As of the last day of March, more than 20 "fruit chain" enterprises have announced their performance in 2021. Looking at the performance of these enterprises, it can be said that "a few are happy and a few are worried": BOE ( Boe Technology Group Co.Ltd(000725) . SZ) with the strong profits of the panel industry surged four times, Goertek Inc(002241) ( Goertek Inc(002241) . SZ) continued to expand the advantages of VR / AR in emerging industries, but many enterprises turned from profit to loss in 2021.
The word "fruit chain" was once the "gold lettered signboard" of these enterprises. While the performance has improved by leaps and bounds, it has also driven the performance of most enterprises in the secondary market. In 2021, the "fruit chain" was no longer popular, and the shares of Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) ( Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) . SZ), Lens Technology Co.Ltd(300433) ( Lens Technology Co.Ltd(300433) . SZ) and other giants plunged by more than 30%. Many industry insiders interviewed believe that the smartphone market has entered the "stock" era, superimposed with the impact of uncertain factors such as the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, consumer electronics may continue to decline this year. In this case, it is worth thinking about how industrial chain enterprises, including "fruit chain", find new performance support points.
"fruit chain" performance comes out one after another: success is apple, failure is apple
"I have also cooperated with" fruit chain "enterprises in technology research and development. I know that" fruit chain "enterprises rely heavily on Apple's industrial chain orders. Once Apple's output declines, such as" cutting orders "this year, it is bound to lead to a serious decline in the performance of" fruit chain "enterprises. Zhou Di, a national science and technology expert from the Ministry of science and technology of the whale platform, told the associated press of finance.
On March 29, the market heard that Apple would cut orders for iPhone Se and airpods. On that day, the shares of Goertek Inc(002241) , Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) , Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) and other leading companies fell by more than 5%. Dependence on key customers has been a long-standing pain point for "fruit chain" enterprises. The Ofilm Group Co.Ltd(002456) ( Ofilm Group Co.Ltd(002456) . SZ) incident in early 2021 filled investors' panic about dependence on key customers and led the share prices of many "fruit chain" enterprises to plummet.
According to the latest disclosed annual report, performance express and performance forecast, most enterprises that rely on apple and mobile phone business are also under pressure. The first is Ofilm Group Co.Ltd(002456) , who was "deleted as a friend" by apple. According to its performance forecast, the company's net loss in 2021 is expected to be as high as 1.9 billion-2.7 billion yuan, mainly due to the impact of the termination of procurement relations by specific overseas customers, the significant changes in the international trade environment, the company's H customer smartphone business is subject to restrictions such as chip supply interruption, resulting in a significant year-on-year decline in the shipment of many products of the company.
The situation of another giant Lens Technology Co.Ltd(300433) is also unsatisfactory, and the net profit decreased by 57% year-on-year. The company said: "the comprehensive factors such as the rise of human cost, the increase of R & D projects, the operation of new parks, supply chain fluctuation, epidemic situation and power restriction have had a certain impact on the company's operating performance." According to Lens Technology Co.Ltd(300433) 2020 annual report, the top five customers account for 79.29% of its total sales, and the small and medium-sized protective glass mainly used for mobile phones and other consumer electronic products accounts for 66.27% of its operating revenue.
In addition, Shenzhen Everwin Precision Technology Co.Ltd(300115) ( Shenzhen Everwin Precision Technology Co.Ltd(300115) . SZ), Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) and other "fruit chain" giants that once had unlimited A-share scenery did not achieve brilliant results in 2021.
"The business performance of the electronic manufacturing industry in 2021 was lower than expected, which was indeed related to the 'lack of core' of customers. Since the beginning of the year, due to the shortage of customers' chips, the delay or cancellation of orders, the whole industrial order has been in a relatively chaotic state, and many electronic manufacturing foundries have also stopped production and insufficient capacity utilization." Bu Rixin, an expert on whale platform and a partner of chuangdao consulting, once told the financial associated press.
However, in the case of the decline of the electronic manufacturing industry, some enterprises such as Boe Technology Group Co.Ltd(000725) , Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) ( Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) . SH), Goertek Inc(002241) , Han'S Laser Technology Industry Group Co.Ltd(002008) ( Han'S Laser Technology Industry Group Co.Ltd(002008) . SZ) maintained high performance gains.
Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) said that its performance growth was due to "the forward-looking strategic layout, continuous R & D and innovation, and the rapid response ability to respond to changes in market supply and demand". The company said on the investor interaction platform on March 31 that the company's NOR flash consumer electronics such as TWS headphones are mainly medium and high-end brand customers, and the current demand is still strong. At present, the company's NOR flash product supply is still tight, especially the vehicle regulation products.
Goertek Inc(002241) last year's revenue and net profit reached a new high. According to the annual report, in 2021, the revenue of the company's intelligent hardware business dominated by VR / AR equipment exceeded the revenue of intelligent acoustic machine business, becoming the largest business segment of the company, with revenue accounting for more than 40%.
