Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Ping An Securities: there is still room for improvement on the policy side, and the valuation of the real estate sector is expected to continue to repair
Considering that the pressure on the development of the industry remains unabated, there is still room for improvement on the policy side, and the valuation of the sector is expected to continue to repair. In the medium and long term, with the withdrawal or contraction of some real estate enterprises in the painful period of this round, the overall pattern of the industry is expected to be optimized, and the market share and profitability of brand real estate enterprises with financing and control advantages are expected to be improved.
In terms of real estate development sector, focus on leading real estate enterprises with strong short-term pressure resistance and prominent medium and long-term competitive advantages, such as Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , and moderately focus on elastic second-line targets, such as Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , etc.
At present, the valuation of the property management sector has reached an all-time low, and the downward pressure of the guidance in the middle of the quarter of the annual report has been gradually released. With the continuous deregulation of the policy and the improvement of the capital side of development enterprises, it is expected to bring high-quality property management valuation repair, focusing on such services as country garden service, poly property, Xincheng Yue service, Jinke service, Xingsheng business, etc.
Anxin Securities: the relaxation of real estate is directly beneficial to two types of real estate stocks
Subsequently, Nanning and Harbin followed up to relax the loan and sales restriction policy. Recently, the relaxation of real estate has less restrictions on policy tools, and the autonomy of local governments to relax real estate has increased significantly, which does not violate the main management requirements of “three stability” or “policy relaxation due to the city”. Under the background of the current downturn in the property market of low and middle-level cities, it is expected that the “policy based relaxation due to the city” is far from over, and it does not rule out the possibility that cities with large pressure on the property market try to moderately surpass the benchmark level cities for greater scale relaxation, but they may be more cautious in completely abolishing the core policies of “purchase and loan restriction”.
Directly benefit two types of real estate stocks. Since October 2021, the liquidity of real estate enterprises has gradually been under pressure, and some real estate enterprises, especially some private real estate enterprises, began to fall into liquidity difficulties. In early November, the central bank took the lead in making a voice, and then various ministries and commissions began to jointly state their positions. The “policy bottom” gradually appeared, but the liquidity pressure of private enterprises was still large. With the increasing pressure surface of real estate enterprises, the overall risk appetite of the market was low. Under the comprehensive effect of “the end of the policy has been realized + the pressure bearing surface has increased”, the large central enterprises represented by Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) are favored by the market, and the real estate stocks of private enterprises mainly rebound in the short term, with a weak overall performance. In this context, the market has doubts about whether the liquidity pressure will further spread to small and medium-sized central enterprises and state-owned enterprises. The overall performance of such real estate stocks is significantly weaker than that of large central enterprises with higher certainty and better fundamental support.
Shanghai Securities: brand real estate enterprises with financing and land acquisition advantages will have obvious advantages in future competition
Recently, many places have introduced new policies to stabilize market expectations. Xiamen has lowered the threshold, the local auction heat has rebounded, and the plots on the island have been traded at a premium. With the further deepening of urban policy reform, it is not ruled out that more cities will introduce relevant policies.
In the short term, the credit environment still needs to be improved. Credit bond investment should be more cautious, focusing on the head real estate enterprises with better cash flow or the state-owned central enterprises with higher qualification. Dollar bonds should wait until after the exchange peak in the first half of the year; In the medium and long term, brand real estate enterprises with the advantages of financing and land acquisition will have obvious advantages in the future competition. Related targets: (1) leading real estate enterprises with low financing cost and sustainable land acquisition in first and second tier cities, such as green city China, Longhu group, etc; (2) Real estate enterprises that are less affected by the “two concentration” land policy and can obtain land through diversified ways, such as Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Baolong real estate, etc; (3) The construction of indemnificatory rental housing promotes the gradual opening of the demand for agent construction, and deeply cultivates the green city management holding company built by the government for many years.
BOC International Securities: it is still a good allocation window period for the real estate sector at the turn of the first and second quarters. It is suggested to focus on four main lines
It is still a good configuration window period at the turn of the first and second quarters, and the expectation of policy improvement is still strengthened. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the opportunities of the real estate sector. We suggest paying attention to four main lines: 1) leading real estate enterprises with low credit risk, smooth financing channels and high security: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group and China Resources Land.
2) regional central state-owned enterprises or regional leading private enterprises with high financial report security and stable cash flow: China Construction Development International, Yuexiu real estate, Midea real estate, Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) .
3) under the influence of macro and industrial policies such as interest rate reduction, elastic real estate enterprises with large marginal income: Xuhui holding group, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) .
