Today (April 1), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board. After the inertia fell at the beginning of the session, the stock index gradually fluctuated upward, and turned red and strong smoothly.
From the disk point of view, the pharmaceutical sector, which has soared recently, is facing a correction. The market of “drinking, eating meat and preparing grain” is on the rise, and the concepts of games and meta universe are also in turmoil. Baijiu sector, as of press time, Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) led, Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and other gains.
Huachuang Securities said that from the rhythm of previous bottoming of a shares, after the “policy bottom” is proved, the “market bottom” is not too far away. The Shanghai stock index is near Jinlong Machinery & Electronic Co.Ltd(300032) 00 points or a relatively solid bottom. In the future, there will be a high probability of upward shock after the bottom of a shares. We should pay attention to two signals: on the one hand, China’s stability maintenance policy continues to be issued, and the economic fundamentals confirm the bottom; On the other hand, the external disturbance factors such as the rhythm of the Fed’s interest rate increase and contraction and geographical relations are gradually becoming clear.
Specifically, we should pay attention to three main investment lines: first, the marginal relaxation of benefit policies, such as “banking and real estate”; Second, “agriculture and gold” benefiting from inflation expectations; Third, the theme of policy (support) promotion is related to “new energy (photovoltaic, energy storage, hydrogen energy), semiconductor, counting East and west”, etc.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[theme] Baijiu
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) mentioned that the marketing reform of Maotai has been continuously promoted recently. We expect that the company will increase its digital marketing and use its own e-commerce platform and other channels to improve the transparency and fairness of wine purchase. At the same time, this is also an important part of the “five in one marketing law” 1 proposed by the company Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Laojiao have gradually entered the stage of controlling goods and supporting prices, which reflects the company’s brand confidence, and the company continues to strengthen the accurate delivery of channels and reduce the number of problem dealers and terminals Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) successively raised the dealer payment price and terminal supply price of Guojiao, which are being implemented gradually all over the country. In addition, it is suggested to pay attention to companies that are less affected by the epidemic and are expected to make a good start in the first quarter, such as Gujing, kouzi, Fenjiu, etc.
Huachang Securities pointed out that Baijiu Q1 index outstanding indicators, channel performance is healthy, strong performance support, although the short-term focus of the market is Moutai’s price decline on the demand boom and channel confidence, but the leading line of value has been displayed, Moutai’s report acceleration, certainty scarcity, product line more abundant, and mutual trust with the capital market to enhance, is the first choice. Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) it is suggested to pay attention to the introduction and implementation of targeted market policies. In the long run, the 1000 yuan price band is still the largest brand, and Laojiao continues to recommend it. In the short term, it is recommended to focus on the verification of individual stocks in the quarterly report, focusing on Fenjiu, Huijiu Gujing, sujiu Yanghe and Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) . Expanding liquor enterprises are concerned about the willingness to maintain high elasticity in the decline of valuation.
Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) said that according to the 2021 Baijiu notice and the 1-2 month business situation in 2022, combined with the data of Liquor Enterprises above Designated Size, the two main trends of liquor industry development, such as head concentration and consumption upgrading, are still continuing. From the historical experience, the long-term development trend of the industry will not be broken by short-term external factors. Therefore, we think that the main line of Baijiu industry will remain unchanged in the future. We will mainly recommend five high-end Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) and so on.
[Theme 2] agriculture, animal husbandry, feeding and fishery
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) said that it reiterated that the current pig sector is still in an important layout window period: 1) the capacity continues to be decommissioned, which has decreased month on month for eight consecutive months since July last year, the capacity decline has maintained high intensity, the direction of decommissioning has maintained high stability, and is expected to accelerate under multiple factors such as supply and demand and cost; 2) The pig price is in the bottom area, and the downward space is very small, which is in an environment extremely conducive to the deregulation of production capacity; 3) The valuation is still at the bottom. In particular, the head enterprises are at the bottom corresponding to the valuation in 2022, which is sufficiently defensive and brings greater flexibility to the upward period of pig price. Therefore, at present, it is still in a very good configuration time point, and the pig sector continues to be recommended.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) pointed out that it is optimistic about the upward trend of grain price boom in 2022. On the one hand, it is good for the planting and seed sector. On the other hand, the rise of the cost of feed raw materials may accelerate the reversal of the pig price cycle, so it is optimistic about the investment opportunities of the pig sector. Specific targets: 1) planting sector: recommend Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) , and pay attention to Heilongjiang Agriculture Company Limited(600598) . 2) Relevant Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) section: recommend Cofco Sugar Holding Co.Ltd(600737) and pay attention to China Hainan Rubber Industry Group Co.Ltd(601118) . 3) Seed sector: recommended Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , etc. 4) Recommendations for pig breeding sector: Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Dongrui Food Group Co.Ltd(001201) , COFCO Jiakang, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , etc.
For the agricultural industry opportunities in 2022, China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities said it firmly recommended the pig cycle. The core view is that in the bottom stage of the pig cycle, the deep loss period is the best time to layout breeding stocks. From the perspective of expectation, there will be no worse expectation. The risk of breeding stocks has been released in large quantities, and the safety margin is very high. With the decline of the number of fertile sows and the decline of pig prices again, the production capacity continues to clear, which is good for the industry to meet the dawn. Based on our judgment of the second bottom of 22q2-3, 22q1 is expected to be the second best time point for the layout of breeding stocks.
