Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) disclosed in the annual report, the total operating revenue in 2021 was 109464 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.71%; In 2021, the net profit was 52.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.34%; It is proposed to send 216.75 yuan in October
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Jiacang Maotai “China Buffett” again! Foreign capital sold more than 1 billion
“It’s better to hold Maotai now than to deposit cash in the bank.”
This is the logic of “Chinese Buffett” Duan Yongping’s opening Maotai. In the early morning of March 29, Duan Yongping said on a social platform that he had recently bought some Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) . It said that from the perspective of 10 years, holding Maotai is a little better than holding cash in the bank.
While Duan Yongping bought, BEIXIANG capital continued to sell Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) . As of March 28, the cumulative net sales of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) reached 5.92 million shares this month. Based on the average price of Maotai this month, the amount of Maotai sold by BEIXIANG capital reached 10.2 billion yuan.
Recently, there have been more and more news about Maotai. Among them, the news of the sharp drop in the price of all kinds of Maotai once triggered screen brushing. In addition, the performance forecast disclosed by Maotai shows that the revenue in the first quarter of 2022 is about 33.1 billion yuan, an increase of about 18% year-on-year; In the first quarter, the net profit attributable to the parent company was about 16.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 19%.
The new e-commerce platform “I Maotai”, which has just been launched in Maotai, is also one of the focus topics of the market. On March 29, the “I Maotai” app topped Apple’s list of free apps, with 430000 downloads a day, and related topics became a hot search on Weibo. Some institutions expect that the subsequent “I Maotai” will probably launch affordable Pufei, which may have a profound impact on the price system of Maotai and change the distribution pattern of Maotai’s circulation interests to a certain extent.
Duan Yongping jiacang Maotai
At the critical moment, “China Buffett” made another move.
In the early morning of March 29, Duan Yongping, a well-known investor known as “China Buffett”, said on the social platform that he had recently bought some Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) .
He further said that the reason for buying Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) has nothing to do with any news you see, or even the stock price, but there is just a little excess cash. I always think that from the perspective of 10 years, holding Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) is a little better than holding cash in the bank. “
Duan Yongping stressed that the reason why the purchase has nothing to do with the stock price is that in recent years, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) stock price has suffered a continuous decline. On March 28, Maotai stock price once fell to 1600 yuan. As of the latest closing, Maotai’s share price was 1667 yuan, a cumulative decline of 24.8% compared with the peak in December last year.
Although Duan Yongping stressed that this purchase is not a bottom reading action, as a representative of value investment, his investment style has always been “greed when others fear”, and investing in Tencent is one of the very profound cases.
Since this year, Tencent’s share price has suffered a continuous sharp decline, and Duan Yongping has been “buying more and more when falling”. The last bottom reading was on March 15. On that day, he said on the social platform that he would sell Berkshire Hathaway shares and buy Tencent. Wait!
On the same day, Tencent’s share price plunged by more than 10% and fell below the HK $300 mark. Previously, Duan Yongping publicly disclosed Tencent’s plan to increase its position: “every 10% of the share price falls, add a position”. Since March 15, Tencent’s share price has rebounded, with a cumulative increase of more than 13%. Duan Yongping also began to transfer his buying target to Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) .
According to Duan Yongping’s investment resume, he has paid attention to Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) for a long time. When buying Maotai as early as 2014, he said that at this stage, there is no difference between 130 yuan / share, 160 yuan / share or 200 yuan / share. In the long run, the market value of Maotai is only more than 100 billion. With Maotai’s quality culture and business model, the annual profit will reach 30 billion sooner or later.
In 2017, the share price of Maotai kept hitting a record high, and Duan Yongping was still firmly optimistic. He said that Maotai was still Maotai, and people would still say that the price 10 years ago was really not expensive.
It can be seen that Duan Yongping’s logic of buying Maotai this time is still based on the long-term optimistic business model of Maotai, which may have little to do with the recent stock price performance. The probability of this investment is also a long-term bet.
Under the market game and differences, some people buy against the trend, while others choose to sell. The latter was the one who firmly allocated Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) ‘s northbound funds.
Since March this year, the selling of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) by northbound capital has increased significantly. As of March 28, the cumulative net sales of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) by northbound capital this month reached 5.92 million shares, and the continuous number once hit a new low in nearly four years. Based on the average price of Maotai this month, the amount of selling of Maotai by northbound capital reached 10.2 billion yuan.
Among them, northbound funds sold Maotai on March 15, with an amount of more than 2.7 billion yuan, setting a record for net sales in a single day.
performance growth inflection point
Duan Yongping’s speech also mentioned that the reason for buying Maotai has nothing to do with any news. Recently, there has been a lot of news about Maotai, among which the news of the sharp decline in the price of all kinds of Maotai has triggered screen brushing.
