Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) : confirmation of performance improvement is expected to become a catalyst for the market of the banking sector
Combined with the 2021 annual reports of several listed banks, the profit growth rate of most banks is further improved compared with the third quarterly report, and the asset quality is stable and good.
Looking forward to the second quarter, we believe that the actions on the sector can be sufficient: 1) the marginal easing of real estate policy is conducive to the credit risk mitigation of banks, especially considering that the industry is expected to have controllable pressure on the generation of non-performing assets after the continuous liquidation of asset quality in the past 3-4 years, and the performance of asset quality is expected to remain stable; 2) The goal of China's steady growth is clear. In the face of the pressure of the current economic environment outside China, it can be predicted that more steady growth policies in 22 years are expected to continue to work, contribute to the improvement of economic expectations and provide effective support for the fundamental operation of banks; 3) At present, the sector is still at a historical low, and the pessimistic expectations of the market for the macro-economy and the quality of bank assets are fully reflected. During the performance disclosure period, we believe that the confirmation of performance improvement is expected to become the catalyst of the sector market, so we suggest to pay active attention to it.
In terms of individual stocks, it is suggested to pay attention to: 1) value targets with excellent historical profitability and leading asset quality represented by China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) ; 2) Undervalued targets represented by Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) ; 3) Urban rural commercial banks with strong regional economic advantages represented by Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601825) , Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) .
China Post Securities: the current valuation of bank shares is generally lower than that of other industries is near the lowest valuation level in history
The intensive disclosure of the annual report helped the bank valuation repair market and continued to be optimistic about the performance of bank stocks. At present, the valuation of bank shares is generally lower than that of other industries, and it is also near the lowest valuation level in history. As the bank sector enters the intensive disclosure period of 2021 annual report, the valuation repair market of the bank sector is worth looking forward to. The steady growth policy in the second quarter will become the driving force for the performance of the banking industry in the next stage. Relevant stocks with high growth, high-quality assets and deep business moat are expected to receive more market attention.
East Asia Qianhai Securities: securities companies have reached the configurable range in terms of growth and valuation both
In terms of securities, it has high growth and ownership α Wealth management securities companies such as CICC, gf and Dongfang led the increase. The asset quality and profitability of securities companies have been continuously improved, and the growth given by asset light business is still underestimated by the market. From the perspective of valuation, the valuation of Pb in the industry has reached the low point since February 2019. Securities companies have reached the configurable range in terms of growth and valuation.
In terms of insurance, the liability side: according to the February data released by various insurance companies, the liability side of the industry is still not improving. However, there are still positive factors in the industry: the improvement of nbvm in bancassurance channel and the high increase of premium, as well as the sales boom of increased lifetime life, which is expected to alleviate the pessimistic expectation of the industry. Asset side: according to the social finance data in February, there is still the expectation of interest rate and reserve requirement reduction in the follow-up. However, under the background of credit expansion, the possibility of significant decline of long-term interest rate is low.
In terms of investment suggestions, the securities companies participating in public funds or the related targets with strong asset management ability include Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , and China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) , with outstanding institutional business ability; Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , which is related to the synergy of "Bank + insurance" group.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : the allocation value of the insurance sector with low valuation and market position ratio has increased significantly
Looking forward to the follow-up, considering the large team gap in the first quarter and the switching operation of new and serious diseases in the same period, the premium base is high, and the growth of new orders is still under pressure; However, in the second quarter, with the weakening of the influence of the team base and the downturn of the equity market, residents' demand for life-long savings insurance products such as increased amount increased, and the growth rate of new orders may improve. The premium growth of property insurance continues to pick up in the post comprehensive era, and the cost and pricing advantages of leading companies will promote the continuous optimization of the pattern. On the asset side, considering the mitigation of real estate risks and the continuous efforts of the steady growth policy, the expectation of economic repair is enhanced, the long-term interest rate may fluctuate upward, and the asset quality is expected to improve. With the gradual clearing of negative factors in the annual report, the allocation value of the insurance sector with low valuation and market position ratio has increased significantly, so it is recommended to make a layout. Individual stocks focus on [ Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) ], [ China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) ] and [ China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) ].
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) : continue to recommend the property insurance sector with improved fundamentals it is suggested to pay attention to the leader of life insurance
Continue to recommend the property insurance sector with improved fundamentals, and it is recommended to pay attention to the leader of life insurance. In terms of property insurance, 2022 is expected to usher in a "simultaneous rise in volume and price", with a significant improvement in fundamentals. First, "premium growth promotes leverage". In February, the cumulative growth rate of property insurance premiums of listed insurance companies expanded again. In addition, it benefited from the stable growth of motor vehicle ownership, the improvement of commercial insurance coverage rate and the growth of insurance amount of the three parties. It is expected that the growth rate of auto insurance premiums in the industry will be about 10% in 2022, while the decline of benefit rates of leading insurance companies is expected to increase by about 12%. Therefore, it is expected to promote the growth of property insurance premiums by 15%, and the year-on-year growth of net assets will increase the premium leverage and investment leverage, It is expected to promote the improvement of roe.