[theme three] yuan universe
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) pointed out that metauniverse will reconstruct the production and valuation system of games. Metauniverse is expected to become the next generation of media beyond the Internet, subvert and create a new ecology. 1) The game will become the key content entrance of the metauniverse. Metauniverse will bring more immersive, richer and diversified needs and release more content needs; The natural interaction of game content and community atmosphere are expected to become the starting point of “meta universe” in the new era; From products to platforms, the attributes of the game itself are expected to change dramatically;
2) the yuan universe game industry may usher in a new round of dividends and reshape the game business model and valuation system.
The underlying technologies (blockchain, NFT, etc.), back-end infrastructure (cloud computing, Internet of things, digital twins, etc.) and front-end devices (VR, AR, Mr, etc.) that metauniverse relies on can be combined with multiple contents such as digital collections and virtual digital people, which provides more possibilities for the innovation of mobile games in creativity, commerce and sociality, and drives the continuous innovation of the game industry; The game industry ushers in not only the release of demand, but also the great changes in ecology, operation and capital market valuation system. Roblox’s popularity may only be the beginning.
Huaxin Securities believes that metauniverse needs a gradual development and improvement process from concept to application, and its process will also bring fluctuations at the enterprise end and valuation end. The meta universe industrial chain will not be a flash in the pan. Based on the participation of large users and the linkage between upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, it is expected to promote it to become a new engine of economic development. Science and technology promote the development of meta universe in the direction of goodness, take users as the center and empower Web3 0 value the social and commercial value of the Internet, and then give an overweight rating to the meta universe industry.
In addition, Anxin Securities said that in China, the strongest certainty of metauniverse in 2022 is the virtual digital man and NFT, which are located in the two sectors of “content and scene, collaborators” that China is good at. In the era of mobile Internet, content is divided into two parts from the perspective of realization – content works and realized content. Virtual digital people serve both content works and realized content; NFT is a mechanism for revaluation of digital assets.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) pointed out that after more than two months of correction at the beginning of the year, the A-share yuancosmos sector regained its safety margin, which has reflected the trend of stabilization and recovery. We believe that yuancosmos sector is a continuous theme throughout 2022, and we continue to suggest focusing on it. Recently, focus on Pico shipments, April yuan universe conference and other catalysis.
[theme 4] major finance
China Post Securities said that the intensive disclosure of the annual report helped the bank valuation repair market and continued to be optimistic about the performance of bank stocks. At present, the valuation of bank shares is generally lower than that of other industries, and it is also near the lowest valuation level in history. As the bank sector enters the intensive disclosure period of 2021 annual report, the valuation repair market of the bank sector is worth looking forward to. The steady growth policy in the second quarter will become the driving force for the performance of the banking industry in the next stage. Relevant stocks with high growth, high-quality assets and deep business moat are expected to receive more market attention.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) mentioned that considering the large team gap in the first quarter and the switching operation of new and serious diseases in the same period, the premium base is high, and the growth of new orders is still under pressure; However, in the second quarter, with the weakening of the influence of the team base and the downturn of the equity market, residents’ demand for life-long savings insurance products such as increased amount increased, and the growth rate of new orders may improve. The premium growth of property insurance continues to pick up in the post comprehensive era, and the cost and pricing advantages of leading companies will promote the continuous optimization of the pattern. On the asset side, considering the mitigation of real estate risks and the continuous efforts of the steady growth policy, the expectation of economic repair is enhanced, the long-term interest rate may fluctuate upward, and the asset quality is expected to improve. With the gradual clearing of negative factors in the annual report, the allocation value of the insurance sector with low valuation and market position ratio has increased significantly, so it is recommended to make a layout.
In addition, China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities said that the wealth management industry chain has broad development space under the new development stage. At present, China’s economy has shifted to the high-quality development stage, with China’s GDP exceeding 100 trillion yuan and per capita GDP exceeding US $1 trillion. Residents’ wealth has accumulated rapidly, the scale of investable assets has increased rapidly, and the transformation of asset allocation from physical assets to financial assets has accelerated. With the positioning of the policy of “housing, housing and non speculation”, the breaking of the rigid exchange of bank financial management, the acceleration of net worth transformation and the decline of interest rates, the increasing proportion of residents’ equity asset allocation is a general trend, which brings growth space to the wealth management market. At the same time, the expansion of wealth management institutions, the continuous enrichment of products and the creation of more financial products to meet the needs of family wealth management in the market also contribute to the development and growth of the wealth management market. Big wealth management business is a medium – and long-term high-quality track for securities companies, and the business space of selling financial products on a commission basis, participating in and holding public funds, asset management and other businesses in the industrial chain is expanded.
In addition, the institutional business has a broad growth space and has become an important driving force for securities companies. The ecological transformation of the capital market and the emergence of the institutionalization trend provide opportunities for the development of the institutional business of securities companies. The business needs of institutional brokerage, sales, custody outsourcing, trading, risk prevention and control related to institutional customers have increased. The continuous release of policy dividends provides a favorable environment for securities companies to carry out institutional trading services. At the same time, the change of market investors, the development and growth of institutional investors, the improvement of market volatility, the growth of customer hedging, risk hedging and diversification strategy construction demand promote the development of institutional trading services. Head securities companies have benefited deeply by virtue of business qualification, capital strength, customer resources and risk control ability.