According to the data of “today’s liquor price” and other platforms, on March 25 and 26, the prices of all kinds of Maotai liquor fell sharply across the board. In 22 years, the price of Maotai liquor rose from more than 3000 yuan to 2600 yuan. In less than half a year, the decline reached 200 yuan / bottle in the past week and 110 yuan / bottle in the last two days; The original box fell by 180 yuan / bottle in two days, and the price fell to 2750 yuan / bottle.
Affected by this, at the opening of this Monday, Maotai’s share price once fell by 5%, and the share price once fell to 1600 yuan. In fact, the market is too panic about this news, because the decline of Maotai terminal price will not affect the performance of Maotai. Because the factory price of 500ml Feitian Maotai liquor is 969 yuan, there is still a huge gap from the market price.
Perhaps to appease the market, on February 28, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) announced the financial data before disclosing the annual report. In 2021, the total operating revenue was 109.46 billion yuan and the total profit was 74.52 billion yuan; The net profit was 52.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.34%.
At the same time, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) expects to achieve a total operating revenue of about 33.1 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2022, an increase of about 18% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in the first quarter was about 16.6 billion yuan, an increase of about 19% year-on-year.
Maotai also stressed in the announcement that since this year, the product sales momentum has improved, the market has shown a strong sales trend, and has successfully realized the “stable opening” and “good opening”.
The performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022 alleviated the market’s concern about performance to a certain extent.
Some market analysts believe that at present, the whole liquor capital is at a low tide, and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) taking the initiative to disclose the business situation has the significance of stabilizing market sentiment and boosting capital confidence.
Compared with the performance growth in the past quarter, Maotai’s net profit growth of 19% in the first quarter of 2022 has reached a new high in recent three years. In contrast, in the first quarter of the previous two years, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) the growth rate of net profit attributable to parent company was 16.34% and 6.56% respectively.
In fact, the growth rate of net profit in the first quarter of 2022 hit the bottom and rebounded, which has a certain relationship with the intensive launch of new products at the end of last year and January this year. The peak sales season of the Spring Festival has driven the growth of sales in the first quarter to a certain extent.
one day download 430000, “I Maotai” fire
The new e-commerce platform “I Maotai”, which has just been launched in Maotai, is also one of the focus topics of the market.
On March 28, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) ( Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) . SH) was officially announced. After six months of preparation, Maotai digital marketing app – “I Maotai” will be officially launched and put into trial operation on March 31.
On the eve of the official launch, consumers can search “I Maotai” in major mobile application stores for downloading. The Chinese reporter of the securities firm found that on March 29, “I Maotai” app rushed to the first place in Apple’s free application list, with 430000 downloads in a single day.
In the trial operation stage, consumers can make an appointment at “I Maotai” to apply for the latest four products: 53 ° 500ml Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) wine (year of the tiger), 53 ° 500ml Maotai 1935, 53 ° 375ml 2 (year of the tiger), 53 ° 500ml Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) wine (treasures).
However, the most popular 500ml Feitian Maotai liquor can not be purchased on the “I Maotai” platform for the time being. Maotai’s approach is to integrate and access 12 third-party e-commerce platforms to provide consumers with rush purchase information for purchasing Feitian Maotai liquor.
Some analysts believe that various processes and experiences need to be updated and improved in the early stage of APP launch, and Feitian Maotai has too high attention. Once it is launched, the huge flow may put great pressure on app.
“I Maotai” is another new measure to promote the implementation of Maotai marketing system reform since Ding Xiongjun took office, which has increased the market’s confidence in Maotai’s increasing the reform of direct sales channels.
Some institutions predict that after “I Maotai” has accumulated operation experience, it will probably launch affordable Pufei, which may have a profound impact on the price system of Maotai liquor, enhance the online sales capacity of Maotai liquor, change the distribution pattern of circulation interests of Maotai liquor to a certain extent, and then improve the profit system of Maotai.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) ‘s research report pointed out that from the perspective of quota allocation, according to grassroots research and combined with historical experience, it is expected that in the follow-up plan, 20-30% of Feitian quota of dealers will be sold through e-commerce platform.
As we all know, the sales channels of Maotai are divided into dealers and direct sales. The ex factory price of 500ml Feitian Maotai liquor is 969 yuan, which is far from the market price. Therefore, increasing the reform of direct selling channels has become an important measure for Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) increasing profits. According to the data, in 2020, the revenue of direct sales channels reached 13.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 82.66%, accounting for 13.96% of the total revenue of main liquor, with a gross profit margin of 95.62%, while the gross profit margin of traditional wholesale agents was 90.8%. In the first three quarters of 2021, the revenue of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) direct sales channel was about 14.685 billion yuan, accounting for about 19.7% of the revenue, significantly higher than that in 2020. (source: brokerage China)
