Institutional investors believe that the investment opportunities for new chemical materials in the future mainly come from the continuous mismatch between the growing demand brought by new energy and the limited supply brought by the upgrading of industrial structure.
The high prosperity of chemical fertilizer is expected to continue, and the new energy track provides a new profit growth point. For phosphorus chemical enterprises in the past year, it is really "smiling".
On the evening of March 30, "phosphorus chemical leader" Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) ( Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) . SH) disclosed the annual report of 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 12 times, setting a record high since its listing in 1997.
The explanation of Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) is that "the global chemical fertilizer industry is affected by the epidemic, the market supply is insufficient, and the relationship between supply and demand continues to be tight, which has promoted the rise of the price of chemical fertilizer products. With the recovery of China's economy, it has promoted the rise of the market price of chemical products of polyformaldehyde, yellow phosphorus, calcium and other companies".
In fact, from the disclosed performance of phosphorus chemical enterprises, the demand explosion of lithium iron phosphate directly drives the prosperity of "phosphate rock yellow phosphorus phosphoric acid iron phosphate", the resonance of the whole phosphorus chemical industry chain is obvious, and the performance growth is clear, especially the performance of upstream enterprises is explosive growth.
prosperity improves the company's performance
The phosphorus chemical industry chain takes phosphorus ore as raw material and processes the phosphorus in the ore into various products such as phosphorus fertilizer, yellow phosphorus, phosphoric acid and phosphate through chemical methods. Among them, phosphoric acid, monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate are divided into chemical fertilizer grade, industrial grade / food grade according to their purity. Related products are widely used in chemical fertilizer, pesticide, daily chemical, food, electronics, medical treatment, building materials and other industries, with broad downstream demand.
According to Baichuan Yingfu and the document "development status and measures suggestions of China's phosphorus chemical industry", the proportion of phosphorus fertilizer, yellow phosphorus and phosphate in the downstream of phosphorus ore is 73%, 12% and 15% respectively, and the proportion of phosphoric acid, phosphorus pentachloride and phosphorus pentoxide in the downstream of yellow phosphorus is 56%, 25% and 8% respectively.
6 Ningxia Orient Tantalum Industry Co.Ltd(000962) 021 annual report shows that the company's phosphate fertilizer production capacity ranks second in China and fourth in the world. Among them, the company's diammonium phosphate products have a market share of about 27% in China, ranking first in China.
From the operation effect in 2021, Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) effectively brought into play the "advantage of the integration of the whole industrial chain with high self-sufficiency of bulk raw materials such as phosphate rock, phosphoric acid and synthetic ammonia", and gradually achieved the results of transformation and upgrading to non fertilizer businesses such as fine phosphorus chemical industry and fluorine chemical industry.
During the reporting period, Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) achieved an operating revenue of 63.249 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 21.37%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.642 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 123877%. In particular, the net profit attributable to the parent company has reached a record high since its listing.
In fact, not only Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , but also other related listed companies of phosphorus chemical industry that have disclosed their performance in 2021.
Prior to this, the 2021 annual report of Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) ( Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) . SH) showed that the company achieved an operating revenue of 23.607 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.88%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.247 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 583.58% The annual report of Kunming Chuan Jin Nuo Chemical Co.Ltd(300505) ( Kunming Chuan Jin Nuo Chemical Co.Ltd(300505) . SZ) in 2021 shows that the company achieved an operating revenue of 1.536 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.30%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 189 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 355.83%.
"We must be optimistic about the development prospect of phosphorus chemical industry, otherwise we won't invest." On March 31, Kunming Chuan Jin Nuo Chemical Co.Ltd(300505) relevant persons told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that last year's performance growth mainly came from the profit growth of feed grade phosphate and phosphate fertilizer. "There is not much phosphoric acid, but we have invested in the construction of new energy materials and will realize the combination of phosphate and new energy materials in technology and process as soon as possible."
industrial chain growth logic is clear
"Double carbon" will become one of the most important tasks for China's development for a long time in the future. Therefore, institutional investors believe that the investment opportunities for new chemical materials in the future mainly come from the continuous mismatch between the continuous growth demand brought by new energy and the limited supply brought by the upgrading of industrial structure. Therefore, they focus on the links where new energy drives incremental demand and the supply side is limited.
"For example, the investment opportunities of phosphorus chemical industry, the Growth Logic of this industry is very clear." A private equity fund manager in Shanghai told the 21st Century Business Herald that there has always been a shortage of phosphorus ore resources in China, but there is a great demand for iron phosphate downstream. "At the same time, the high prospect of chemical fertilizer still exists, and it is no problem to maintain the prosperity of the industry for at least one or two years."
According to the data, phosphate rock is a mineral resource of strategic significance, which is mainly used for the production of phosphate fertilizer and also for the manufacture of yellow phosphorus, phosphoric acid and phosphate. Phosphate rock and other minerals are listed in the strategic mineral catalogue for the first time in the national mineral resources planning (20162020) approved by the State Council.
The rise of lithium iron phosphate has brought a new growth space to phosphorus chemical enterprises. Lithium battery giants including Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ( Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) . SZ) have begun to actively embrace phosphorus chemical enterprises.
