Under a series of supply guarantee policies, China’s coal market price has bid farewell to the previous abnormally high, but compared with previous years, the coal price in the first quarter of 2022 remained high and volatile as a whole, and the performance of relevant listed companies was also frequently predicted.
On March 30, Wintime Energy Co.Ltd(600157) disclosed that the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022 showed that the net profit in the expected period was 300 million yuan ~ 350 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 44.09% ~ 68.1%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 276 million to RMB 326 million, with a year-on-year increase of 172.81% ~ 222.24%.
On the 30th, Anhui Hengyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(600971) ( Anhui Hengyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(600971) ), which is mainly engaged in coal mining, washing, processing and sales, also announced that according to the preliminary calculation of the company, the net profit in the first quarter of 2022 is expected to be about 382 million yuan, an increase of about 128 million yuan over the same period of the previous year (after retroactive adjustment), with a year-on-year increase of about 50.16%; It is expected to realize a net profit of about 386 million yuan, an increase of about 132 million yuan over the same period of last year (after retroactive adjustment), a year-on-year increase of about 52.2%.
For the first quarter performance forecast, the relevant listed companies are mostly attributed to the strong pattern of coal prices.
Wintime Energy Co.Ltd(600157) said that during the reporting period, the company’s coal sector performed well, and the sales price of coking coal increased year-on-year, which significantly increased the company’s profits Anhui Hengyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(600971) also said that the main reason for the profit growth was the rise in coal prices.
Previously, Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) ( Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) ) disclosed that the company’s coal production and sales continued to improve from January to February 2022. After preliminary accounting, the total operating revenue from January to February was about 7.22 billion yuan, an increase of about 11.4% year-on-year; The net profit was about 842 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 293.46%.
Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) ( Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) ) also announced that the company’s production and operation were stable from January to February 2022 and achieved good business results. According to the preliminary accounting of the company, the operating revenue during the period was about 5.7 billion yuan, an increase of about 43% over the same period last year; The total profit was about 882 million yuan, an increase of about 200% over the same period last year.
In 2021, under the background of global “energy shortage”, China’s coal price also fluctuated upward, reaching a historical extreme in the third quarter. However, under the combined fist of China’s policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing price, the coal price showed a short-term halving trend in the fourth quarter of 2021, but it is still relatively high as a whole.
In the first quarter of 2022, China’s coal price stabilized as a whole, but the strong pattern still existed. After the middle and late March, as the heating season came to an end, the daily consumption of power plants gradually fell, the coal market entered the traditional off-season, and the fundamentals of supply and demand also continued to improve.
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in the first two months of 2022, the national raw coal output was 690 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%.
For the later trend of the coal market, Joey, an analyst at China coal market network (cctd), believes that the pressure of terminal inventory replenishment will be relieved in early April. First, the demand for industrial power may continue to be limited in the short term. As the covid-19 pneumonia epidemic is widely distributed in this round, considering that it will still take some time to return to normal, it is expected that strict control measures in the short term will continue to limit China’s industrial power demand; Secondly, the demand for civil electricity will be weak; Thirdly, the substitution effect of hydropower is enhanced; Finally, the shift of Daqin line after spring maintenance slowed down the pace of terminal inventory replenishment.
In the near future, the coal supply of producing areas has remained relatively high. With the support of the strong supply guarantee policy, China’s coal output has continued to be higher than that of last year. According to the data monitored by China coal market network, since March this year, Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) the city’s average daily coal output has remained at about 2.64 million tons, a year-on-year increase of more than 30%. Although the coal storage of some power plants is still at a low level and there is a certain demand for replenishment of inventory, the pressure of replenishment of inventory at the terminal will be relieved in early April. In addition, the coal supply at the place of origin will remain relatively high. According to the information of China Railway group, the national railway will implement a new train diagram from 0:00 on April 8, and the transportation capacity of electric coal will be further improved. It is expected that in early April, Beigang inventory is expected to maintain a recovery trend, and the market coal price will continue to be under pressure.
