"With the relatively large adjustment of the market, many enterprises began to become very worthwhile. It is much better than what we have seen before."
After talking publicly about his views on the market, Xie Zhiyu, with a management scale of nearly 100 billion, spoke again. On March 30, Xie Zhiyu, the top flow fund manager of Xingzheng Global Fund, expressed his views and suggestions on the current market through live broadcast.
For the current market, Xie Zhiyu believes that many difficulties will be encountered this year, such as inflation, rising raw materials, epidemic situation, international environment, etc. these practical pressures will be clearly reflected in enterprise profits. Therefore, many opportunities in the market are hesitant and the performance is general.
"In a tepid market, investors need to find an anchor in their investment mentality. The probability is their own judgment of the enterprise. The valuation fluctuates greatly and is ultimately subject to the real situation of the enterprise. When you have a clearer understanding of the current and future development of the enterprise and have a reasonable valuation of it, this is your anchor."
Xie Zhiyu speaks again
Recently, with the more positive progress of the geographical conflict between Russia and Ukraine than expected, the market's concern about the risk of stagflation has been alleviated. However, compared with the peripheral markets, the rebound of A-Shares is still weak.
In this context, Xie Zhiyu, manager of Xingzheng Global Fund, once again expressed his views on the current market and his suggestions to fund holders through live broadcast.
For the current market, Xie Zhiyu believes that there will be many difficulties this year, such as inflation, the rise of raw materials, the epidemic, the international environment, etc., including the 5.5 target set for this year's economic growth at the government work report at the beginning of the year. We all have a lot to observe how to achieve it. These are very clear top-down perspectives. The economic situation is under pressure, and the market is also under pressure.
In Xie Zhiyu's view, now the market is indeed facing practical pressure, and these practical pressures will be clearly reflected in enterprise profits, so many opportunities in the market are hesitant and the performance is general.
"At this time, there may not be a particularly big risk. This year, we see that the huge decline in the early market is the superposition of many factors. Overseas conditions and concerns about uncertain regulatory policies are all important reasons." Xie Zhiyu said, but we saw that a week ago, the government made a very clear voice and sent a clear signal to use a more reasonable approach in the formulation of policies such as China concept shares and Internet enterprises. At that time, we discussed the bottom of the market. I think this problem did alleviate everyone's concerns about policies to a great extent, and the market responded quickly. Next, the market attention will return to what I said, that is, excluding policy risks, focus on profitability and economic conditions.
At the current bottom grinding stage, Xie Zhiyu believes that stocks are not afraid to fall much, but to fall much forever. There are many factors that affect the stock price fluctuation. In the long run, the stock price will eventually obey the fundamentals. It is not terrible in the short term. The valuation is reasonable and the fundamentals are strong. The stock price will go back. The fear is that the enterprise is not so good, and the valuation is much higher than expected.
Xie Zhiyu said that the anchor probability in the bear market is his own judgment of the enterprise. The valuation fluctuates greatly and is ultimately subject to the real situation of the enterprise. When you are more and more clearly aware of the current and future development of the enterprise and have a reasonable valuation of it, this is your anchor.
in the fourth quarter, the action of position adjustment and stock exchange was obvious
Based on the judgment of the current market, Xie Zhiyu made a significant adjustment to his position during the fourth quarter.
According to the reporter of the securities times, during the fourth quarter of 2021, Xingquan Heyi managed by Xie Zhiyu reduced its holdings of Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) and other stocks, Meihua Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600873) continued to increase its holdings, and Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) , Beijing Sifang Automation Co.Ltd(601126) obtained its new positions.
disclosure of Xingquan Heyi's position in the annual report of listed companies
The signs of xingquanherun, managed by Xie Zhiyu and managed by xingquanherun, which is managed by Xie Zhiyu, are even more obvious. During the fourth quarter, xingquanherun, which is managed by Xie Zhiyu, is more obvious. During the fourth quarter, xingquanherun, which is managed by Xie Zhiyu, has reduced the holdings of Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) \ \, Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) , Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Limited(300083) , Zeyu intelligence, etc. gained new positions.
disclosure of position of Xingquan Herun in annual report of listed company
As a whole, Xie Zhiyu is optimistic about the consumption cycle of new energy related stocks, while Xie Zhiyu is optimistic about the consumption cycle of new energy related stocks. Xie Zhiyu said that during the fourth quarter, the fund continued to adhere to the operation concept of selecting individual stocks from bottom to top, mainly focusing on the company's core competitiveness and balancing the company's short-term valuation and long-term value. The fund will continue to look for investment targets with good cost performance and pay attention to excellent companies in the direction of long-term development.
100 billion Zhang Kun has a new face in his "waist" position
Since last year, the core assets have been continuously adjusted, and the performance of top flow fund managers such as Zhang Kun and Xie Zhiyu is under great pressure. At the same time, they also began to reflect on their positions. During the fourth quarter, not only Xie Zhiyu made a significant adjustment, but also Zhang Kun made important adjustments to some of his heavy positions.
According to the annual report of e fund blue chip selected and released by Zhang Kun, compared with the mid-term report of 2021, ophthalmic treatment enterprise Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , blood product enterprise Beijing Tiantan Biological Products Corporation Limited(600161) , dental treatment enterprise Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) were all reduced by clearing, with the reduction range exceeding 90%, leaving only a small part of observation positions.
At the same time, bubble mart, Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) , China stock market news, etc. are favored by them, all of which are new positions.
Looking to the future, Zhang Kun said in his annual report that the value of an enterprise is the discount of all free cash flows in its life cycle, and always believes that the value of an enterprise is the discount of all free cash flows in its life cycle.
From an annual perspective, Zhang Kun believes that free cash flow is often affected by factors such as the rhythm of capital expenditure and the fluctuation of working capital. Therefore, investors often use net profit (and its growth rate) or income (and its growth rate), and even production capacity (and its growth rate) as approximate variables for valuation. This is reasonable to some extent, because the conversion process of free cash flow is "revenue - net profit - free cash flow".
"However, it cannot be ignored that since it is an approximate variable, it cannot be 100% representative. Each step of the above transformation may not be smooth." For example, Zhang Kun said, for example, the transformation from income to net profit may be affected by increased competition, showing a situation of increasing income without increasing profit; The conversion from net profit to free cash flow may be affected by factors such as excessive capital expenditure but insufficient final utilization and increasing occupation of working capital.
Therefore, Zhang Kun said, "when we are used to valuing enterprises with proxy variables such as income and net profit, we also need to consider the potential unsmooth possibility in the transformation from these proxy variables to the essential variable of free cash flow. I think this may be one of the reasons why Amazon calls on its investors to pay direct attention to its free cash flow."
Zhang Kun further pointed out that when studying the company, free cash flow has always been one of its most concerned financial indicators. Although there will be fluctuations between years, it is not difficult to distinguish whether a company can create sufficient free cash flow for shareholders when it is extended to the dimension of 5-10 years. Further, from the bottom level, the extent to which the products produced by an enterprise are desired by its customers, whether it has an excellent business model and whether it has a moat to maintain a good competition pattern in a long period of time are important determinants for the smooth transformation of income into net profit and then into free cash flow
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