Zhou Di told the financial associated press that "Guolian enterprises are bound to broaden their business channels and develop new fields. At present, many Guolian enterprises are engaged in new energy, and their advantage is the foundation of electronic industry and automation." Throughout the "fruit chain" financial report, whether the company has relevant production lines such as smart wear and new energy vehicles that can ship in large quantities has become the key to whether the company can win in adversityP align = "center" (the financial Associated Press reporter did not fully count the performance of fruit chain enterprises in 2021)
supply chain is full of uncertainty, and consumer electronics is afraid to "turn over"
In 2021, "lack of core" cast a shadow on the whole electronic manufacturing industry. However, after a quarter of this year, there are still many uncertainties in the global supply chain. "The structural imbalance of consumer electronics supply chain will be alleviated in the short term, but it needs to be considered in combination with the evolution of the situation in Russia and Ukraine in the long term." Hu Danni, an analyst at the cheetah Research Institute, told reporters.
Hu Danni said that the current tense situation in Russia and Ukraine may affect the supply of important raw materials for a long time. As an important exporter of gases and precious metals in the upstream of the global semiconductor process, Russia and Ukraine account for 70%, 40% and 30% of the global supply of neon, nitrogen and xenon respectively, while the global supply of palladium also accounts for 42%. These gases and precious metals play an important role in the consumer electronics industry. Therefore, once the influence area and duration of the Russian Ukrainian war expand, it will lead to the further deterioration of the supply shortage of key raw materials, and will also affect the overall semiconductor production capacity expansion progress, which will lead to the extension of the tight time of chip supply, the industry will still maintain the trend of shortage and price rise, and the supply chain of consumer electronics industry will continue to be in a state of suspension, or even the crisis of chain interruption. Most manufacturers will turn to suppliers in other regions, accelerate the aggregation of local procurement and nearby supply, and promote the decoupling trend of "anti globalization".
Under the influence of multiple factors, this year's consumer electronics market may be difficult to "turn over". "The overall situation of consumer electronics this year is not optimistic. The impact of covid-19 epidemic continues. The impact of the Russian Ukrainian war on consumer confidence in Europe and even the world will be gradually reflected. At the same time, the impact of the war on the chip supply chain will also have some negative effects on the market.
The mobile phone market is the world's largest consumer electronics market, which has been greatly affected. Cinno research expects that the mobile phone market will not improve this year compared with last year. " Zhou Hua, chief analyst of cinno research, told the financial associated press.
According to cinno research, in February this year, the sales volume of smart phones in China was about 23.48 million, down 20.5% year-on-year, 24.0% month on month, and both contracted year on month. According to the forecast of Jibang consulting, it is estimated that the output of mobile phones will be reduced from 1.38 billion to 1.366 billion in 2022, and the annual growth rate will decline to 2.5%.
However, under the above circumstances, the "fruit chain" has become the certainty in the uncertainty. "Inflation and the epidemic have repeatedly affected consumer demand, and the sales volume in the terminal market is poor. This year's mobile phone market is weak or flat compared with last year. With a solid stock user base and new product shipments, apple is expected to maintain prosperity and increase market share." Wang Yirong, an analyst at the cheetah Research Institute, told reporters.
According to cinno research, apple ranked third in the Chinese mobile phone market in February. Although it decreased by 24.8% month on month, it decreased by only 4.0% year-on-year. The popularity of iPhone 13 series remains unchanged, and the three models firmly occupy the top three of the monthly sales list of single products.
consumer electronics downward "fruit chain" looking for new growth momentum
The downward trend of consumer electronics and seeking new growth momentum are the business priorities of major "fruit chain" giants.
"The future increment of fruit chain enterprises is in two aspects: meta universe and automatic driving," Zhou Hua told reporters. In the past two years, "fruit chain" enterprises have almost collectively begun to attack in the two directions of smart wear and new energy vehicles.
Goertek Inc(002241) is undoubtedly the "winner" of the multi-point layout of the giant. According to public information, Goertek Inc(002241) is the exclusive OEM of oculus quest2, Sony PSVR and Pico VR under meta, accounting for more than 80% of the global medium and high-end VR shipments. However, it is worth noting that Goertek Inc(002241) is also one of the suppliers of Apple's airpods.
In addition to smart wear, the most sought after new business is undoubtedly new energy vehicles. In February this year, A-share giant Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) announced that it had jointly signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Chery Automobile and purchased the relevant shares of Chery held by Qingdao Wudaokou with RMB 10.054 billion.
Recently, Zheng Hongmeng, CEO of Foxconn Industrial Internet Co.Ltd(601138) ( Han'S Laser Technology Industry Group Co.Ltd(002008) . SZ), also said at the performance meeting that the company's intelligent cockpit, automobile motor, high-voltage connector and other products are under construction, with the goal of mass production in 2023.
It is worth noting that even if it is certified by apple, it is not easy to enter the automotive industry chain. Hu Danni told reporters, The long time of "vehicle regulation level certification", the automobile production mode and standard requirements are different from those of the consumer electronics industry, and the entry conditions of the main engine factory are all major barriers for the "fruit chain" to switch to car manufacturing. Many car enterprises will consider whether the company has the experience of carrying cars in mass production when doing qualification audit, which is very important for the "fruit chain" "For cross-border companies, it is basically an insurmountable gap. Moreover, cars are closely related to personal safety, and the tiny parts on the car need to undergo tens of thousands of hours of safety testing. Therefore," fruit chain "enterprises need to invest a lot of R & D costs and time costs in turning to automobile manufacturing."
