U.S. stocks fell overnight. Today (April 1), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board, and then gradually fluctuated upward, and further rose and turned red. In the afternoon, the three major indexes remained high and fluctuated. The Shanghai index ushered in a new high since the oversold rebound, advancing towards 3300 points, and the rise of the Shenzhen composite index was more prominent.
As of the close of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets all day, the Shanghai index rose 0.94% to 328272 points; The Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.91% to 1222793 points; The gem index rose 0.28% to 266697
From the disk point of view, the rise and fall of industry and concept sectors are different, and the local profit-making effect is still in existence. In terms of industry, shipping ports, tourism hotels, games, airports, real estate, banking, brewing, securities, insurance and other industries led the rise; In terms of subject matter stocks, NFT concept, tax-free concept, virtual digital human, online tourism, cloud games, film and television concept, etc. rose higher.
In terms of capital, the central bank announced on April 1 that in order to maintain the reasonable and abundant liquidity of the banking system, the people’s Bank of China launched a 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation by means of interest rate bidding on April 1, 2022, with a bid winning interest rate of 2.1%. In view of the maturity of 100 billion yuan of reverse repurchase today, the people’s Bank of China has realized a net return of 90 billion yuan in the open market.
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message surface
1. According to Xinhua Finance and economics, Zhang Jianhua, director of the national energy administration, wrote in the people’s Daily: speed up the construction of a modern energy system. The article puts forward that the task of energy security is still arduous. After years of development, China has formed an energy supply system driven by coal, oil, natural gas and non fossil energy, effectively ensuring economic and social development and people’s energy demand. At the same time, the old and new risks of China’s energy security are intertwined, the short board of oil and gas resources exists for a long time, the tension between regional and periodic energy supply and demand occurs from time to time, and non-traditional security risks such as network security are becoming increasingly prominent. It is particularly important to ensure energy security.
2. According to the Shanghai Securities News, the reporter learned from the China Index Research Institute on April 1 that the average price of new houses in 100 cities across the country in March was 16189 yuan / m2, up 0.03% month on month, the increase being the same as that of the previous month. From the number of rising and falling cities, 37 cities rose month on month, 53 cities fell month on month, 10 cities were flat with the previous month, and the number of rising cities increased by 7 compared with the previous month. On a year-on-year basis, the average price of new houses in 100 cities across the country increased by 1.72% compared with the same period last year, and the increase narrowed by 0.17 percentage points compared with the previous month. The average price of second-hand houses in 100 cities across the country was 16027 yuan / m2, up 0.11% month on month, 0.03 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. From the number of rising and falling cities, 47 cities rose month on month, 52 cities fell month on month, one city was flat with the previous month, and the number of rising cities decreased by 7 compared with the previous month. On a year-on-year basis, the average price of second-hand housing in 100 cities across the country increased by 2.38% compared with the same period last year, and the increase narrowed by 0.34 percentage points compared with the previous month.
3. According to the website of the Ministry of Commerce, on March 31, Wang Shouwen, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Commerce and deputy representative of international trade negotiations, presided over a symposium on foreign-funded enterprises in the automobile industry chain in Beijing. Representatives of 17 foreign-funded automobile and parts manufacturing enterprises and relevant automobile industry associations attended the meeting.
Shanghai Branch credit policy guidelines, issued by the people’s Bank of Shanghai in 2024. The guidelines emphasize that all financial institutions should actively shoulder the social responsibility of financial services and effectively strengthen the guarantee of the capital needs of anti epidemic medical materials, residents’ living materials production and supply enterprises and relevant logistics and transportation enterprises. We should increase financial support for industries that are facing great difficulties due to the continuous impact of the epidemic, comprehensively use a variety of service methods such as seamless renewal of loans, repayment of loans with loans, credit loans and supply chain finance, and implement facilitation measures such as online processing and application free and immediate enjoyment, so as to effectively alleviate the financing difficulties of relevant market subjects. Financial institutions shall not blindly limit loans, withdraw loans, cut off loans and suppress loans, so as to ensure the stable operation of the industrial chain and supply chain.
institutional views
For the current market, Rongwei securities mentioned that A-Shares are still available and pay attention to cost performance in the short term. Compared with overseas liquidity contraction, high inflation and other adverse factors, China’s financial and economic environment is relatively stable. With the support of policies, the downstream demand can gradually recover. The emergence of the economic bottom will significantly boost the market. The main line of the industry is still to focus on the areas that benefit from the national long-term strategic support or the support of short-term stable growth policies.
Dongguan Securities pointed out that after the sharp correction in the first quarter of this year, the selling pressure in the short-term market has also been greatly released. With the sharp correction, the overall valuation of the market tends to be more reasonable, and the “market bottom” is expected to be built gradually. Therefore, for April, we believe that with the gradual stabilization of the peripheral market and the accelerated implementation of the stable growth policy after the two sessions, there is an overall pattern of stabilizing and repairing, and gradually build a “market bottom”. In particular, if the policy is strengthened, it does not rule out the early opening of the technical rebound. Pay attention to the change of energy and capital flow. In terms of industry, it is suggested to pay attention to finance, real estate, building materials, food and beverage, building decoration, steel, electrical equipment, chemical industry and other sectors.
YueKai Securities said that it is expected that under the hedging of foreign factors in April, the A-share shock repair market is expected to continue. The change of profit expectation will lead to the differentiation of the market. It is suggested that investors should pay more attention to individual stocks than index, and focus on two main lines around the certainty of performance and the layout of policy force end.
First, the performance window is approaching, and pay attention to the pre hi sector of the first quarterly report. April will usher in a performance intensive disclosure period, and the market will return to the verification period of performance. From the perspective of industry prosperity, the performance certainty of basic chemical industry, electronics, medical biology, national defense and military industry is relatively stronger. It is suggested that investors should pay attention to the performance of the first quarterly report in advance in combination with the matching degree of valuation.
Second, grasp the main line of policy. As the main policy line, steady growth will remain the main market in the long run. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to new and old infrastructure and investment opportunities in the consumer industry to expand domestic demand. In addition, the recent intensive release of policies in energy, medicine and other industries is expected to usher in rapid development opportunities in relevant sectors. It is suggested to pay attention to high-quality target investment opportunities in policy beneficiary sectors.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) securities believe that opportunities are in stocks with low-risk characteristics. 1) As risk appetite declines, investment ideas should be changed: from chasing risk to aversion to risk, investment opportunities are not in the sector with high-risk characteristics, but in the sector with low-risk characteristics. 2) As the risk appetite decreases, the investment style should be switched: instead of looking at the company through a telescope, we should look at the company through a microscope. The key to stock selection lies in the sectors with high certainty of earnings and relatively reasonable valuation. Value stocks are better than growth stocks, and dividend & high dividend strategy / undervalued value is dominant, but the range of low-risk characteristics and earnings certainty can be wider.
In terms of industry allocation, there are three main lines: steady growth, upstream inflation and consumption. Since the beginning of the year, the market valuation has fallen. The investment should focus on stocks with low-risk characteristics, pay attention to the intersection of undervalued value and EPS improvement, and be optimistic about steady growth, upstream inflation and consumption. Key recommended directions: 1) steady growth of the line, optimistic about the g-end or public investment direction: photovoltaic, wind power, power operation, power grid, construction, etc; 2) Upstream inflation line, optimistic: coal, chemical resources; 3) consumption line, optimistic about the reverse and stability of profits: pig, Baijiu, etc.
