Core view
Two week performance of the sector: in the past two weeks (202203.14202203.25), CSI 300 fell by 3.06%, gem index fell by 1.03%, and consumer service (CITIC) index fell by 7.68%. Compared with CSI 300, the relative income was – 4.61%, ranking 29th among CITIC’s 29 sub industries. Among the molecular sectors, the tourism and leisure sector fell by 8.71% in the past two weeks, the hotel and catering sector fell by 1.98% in the past two weeks, the education sector fell by 8.62% in the past two weeks, and the comprehensive service sector fell by 3.40% in the past two weeks.
Weekly tracking of individual stocks: 1) in terms of the rise and fall of individual stocks, the five stocks with the highest share price increase in the past two weeks are Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) / Xi’An Qujiang Cultural Tourism Co.Ltd(600706) / Galaxy Entertainment / Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) / Huatian Hotel Group Co.Ltd(000428) ; 2) In terms of capital flow, in the past two weeks, Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) / Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) showed capital inflow to the north, and Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) / China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) / Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) / China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) , Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) showed capital outflow to the north. In terms of the subject matter of Hong Kong stocks, Haidilao / Naixue’s tea / sipping sipping / jiumaojiu in the past two weeks have all shown capital inflows to the south.
Industry highlights: (1) tourism platform refers to a 285% surge in the search volume of incoming flights; (2) More than 500 billion yuan cultural and tourism projects have surged into “smart Hubei”, calling for “trillion yuan industry” and helping Hubei build a “world-famous tourism destination”; (3) Representatives and members of the two sessions supported the recovery of the catering industry: important announcements of accelerating the digital catering a / H-share social service listed companies: (1) Haidilao: the company issued the 2021 annual report, realizing an operating revenue of 41.112 billion yuan / + 43.7%, a loss of 4.163 billion yuan, a profit of 309 million yuan in the same period last year, a profit turned into a loss, and a basic income of -0.78 yuan / share. Business Briefing: in 2021, 421 new restaurants were opened, with a net opening of 145 stores. The overall average turnover rate was 3.0 times / day, and the turnover rate of the same store was 3.5 times / day. (2) Jiumaojiu: the company released its 2021 annual report, realizing an operating revenue of 4.18 billion yuan / + 54.0%, and the net profit attributable to the owners of the company was 340 million yuan / + 174.0%.
Investment proposal and investment object
In the past two weeks, the epidemic in many places across the country is still serious, and the number of new local positive cases remains high. We expect that the short term will put pressure on the peak tourism season after Qingming Festival. On the other hand, the governments of Shenzhen and other places have successively issued rescue and support policies for the service industry. We believe that when the epidemic stabilizes, the market’s expectations for the adjustment of epidemic prevention policies will still rise, and the response of relevant underlying stock prices may be ahead of the fundamental recovery.
Tax exemption: China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) ( China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , overweight) released the operating data from January to February 2022. From January to February, the company’s net profit margin attributable to the parent company was 18.3% higher than expected, which was the same as that from January to February of the same period last year, but higher than 15.7% of 21q1. It also improved significantly month on month, mainly due to: 1) the reduction of discount; 2) The improvement of sales structure brought by the recovery of passenger flow, the proportion of offline high-quality products increased, and the proportion of online products with low gross profit margin decreased significantly month on month and was lower than 21q1; 3) The income tax of Hainan Province is preferential, and the tax rate is reduced from 25% in the same period last year to 15%. The return of net interest rate from January to February was higher than expected, which proved that the fluctuation of profitability was mainly affected by the epidemic and had no worries for a long time; It also reflects the company’s determination and determination to ensure profits this year.
According to the Department of Commerce of Hainan Province, from March 1 to 23, the total sales volume of 10 duty-free shops on outlying islands in Hainan was 2.296 billion, with a daily average of 100 million, a year-on-year decrease, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic. The daily average passenger flow of Meilan Airport in the past 7 days / March is only 41% / 55% of that in the same period of 21 years. Therefore, the sales are in line with expectations. Although the passenger flow to the island has decreased significantly, China free has maintained a low discount during this period, which once again reflects the determination to ensure profits. We re emphasize the bottom allocation opportunities caused by the short-term epidemic, and suggest to actively grasp them.
Hotels and scenic spots: the impact of this round of epidemic on Residents’ travel is greater than previous rebounds. It is suggested to pay attention to the post correction allocation opportunities of Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) ( Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , buy), Huazhu group-s (01179, not rated), Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) ( Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , buy), and China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) ( China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) , buy).
Catering: it is recommended to pay attention to Helen (09869, not rated) and jiumaojiu (09922, not rated). According to channel research, jiumaojiu’s main brand “Taier” stores expanded from 233 at the end of 20 to 350 at the end of 21. In January, the same store recovered to 88% in the same period of 21 years (corresponding to 100% + level in 19 years), and in February, the same store recovered to 85% in the same period of 21 years; Hellens opened 35 and 19 new stores in January and February respectively. In January, the average daily revenue of the same store returned to the level of 80% in 21 years (corresponding to the level of 132% in the same period in 19 years), and in February, the average daily revenue of the same store returned to the level of 90% in 21 years (corresponding to the level of 126% in the same period in 19 years).
Risk tips
Systemic risks, sudden factors, individual stock mergers and acquisitions do not meet expectations, etc
