Today (March 31), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board, with a prominent pattern of strong Shanghai and weak Shenzhen. The Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index showed a pulsed downward pattern. The Shanghai index once rose and turned red in the session, and then suffered pressure. It fell with the gem index, and the overall trend was relatively resistant to decline.
From the disk point of view, bank stocks support the market, medicine and real estate sectors support a shares, and infrastructure targets are also "stained". In addition, the "evil wind" of the concept of digital currency rose again in the afternoon. As of press time, Qitian Technology Group Co.Ltd(300061) "20cm" limit, Beijing Cuiwei Tower Co.Ltd(603123) , Sinodata Co.Ltd(002657) , Hengbao Co.Ltd(002104) , Chutian Dragon Co.Ltd(003040) , etc.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let's see what themes are available for reference.
[theme 1] pharmaceutical business
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) said that the valuation of the pharmaceutical sector has entered a reasonable range and the allocation value is prominent. Entering the disclosure period of the annual report and the first quarterly report, we suggest to focus on two main lines. The first is the high-profile and reasonable valuation sector, including CXO (focusing on CXO leaders and cdmo enterprises) and anti epidemic main line (upstream industrial chain of vaccines / testing / drugs / specific drugs, etc.); The second is the undervalued and expected reversal of performance, including traditional Chinese medicine, blood products, medical equipment (mainly new medical infrastructure), etc.
Based on the changes and invariance of pharmaceutical investment, the institution further believes that investment opportunities in the direction of innovation and internationalization should be actively grasped in the future. In terms of innovative drugs and vaccines, Xinda Biology (H) and Rongchang Biology (H) are recommended; In terms of CXO, Yao Mingsheng (H), Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) , Shanghai Haoyuan Chemexpress Co.Ltd(688131) , Pharmablock Sciences (Nanjing) Inc(300725) ; In the field of equipment and Life Sciences, recommend Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , minimally invasive medicine (H), Shinva Medical Instrument Co.Ltd(600587) , Amoy Diagnostics Co.Ltd(300685) ; In terms of innovative cutting-edge technologies, pay attention to unlisted enterprises such as Aibo biology; For domestic consumption, we recommend Jinxin reproduction (H), Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) , Shandong Wit Dyne Health Co.Ltd(000915) , Boya Bio-Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(300294) .
Guosheng securities mentioned that the main line of covid-19 should be strictly selected step by step, attach great importance to domestic covid-19 small molecule therapeutic drugs, grasp the faucet on the one hand and dig the poor expectation on the other hand. Vaccines should be given renewed attention. In fact, there are four aspects of medium and short-term medicine: covid-19 medicine, traditional Chinese medicine, first quarter report and cdmo after clearing chips From a one-year perspective, under the unique political and economic environment outside China this year, the relative comparative advantage of medicine has become more and more obvious after falling for nearly 9 months. It is suggested to gradually increase the attention and allocation of medicine.
Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) pointed out that both Pfizer and MSD have authorized their small molecule drug patents to MPP, and the relevant authorized generic pharmaceutical enterprises in China are expected to increase their volume. At the same time, they pay attention to the theme investment opportunities of covid-19 small molecule oral drug industry chain, such as some upstream intermediates and API CMO / cdmo enterprises. Traditional Chinese medicine: it is suggested to pay attention to the traditional Chinese medicine targets recommended for traditional Chinese medicine treatment in the new diagnosis and treatment guidelines.
[Topic 2] digital currency
Ping An Securities pointed out that the digital RMB adopts a two-tier operation mode. Under the premise of central bank centralized management, commercial banks and relevant institutions jointly promote the application pilot. Jingdong, meituan and other companies are leading the Internet industry in the application of digital RMB, mainly due to strong promotion willingness, rich consumption scenarios and large preferential incentives. By the end of 2021, more than 1 million users had used digital RMB in JD, with a cumulative consumption amount of more than 200 million yuan. In terms of consumption scenarios, jd.com and meituan have rich e-commerce and local life application scenarios. In terms of preferential incentives, in addition to the traditional discount coupons, JD became the first company to use digital RMB to pay salaries, and meituan launched digital RMB low-carbon cycling activities. Compared with Jingdong and the US group, WeChat and Alipay were relatively slow to participate in the trial. They did not use a large number of incentives to encourage consumers to use digital Renminbi.
The agency further analyzed and grasped the digital RMB investment opportunity from two aspects: hardware equipment and software system. At present, the digital RMB is in the initial stage of development, and opportunities and challenges are growing. Hardware manufacturers may benefit from the market opportunities brought by the digital RMB "Hard Wallet". A major feature of digital RMB is that it supports payment by hardware such as mobile NFC, bracelet and wearable devices. With the improvement of the acceptance of relevant "hard wallets", relevant digital RMB hardware developers will have the opportunity to obtain more relevant orders and promote the improvement of performance. Software manufacturers may benefit from the business growth brought by the upgrading of the financial system. With the popularity of digital RMB, relevant financial institutions need to upgrade the matching of relevant software systems, or will bring huge demand for system upgrading for relevant software manufacturers.
