Event overview: on March 22, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration officially issued the “14th five year plan” for modern energy system planning.
Give priority to security and stability: enhance the stability and security of the energy supply chain. While promoting the energy revolution, we should also ensure the security of energy supply. China’s resource endowment of “rich coal, poor oil and little gas” determines that the process of low-carbon energy transformation is difficult to achieve overnight and needs overall planning. The plan proposes to “give full play to the supporting and regulatory role of coal and electricity, make an overall plan to ensure power supply, reduce pollution and carbon, and reasonably build advanced coal and electricity according to development needs”. At this stage, high parameter and large capacity coal power is still the best choice for clean and efficient utilization of coal, and it is also the ballast and stabilizer of energy supply.
The plan also proposes to “comprehensively strengthen the safety management of nuclear power, implement the strictest safety standards and the strictest supervision” and “actively and orderly promote the construction of coastal nuclear power projects on the premise of ensuring safety, and maintain a stable construction rhythm”. In the early treatment of Sanmen No. 2 and Taishan No. 1, absolute safety has always been put in the first place, Including the commissioning progress of the first four demonstration units of domestic third-generation nuclear power “Hualong 1” has also slowed down. Although the plan proposes that “the installed capacity of nuclear power operation will reach about 70 million KW by 2025”, so far, the combined installed capacity of 51 units in operation in China is 53.31 million KW, and 12 units under construction are planned to be put into operation by 2025 or before, with a total installed capacity of 12.94 million KW; If the six units planned to be put into operation in 2026 are advanced, it is not in line with the purpose of “absolute safety”. Therefore, we maintain the installation target of 66gw nuclear power in operation in 2025.
Give consideration to green and low-carbon: accelerate the transformation of green and low-carbon energy. The plan proposes to “comprehensively promote the large-scale development and high-quality development of wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation, give priority to local and nearby development and utilization”, “actively promote the construction of hydropower bases, promote the commencement of hydropower projects in the upper reaches of Jinsha River, the middle reaches of Yalong River and the upper reaches of the Yellow River, implement major projects such as hydropower development in the lower reaches of Yarlung Zangbo River”, “promote the synergy and complementarity of hydropower and wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation in Southwest China”. The huge storage capacity of large hydropower projects and the rapid start-up and stop capacity of units make them have good regulation performance, which is suitable for joint development and operation with wind and light, so as to build a clean energy delivery base. The plan also proposes to “steadily develop urban domestic waste incineration power generation, and orderly develop agricultural and forestry biomass power generation and biogas power generation”. Combined with the requirements of new urbanization and urban-rural integrated development, the waste power generation industry will make steady progress.
Investment suggestion: the written date of the plan is January 29, and the main contents basically continue the relevant policies in the early stage; From the perspective of policy context, the security and stability of energy supply is still the first priority, but the direction of green and low-carbon transformation has not changed. The hydropower sector recommends China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) , and carefully recommends Sdic Power Holdings Co.Ltd(600886) , Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc(600025) ; Recommended for thermal power sector Shenergy Company Limited(600642) ; ; Recommended China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) ; The environmental protection sector recommends Chongqing Sanfeng Environment Group Corp.Ltd(601827) .
Risk tip: declining demand; Price reduction; Rising costs; Reduction of precipitation; Policy promotion lags behind.
