infrastructure that benefit from “computing from the East and the west”; Second, smart cars and parts, photovoltaic wind power equipment, etc. whose fundamentals are expected to be relatively low, as well as airlines and hotels whose fundamentals are expected to be still low.
In addition to “steady growth” and “undervalued value”, “technology” has also been frequently mentioned by many securities companies China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) said it would focus on five major directions of scientific and technological innovation, namely new energy, new generation information and communication technology, high-end manufacturing, biomedicine and military industry.
Aijian Securities said that scientific and technological growth is an eternal theme. The focus of economic development is on emerging industries, especially advanced manufacturing. There are investment opportunities in industrial motherboards, chips, new energy, the Internet of things, “computing from the east to the west”, artificial intelligence and other sectors.