Shenyin Wanguo Securities believes that more combinations of digital currency, distributed ledger technology and RMB cross-border payment system are expected in the future. It is expected to significantly reduce the time and transaction cost of the current cross-border system. At present, the pilot DCEP is mainly used in Chinese retail scenarios and is not very suitable for cross-border clearing. In the future, the wholesale central bank digital currency supporting cross-border synchronous settlement (PVP) mechanism may be a better technical roadshow.
[Theme 3] real estate development
Capital Securities said that the high-level statement released positive signals and the policy window period came. At present, the downward trend of industry fundamentals continues. In the first half of March, the sales area of high-frequency data decreased by 50.1% year-on-year, the de urbanization rate of new opening decreased significantly to 34%, and the de urbanization cycle of key cities increased significantly. Some private real estate enterprises are facing the pressure of debt payment in the short term, and there is a serious lack of confidence at both ends of supply and demand. At present, it is urgent to control the real estate risk. The high-level meeting made it clear that it is important to deal with the industry risk. To open up the industry liquidity chain, we should take the lead in seeing the recovery of sales, and the restoration of house purchase confidence urgently needs policy support. The relaxation of the policy has been made clear after the high-level statement. We judge that the adjustment time window for the four limit policy in key cities is in the second half of March. The statement on the real estate tax eliminated a major negative factor that suppressed demand during the year.
Wanlian Securities pointed out that under the macro background of "stable growth", the fundamentals of the current real estate industry continue to bottom, and the marginal improvement policy continues. It is expected that there are still many favorable policies to be expected in the follow-up, and continue to be optimistic about the market performance of the real estate sector.
It is suggested to pay attention to (1) property management companies with good fundamental performance; (2) High quality real estate enterprises with financial stability and background of central enterprises / state-owned enterprises; (3) Real estate enterprises with high-quality holding properties or transformation enterprises, or effectively form a virtuous capital cycle of "development +".
Shenyin Wanguo Securities mentioned that real estate is still the pillar industry of China's national economy, and the contribution of the industry itself and the industrial chain to GDP accounts for nearly 30%. However, at present, under the multiple regulation and financial difficulties, the impact on the economy may gradually enter the low drag stage. In view of the recent frequent voices of the government emphasizing stabilizing the economy, steady growth and preventing and controlling financial risks, while stabilizing the economy urgently needs to stabilize the real estate, it is expected that the policy repair at both ends of supply and demand of the real estate industry is expected to accelerate, and will promote the optimization of the industry pattern and further enhance the concentration, and the high-quality real estate enterprises are expected to usher in both quantity and quality.
[Topic 4] bank
China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) mentioned that although the credit demand weakened in February and the social financing increment was less than expected, we believe that with the increasing weight of the steady growth policy, the financing demand is expected to gradually stabilize and recover in the future. At the meeting of the finance committee, it was proposed that "new loans should maintain a moderate growth", and there is no doubt about the sustainability of credit relief. This year's stable growth and wide credit environment are conducive to the stability of bank fundamentals. The performance of listed banks has maintained rapid growth and stable asset quality in the first two months. At present, the valuation of the sector is at a historical low, and the head bank has also deeply corrected to the low valuation in recent years. It continues to focus on Ping'an, Ningbo, Changshu and postal savings.
Shengang Securities pointed out that this round of bank market Suggestions focus on three main lines: first, the state-owned large banks that have performed well in previous market China Construction Bank Corporation(601939) ; Second, Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) and Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , which have earlier layout in the field of high-end manufacturing and green loans, and third, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) and Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , which have developed rapidly in large retail business.
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) said that from the 2021 annual reports of several listed banks, the profit growth rate of most banks was further improved compared with the third quarterly report, and the asset quality performance was stable and good. Looking forward to the second quarter, the actions on the sector can be sufficient: 1) the marginal easing of real estate policy is conducive to the credit risk mitigation of banks, especially considering that after the continuous liquidation of asset quality in the industry in the past 3-4 years, the pressure of non-performing generation is expected to be controllable, and the performance of asset quality is expected to remain stable; 2) China's goal of steady growth is clear. In the face of the pressure of the current economic environment outside China, it can be predicted that more steady growth policies are expected to continue in 2022, help improve economic expectations and provide effective support for the fundamental operation of banks; 3) At present, the static valuation level of the sector is only 0.59x, which is still at a historical low. The pessimistic expectations of the market for the macro-economy and the quality of bank assets are fully reflected. During the performance disclosure period, we believe that the confirmation of performance improvement is expected to become the catalyst of the sector market, so we suggest paying active attention to it.
