2.2 million people participated in the “lottery” to buy Maotai, and the winning rate was comparable to that of a shares. Maotai once again demonstrated the cargo carrying capacity of “top flow”.
On March 31, Maotai’s official e-commerce platform “I Maotai” app launched its first online subscription, attracting more than 2.29 million people to participate in the rush purchase. Among them, 2205509 people applied for Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) wine (year of the renyin tiger) with a price of 2499 yuan. The most difficult to grab is Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) wine (year of the renyin tiger) with a price of 3599 yuan / box. The winning rate is as low as 0.031%, and only 3 people can buy it for every 10000 people.
for the popular “I Maotai”, the expectation of the capital market is another key attempt of Maotai to promote the reform of the sales system. According to the 2021 annual report disclosed by Maotai, Maotai’s direct sales channels contributed 24 billion yuan of revenue in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of more than 81%, which increased the gross profit margin of Maotai liquor from 93.99% to 94.03% in 202 7
At present, the super steady performance growth remains Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) the biggest attraction. According to the annual report of 2021, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) operating revenue exceeded 100 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 106.19 billion yuan, an increase of 11.88% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company exceeded 50 billion yuan, reaching 52.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.34%.
more than 2.2 million people “robbed” Maotai
As soon as it goes online, it becomes “top flow”.
On March 31, the new e-commerce platform “I Maotai” app officially launched by Maotai Group was officially launched, and the first online subscription was opened from 9 to 10 a.m. that day.
according to the official information of Maotai, more than 2.29 million people and 6.22 million people participated actively on that day. Users can view the subscription results of the participating sessions through the “subscription” page or the “subscription form” of the personal center
According to the official introduction of “I Maotai” app, the subscription time is 9:00-10:00 every morning, and the subscription results are publicized at 18:00. On March 31, Maotai disclosed the purchase results of that day. Among them, the most popular is 53% vol500ml Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) wine (year of the tiger in renyin). The price is 2499 yuan / bottle, and the number of applicants is as high as 2205509. Based on the amount of 8934 bottles, the winning rate is only 0.405%.
In addition, there were three Maotai wines purchased online on the same day, which were 500ml Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) liquor (rare), priced at 4599 yuan / bottle; 375 ml × 2 bottles / box of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) wine (year of the tiger), priced at 3599 yuan / box; Maotai 1935 is priced at 1188 yuan per bottle. The number of applicants for these three types of Maotai liquor was 1402254, 1225451 and 1367000 respectively, and the winning rates were 0.25%, 0.031% and 0.99% respectively.
it can be seen that on the first day of the launch of “I Maotai” app, it can be said that “one wine is hard to find”. Behind this is that there is considerable profit space between the official price and the market price, and even attracted a large number of scalpers to participate in rush buying
According to the situation in Guangzhou, the official price of the year of the Tiger Chinese Zodiac wine (i.e. “tiger Mao”) is 2499 yuan, and the market price is more than 3800 yuan; 375 2 year of the tiger lunar new year wine has an official price of 3599 yuan and a market price of more than 4500 yuan; The cheapest Maotai 1935, the official price is 1188 yuan, while the market price is about 1400 yuan.
On the same day, Maotai officials stressed that all applications were notarized by Hangzhou Internet notary office by using blockchain certificate storage technology. The subscription results released by “I Maotai” app also show that the subscription data have been deposited by Hangzhou Internet notary office to ensure fairness and impartiality.
However, some consumers said that the sales volume of “I Maotai” app is too small, which is entirely due to the official rush buying atmosphere, and the routine of “hunger marketing” is too deep; Some consumers also called on Maotai to increase supply.
In fact, on the eve of the launch of “I Maotai”, it has caused a wave of heat on the Internet. On March 29, on the first day that the “I Maotai” app was put on the app store, it rushed to the top of the free list of Apple App store, with 430000 downloads in a single day, becoming an app with the highest download volume and the highest popularity.
It is worth mentioning that the most popular 500ml Feitian Maotai liquor can not be purchased on the “I Maotai” platform for the time being. However, some insiders predict that after “I Maotai” has accumulated operation experience, it will probably launch affordable Pufei, which may affect the price system of Maotai liquor.
Some analysts also believe that the reason why 500ml Feitian Maotai liquor is not directly put into use this time is mainly to promote the smooth online operation of relevant platforms and avoid the excessive focus and speculation of Feitian Maotai liquor in the market.
a key step in Maotai reform
The launch of “I Maotai” is expected by the market to be another important attempt of Maotai to promote the reform of sales system.