4) the real estate post cycle property sector with strong income determination and accelerated concentration, as well as the recent credit risk mitigation of related real estate enterprises and elastic reversal: Country Garden service, Xuhui Yongsheng life, poly property, Zhonghai property and xinchengyue service.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) : the fundamentals of the real estate industry have not been significantly improved, and there is still much room for policy side game
At present, the industry fundamentals have not been significantly improved, the sales side is still relatively depressed, and it will take time for the land market to recover its vitality. We believe that before the land market recovers completely, the pace of policy relaxation will not stop, and there is still much room for policy game. Similar policies issued by Zhengzhou and Harbin will follow in other regions, and real estate stocks are still Beijing Zhidemai Technology Co.Ltd(300785) entering. In the medium and short term, with the greater relaxation of policies in non restricted areas, the second tier leading real estate enterprises with more third and fourth tier cities will benefit more; In the medium and long term, with the withdrawal of the fast turnover mode from the historical stage and the repair of the long-term balance sheet of real estate enterprises, the leading real estate enterprises with stable operation and outstanding comprehensive strength will continue to benefit. April combination recommendation China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) .
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) : policy stability maintenance will be strengthened, and high credit real estate enterprises have more long-term advantages
Under the impact of shrinking demand and weakening expectation, both sides of supply and demand are facing great impact. The policy goal of “stabilizing land price, house price and expectation” will face great challenges. It is urgent to further strengthen the maintenance of market stability. The healthy and stable market is not only the need to prevent and resolve risks, but also the basis for the transformation of the industry to a new development model.
In the short term, with the gradual release of policies and the improvement of stability maintenance expectations, the industry policy atmosphere is relatively friendly during this period, and there will be a big game in the market to reduce the default risk of private enterprises. But in the long run, holding high credit real estate enterprises is a more stable strategy. At the sales end, high credit real estate enterprises can win the trust of buyers; On the supply side, high credit real estate enterprises continue to obtain financing support from financial institutions, and still have the ability to obtain land in the open market and acquire projects through mergers and acquisitions in the current market environment. Market reputation and business strength have laid the foundation for future development.
We believe that the advantages of financing will promote high credit real estate enterprises to gain advantages in the land and M & a market. The continuous land acquisition and promotion ability and high-quality credit endorsement are also expected to seize the opportunity when the demand recovers and further improve the market share. Recommend Vanke A, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) . The support from the financing side, after meeting the steady central enterprises and real estate enterprises in the head, will gradually overflow to the stable private enterprises, and the market will gradually restore confidence in the stable private enterprises. It is suggested to continue to track the leaders of the stable private real estate enterprises, such as Longhu group and country garden.
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) : driven by the expectation of policy easing, it is suggested to pay attention to the leaders of first-line real estate enterprises and some high rated flexible targets
Driven by the expectation of loose policy, we suggest the balanced allocation of front-line leaders and some high rated elastic targets, favor the front-line leaders with stable performance, and recommend Poly Real Estate and China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) ; Second tier leaders with flexible performance are recommended Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Longhu group and Xuhui holding group. At the same time, we are optimistic about the property management and business management industry with rapid growth and less credit damage, and recommend country garden service, poly property, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) , rongchuang service and Xingsheng business.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) : the future beta of the real estate industry depends on the adjustment of industry structure, the pace of capacity clearing and the strength of policy support
Reasonable relaxation of registered residence restrictions and multi-level housing security to help new citizens integrate into the city are the first prerequisite for releasing new citizens’ needs and making up for their differences in ideal demand and real purchasing power. We believe that the housing arrangement of new citizens is a series of institutional frameworks from bottom-up, transition, secure housing to improvement. The traditional commercial housing will be opened according to its lagging improvement demand.
At the current stage, relaxing the application conditions for public rental housing and continuing to increase the supply of indemnificatory rental housing and public rental housing will be an important starting point to meet the housing needs of new citizens; It is the most feasible way to reduce the difficulty of new citizens’ access to financial services or make up for the difference between their ideal needs and real purchasing power in the short term.
In terms of investment suggestions, the future industry beta depends on the adjustment of industry structure, the pace of capacity clearing and the strength of policy support; Alpha focuses on the repair of the balance sheet and profit margin of key real estate enterprises by M & A, the accuracy of countercyclical plus leverage, and the long-term excavation of the value of housing scenarios. Continuous recommendation: 1) high quality leaders: Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) ; 2) High quality growth: Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Xuhui holding group; 3) Quality property management: Country Garden service, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , poly property, Xuhui Yongsheng service.
