"Bite your teeth and hold on!" A public fund manager said recently that the current overall valuation of the A-share market is very attractive, but the "bottom grinding" stage often tests the patience of investors. Analysts said that multiple factors led to the sharp adjustment of A-Shares in the first quarter, with significant characteristics at the bottom of the market. Since April, A-Shares are expected to re-enter the upward channel.
multi empty "trilogy"
At the end of the first quarter of a shares, the Shanghai index fell 10.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 18.44% and the gem index fell 19.96%.
The operation of A-Shares in the first quarter can be divided into four stages. The first stage is from January to early February. New energy, military industry, CXO, semiconductor and other tracks released the pressure of overvaluation and transaction congestion, and investors expected the fed to raise interest rates in March, resulting in continuous market adjustment. During this period, there was a sharp decline in the prices of individual stocks with large market capitalization.
Since then, the market has rebounded from oversold. Lithium and wind power varieties have become the main force of the rebound, and the performance forecast of the annual report has also become a "catalyst". The second stage runs through almost the whole February, but the rise height of the stock index is limited. Some people believe that the cold issuance of public funds from January to February and the lack of incremental funds are the main constraints.
In the third stage, the "black swan" of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine hit, the global capital market fluctuated, and A-Shares underwent drastic adjustment. During this period, the continuous large net outflow of northward funds exacerbated the market pessimism. Data show that from March 2 to 15, the total net outflow of funds from the North was 67.802 billion yuan. At this stage, industrial capital took positive action and the tide of repurchase emerged Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) and other leading listed companies have thrown out repurchase plans.
On March 16, A-Shares rose sharply, and the market entered the fourth stage - shock "grinding the bottom". The "bottom of history" often shows the test of investors' confidence and patience.
confidence gradually restored
"By the end of 2018, various steady growth policies had not yet been put into force, but this time the finance and infrastructure had begun to 'overweight', and the real estate policy was more active. There was a high probability of a low point in the current round of market." Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) chief economist and chief strategic analyst Xun Yugen analysis.
"Before, the market performance was weak, mainly worried about external shocks and weak internal growth." Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) chief strategist Deng Lijun said that in terms of external factors, the situation in Russia and Ukraine eased, crude oil prices fell significantly, and April was a "window period" for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates; In terms of internal factors, the recent steady growth policies have been introduced, and some provincial capitals have relaxed the purchase restrictions on real estate.
Deng Lijun believes that the month on month increase in fund issuance shares in March and the large net inflow of northward funds in recent days all indicate that market confidence is recovering.
Liu Gesong, senior managing director of GF, said that the current market position has reflected most of the investment expectations, and it is in a very solid bottom area.
main line is expected to be clear
In April, the annual reports and quarterly reports of listed companies are intensively disclosed, and the performance comparison between sectors will verify the main line of the whole year.
At present, the market still pays high attention to the new energy track AI Xiongfeng, a Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) strategy analyst, said that at present, the fundamentals of heavy positions of institutions such as new energy have not changed significantly, stabilizing and recovering or high probability events. From the forecast of the annual report, relevant listed companies have generally achieved high performance growth. Although some investors are worried that the market has too high expectations for the performance growth of the new energy sector and believe that there are potential risks that the performance is lower than expected, at present, there is a high probability of smoothly passing the performance test.
In addition, he believes that TMT is the sector with large expectation difference, especially the sector in TMT that favors hard technology, such as communication, computer and semiconductor. First, the prosperity of these industries has remained stable and upward; Secondly, the valuation of relevant sectors is basically at the bottom of history.
Zhang Chi, a strategic analyst at Kaiyuan securities, said that there are periodic opportunities for A-Shares to rise. The duration may be affected by the tightening expectation of overseas currencies. It is expected to be as short as the end of April and as long as may. It is suggested to focus on three major allocation directions: first, new energy, semiconductor, military industry, high-end manufacturing industry, etc; The second is the subdivided industries with clear growth lines such as TMT and metauniverse; Finally, the securities companies and real estate sector.