As we all know, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) ‘s sales channels are divided into distributors and direct sales. At present, most Maotai liquor is mainly sold through distributors. Taking the 500ml Feitian Maotai as an example, the ex factory price for dealers is 969 yuan / bottle, while the retail price for direct sales channels is 1499 yuan / bottle, with a difference of 530 yuan / bottle, and the end market price is close to 3000 yuan / bottle.
Therefore, increasing the proportion of direct sales channels in Maotai is equivalent to a substantial price increase, which can increase the performance and gross profit margin.
In the early morning of March 31, the 2021 annual report disclosed by Maotai showed that the revenue of Maotai wholesale agency business last year was 82.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.55%; The revenue contributed by direct sales channels to Maotai was 24.029 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 81.5%, accounting for 22.6% of the total revenue, which was significantly higher than 13.5% in 2020.
in addition, from the sales volume in recent two years, the proportion of direct sales channels in Maotai is also increasing significantly. In 2020 and 2021, the sales volume of Maotai wholesale agents was basically stable at about 60000 tons, but the volume of direct sales increased greatly. The sales volume of direct sales channels in 2020 and 2021 were 3932 tons and 5736 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 48.3% and 45.9% respectively
Perhaps due to the revenue growth of direct sales channels, the gross profit margin of Maotai liquor increased from 93.99% to 94.03% in 2021.
With the launch of the “I Maotai” app, market analysis generally believes that direct sales channels, including e-commerce, have become an important starting point of Maotai’s sales in recent years and a bright spot of future performance.
Maotai’s channel reform is not just a new direct sales channel. Since 2019, Maotai has deliberately controlled or even reduced the number of dealers. From 2018 to 2020, a total of 632 Maotai liquor dealers have been reduced.
Although Maotai intends to control the number of dealers, the volume of traditional dealers is still one of the most important sales channels in Maotai. The revenue contributed by Maotai in 2021 accounted for 77.4%, supporting the overall performance. Therefore, it is unlikely that Maotai will continue to reduce dealers significantly.
According to the newly disclosed annual report, by the end of 2021, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) China had 2089 dealers, with 63 new and 20 fewer in that year, while the number of foreign dealers remained unchanged at 104.
it can be predicted that the channel reform of Maotai will still be the biggest focus in the future, and the continuous optimization of the sales system will also be one of the driving forces for the release of Maotai’s performance
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) ‘s research report pointed out that from the perspective of quota allocation, according to grassroots research and combined with historical experience, it is expected that in the follow-up plan, 20-30% of Feitian quota of dealers will be sold through e-commerce platform.
2021 revenue exceeded 100 billion
At present, the super steady performance growth remains Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) the biggest attraction.
According to the annual report of 2021, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) operating revenue exceeded 100 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 106.19 billion yuan, an increase of 11.88% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company exceeded 50 billion yuan, reaching 52.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.34%.
at the same time, Maotai mentioned in its annual report that the business plan target for 2022 is to increase the operating revenue by about 15% compared with 2021. With the super stable net profit margin, Maotai’s net profit will increase by the same margin in 2022
In addition to the performance improvement brought by direct sales channels, Maotai liquor sales will also increase to a certain extent in 2022. The sales volume of Maotai liquor in 2022 basically corresponds to the production of base liquor in 2018. According to the data, the production of base liquor in 2018 increased by 16% compared with 2017. If the sales volume of Maotai liquor in 2022 increases at a conversion rate of 85%, the revenue growth target of 15% can be achieved.
In the past 10 years, Moutai’s revenue and net profit have been rising, and the only Baijiu listed company that has not declined in the past 5 years, at the worst time, its performance is only slowing down because of the anti-corruption reasons.
In addition, what other enterprises can’t catch up with is that Maotai has always maintained a high gross profit margin of more than 90%, which decreased slightly in 2017, and there is still 89.7%; The net profit margin on sales has also been maintained at more than 45% for a long time.
another important indicator of performance quality: cash flow. In recent years, Maotai’s net cash flow from operating activities has far exceeded the net profit in the same period. Although Maotai’s cash flow in 2017 was lower than the net profit in the same period, it was still as high as 22.153 billion yuan
Stable cash flow enables Maotai to maintain stable cash dividends for a long time. In the 2021 annual report, Maotai announced the most “trench” dividend plan in history: it plans to distribute 216.75 yuan (including tax) of cash dividend for every 10 shares, with a total distribution of 27.228 billion yuan. Over the past 20 years since its listing, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) accumulated dividends have reached 121.35 billion yuan.
This may be the logic of Duan Yongping, the “Chinese Buffett”, choosing to add positions to Maotai again. In the early morning of March 29, Duan Yongping said on a social platform that he had recently bought some Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) . It said that from the perspective of 10 years, holding Maotai is a little better than holding cash in the bank.