On October 12, 2021, Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) ( Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) . SZ) announced to invest in the construction of Bangpu integrated battery material industrial park project with Ningbo Bangpu, a subsidiary of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) with a total amount of no more than 32 billion yuan to build supporting chemical raw materials for integrated battery materials. On December 24 of the same year, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) also announced that the industrial cooperation project with Guizhou phosphating group was started simultaneously in Kaiyang, Xifeng and Fuquan. Phosphating group will give full play to its advantages in the fields of phosphate mining and beneficiation, phosphate fine chemical industry and utilization of phosphate co associated resources.
"The joint venture project with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is in normal progress." On March 31, Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) relevant persons told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that the cooperation project will help the company seize the development opportunities of new energy market, optimize and upgrade the layout of phosphorus chemical industry chain, give play to the synergistic effects of coal chemical industry, phosphorus chemical industry and Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical Co.Ltd(600618) chemical industry, and improve the company's market competitiveness and sustainable profitability.
Therefore, in the view of a private equity fund manager mentioned above, the Growth Logic of phosphorus chemical industry chain is clear. First, under the background of agrochemical cycle, the high profits of chemical fertilizer will continue to improve the profits of relevant enterprises; Second, in the context of the rapid growth of lithium battery demand, there is a situation that "supply is less than demand" in the industrial chain of "phosphate rock yellow phosphorus phosphoric acid iron phosphate". Both logic make sense, so we continue to be optimistic about the investment opportunities in this industry. "
supply and demand tension has not been resolved
In 2022, the prosperity of phosphorus chemical industry continued the trend of 2021, but the tense situation of phosphorus ore supply and demand has not been solved.
From January to March 2022, China's phosphorus ore market as a whole undertook the stable market in the early stage, and the market price did not fluctuate greatly.
Due to the unstable supply in many places due to the safety inspection, the market supply and demand is tight. At present, most enterprises in Guizhou suspend external quotation, the follow-up volume of new orders is limited, and the supply in Yunnan is limited. However, at present, the mainstream price in the market remains stable, and the ore in Hubei remains stable as a whole. However, the mining enterprises in Yichang stop production for some reason, aggravating the tension of market supply.
Therefore, the stage supply capacity of phosphate rock market is unstable, the market supply is short of demand, and the price rises. Under the condition of tight supply and demand, mining enterprises still have the expectation of raising in the later stage.
Recently, Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) released the announcement on the pre increase of performance in the first quarter, "it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in the first quarter of 2022 will be about 1.7 billion yuan, an increase of 1.345 billion yuan over the same period of the previous year, with a year-on-year increase of 379.35%". One of the reasons is that "the chemical industry has generally continued the climate cycle since 2021, and the sales prices of the company's main products glyphosate, yellow phosphorus and phosphate fertilizer continue to operate at a high level".
In March this year, the market price of yellow phosphorus first fell and then rose. After the price rose to a high at the end of the month, the focus of transaction in the yellow phosphorus Market shifted to a downward direction due to wait-and-see downstream procurement and lower prices by traders. In March, the average price of Southwest yellow phosphorus market was 34864 yuan / ton, an increase of 2030 yuan / ton compared with the average price of last month (32834 yuan / ton), or about 6.18%.
Ren Hairong, an analyst at Longzhong information, believes that the yellow phosphorus market is weak, the downstream procurement and order inquiry enthusiasm is low, the procurement prices of traders are depressed, and the transaction focus of the yellow phosphorus market is slightly loose. Downstream orders are scarce, traders purchase at a lower price, and yellow phosphorus enterprises mainly supply early orders. The trading volume of new orders is small, and the price is close to the low end. "Before and after the Qingming holiday, the on-site trading was light, the sales of yellow phosphorus enterprises were under pressure, and the price remained weak."
At the end of February this year, although the market price of phosphoric acid rose to a high level, the raw materials fell again after March, mainly with minor adjustment. Zongni, an analyst at Longzhong information, believes that at present, the yellow phosphorus in the upstream has fallen slightly, and the high price of phosphoric acid enterprises lacks support. In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic, it is expected that the fluctuation of phosphoric acid market is limited in recent days, mainly stable consolidation.
From the reaction of the secondary market, the leading enterprise of phosphorus chemical industry has risen for two months. Taking Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) as an example, the stock began to rise all the way after hitting a low price of 16.40 yuan on January 28 this year, and hit a phased high of 27.58 yuan on March 29, with a rebound rate of 68%.
Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) chemical industry researcher Yang Hui believes that at present, China's phosphorus ore resources are facing the pressure of shortage. At the same time, with the joint restrictions of various supply side control measures such as carbon neutralization, dual control of energy consumption and capacity indicators, "We will see that some enterprises with leading resource endowment layout will show stronger competitiveness. While the industry profits are more inclined to the upstream, the industry competition pattern will also be continuously optimized. At present, the leading enterprises of phosphorus chemical industry have basically completed the integration of upstream resources, improved industrial chain integration, and have the advantages of sufficient resources, cost and energy consumption indicators."