Second, "the slowdown of auto insurance competition promotes the decline of cor". With the sharp rise of cor of small and medium-sized insurance enterprises caused by the comprehensive reform in one year, it is expected to force small and medium-sized insurance companies to reduce the cost investment, slow down the competition, which is conducive to the decline of the industry cost rate, the weakening of the expectation of major disasters is expected to reduce the compensation rate, and the overall COR is expected to decrease. "Simultaneous rise in volume and price" is expected to promote the year-on-year improvement of roe and net profit of leading companies. Considering the current low valuation of property insurance companies, it is expected to boost the valuation with the continuous recovery of fundamentals.
From the perspective of life insurance, the worst time on the liability side has passed. The life insurance premiums of listed insurance companies recovered as scheduled in February. The rebound of local epidemic has promoted the continuous release of the demand for preventive savings, and boosted the debt side of leading companies to exceed expectations. It is expected that the growth rate of life insurance premiums is expected to continue to improve. It is suggested to focus on individual stocks: China Property Insurance (H), China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) (A / h), AIA (H), The People'S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) (A / h), Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (A / h), China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) (A / h), Zhong'an online (h).
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) : favorable policies occur frequently! Optimistic about the long-term development of securities companies
For the brokerage industry, policies are frequent, and we are optimistic about the long-term development of the brokerage sector. ① A series of policies to promote the construction of securities companies and capital markets (insurance funds, new regulations on income swaps, comprehensive accounts and the full implementation of the registration system) have been introduced one after another, which is beneficial to ficc, wealth management and the industrial chain of large investment banks. ② The uncertainty of long-term profit center has increased: the wealth management business has continued to grow, and the channels, products and investment advisers have benefited deeply; The scale of derivatives maintained rapid growth, new products were launched one after another, the superposition system continued to be standardized, and ficc constituted the core increment; The construction of multi-level capital market has accelerated, and the science and innovation board and the Beijing stock exchange have brought new increment. At the same time, the reform of the registration system has also brought dividends to the stock business system. ③ There is a great contrast between the fundamentals and policies of securities companies and the valuation. The profits of securities companies continue to reach a new high. Relative to roe, they are close to the level of the previous bull market (20152016), but their valuation is still at the bottom 1 / 4 of the historical valuation. We are optimistic about the long-term allocation value of securities companies.
For the insurance industry, interest rates have stabilized and valuation repair is imminent. ① Property insurance, auto insurance and non car co frequency resonance, the competition pattern has stabilized, and the advantages of leading insurance enterprises have expanded. One year after the comprehensive reform of auto insurance, the year-on-year growth of premium income has been significantly improved. At the same time, the premium of non auto insurance has continued to increase; In the medium and long term, the scale effect will be further strengthened. Leading insurance companies are expected to further expand their profit space and strengthen competitive barriers by virtue of their advantages in rates, channels and brands. ② In the short term, due to the contradiction between supply and demand of the industry, the pressure on the liability side of life insurance is significant.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : marginal improvement on the liability side! Insurance industry has high safety margin and both offensive and defensive
The debt side margin is improved, the safety margin of the insurance industry is high, and both offensive and defensive are available. 1) The cbcirc held a special meeting to convey, study and implement the spirit of the meeting of the financial commission of the State Council. It is emphasized to continue to standardize the development of the third pillar endowment insurance and promote the improvement of health insurance services. We should give full play to the advantages of long-term investment of insurance funds and guide insurance institutions to allocate more funds to equity assets. Support insurance companies to increase capital market investment, especially stock investment of high-quality listed companies, through various channels such as direct investment, entrusted investment and public funds.
2) the pressure of life insurance has not been relieved, and the growth of auto insurance premium has returned to normal. The single month premium of listed life insurance companies in February was + 1.2% year-on-year, which is expected to be mainly affected by the slight decline in the base in the same period, but it is expected that the new single term payment of various insurance enterprises is still under pressure. The total monthly premium of property insurance companies in February was + 15.7% year-on-year. The three leading property insurance companies achieved positive growth, and the growth rate of PICC auto insurance continued to rise.
3) slightly improved fundamentals. In the first quarter of 2022, new life insurance orders may still face negative growth, while the number of agents will decrease significantly, and the liability side will continue to be under pressure; However, the decline is expected to narrow significantly as the base decreases after March.
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities: wealth management and institutional business are the medium and long-term high-quality track of securities companies
China's economy has turned to a high-quality development stage. China's GDP has exceeded 100 trillion yuan, and its per capita GDP has exceeded 1 trillion US dollars. Residents' wealth has accumulated rapidly, the scale of investable assets has increased rapidly, the transformation of asset allocation from physical assets to financial assets has accelerated, and the allocation of equity assets needs to be improved. Supervision guides institutional investors to enter the market, optimizes the investor structure, improves the scale and proportion of professional institutional investors, and shows the trend of institutionalization. Deepening the service of institutional investors is the focus of securities companies to build their core competitiveness. Under the environment of capital market ecological transformation, the advantageous securities companies in the fields of wealth management and institutional business will have core competitiveness. Wealth management and institutional business are the medium and long-term high-quality track of securities companies. Comprehensively considering the business environment of the securities industry, under the pessimistic, neutral and optimistic assumptions, we calculate that the year-on-year growth rate of net profit of the securities industry in 2022 is - 3.29% / 9.76% / 20.44% respectively. The current sector is 1.43xpb, below the 10% quantile since 2010, with low valuation and maintaining the "recommended" rating.
