The market fell for the fifth week in a row this week, and the performance of the real estate sector ranked third: the market fell for the fifth week in a row this week, down 2.14%. Among the 31 industries, coal, agriculture and real estate rose higher. The recent performance of the real estate sector is bright, and the excess return of the sector has been obvious since the beginning of the year. In terms of sector valuation, the PE and Pb valuations of the sector rebounded to 13.25x and 0.99x this weekend. The PE valuation is equivalent to the level in July 20, while the Pb valuation is still low and volatile; Compared with all A-share PE and Pb valuations, the discount ranges are 23% and 40% respectively. If excluding bank shares, the discount is 46% and 56% respectively. Recently, the relative valuation of the sector has rebounded rapidly. Compared with the market valuation after excluding bank shares, the relative valuation of PE has rebounded to the level at the end of 18, while the relative valuation of Pb is the same as that in 21 years. In terms of individual stocks, the top five gainers in the sector this week were Tianjin Tianbao Infrastructure Co.Ltd(000965) , Citychamp Dartong Co.Ltd(600067) , Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) , Cinda Real Estate Co.Ltd(600657) and Cccg Real Estate Corporation Limited(000736) , Tianjin Tianbao Infrastructure Co.Ltd(000965) and Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) successively on the list, and Citychamp Dartong Co.Ltd(600067) benefited from the concept of new energy; The top five declines were Black Peony (Group) Co.Ltd(600510) , China real estate, etc., which were basically the subject of large increases in the concepts of benefiting from East West calculation, semiconductor and new energy in the early stage. The performance of major companies continued to differentiate this week. In addition to Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) , China Fortune Land Development Co.Ltd(600340) , Shenzhen Worldunion Group Incorporated(002285) , CNOOC property, etc. also increased, while Baolong system continued to adjust significantly, and rongchuang system also decreased.
Many real estate enterprises delayed the release of annual reports, the cancellation of sales restrictions in Harbin and the adjustment of housing loan policies in many places: 1) many real estate enterprises delayed the release of annual reports: Evergrande, rongchuang and Shimao delayed the release of annual reports due to epidemic and other reasons; 2) Harbin cancels the restriction on sales and adjusts the housing loan policy in many places: the three-year sales policy is cancelled in 6 districts of the main urban area of Harbin; According to the mainstream mortgage interest rate data of key cities released by the shell Research Institute, the mortgage interest rate in many places decreased by the largest single month in recent three years.
The turnover of new houses in key cities decreased year-on-year for the fifth week, and maintained a large decline: in terms of turnover, the turnover of new houses in key cities increased month on month this week, but decreased year-on-year for the fifth week, and maintained a large decline, but the absolute volume rebounded to above the weekly average level. Cumulatively, it has decreased by 37.2% since the beginning of the year, and the cumulative decline has expanded for five consecutive weeks. This week, the trading volume of the first, second and third tier continued to decline significantly year-on-year, but the absolute volume except the third tier rebounded above the weekly average. Since the beginning of the year, the cumulative year-on-year decline of the first, second and third tier has been 32.6% / 35.1% / 41.5% respectively, and the cumulative decline of the first tier has narrowed slightly. In terms of supply, the new supply of key 9 cities continued to decline sharply this week on a month on month basis, with a cumulative decline of 18.7% since the beginning of the year, expanding rapidly compared with last weekend. As of the end of this week, the narrow decontamination cycle was 11.80 months, basically the same as last weekend. This week, the new supply of key tier 1, tier 2 and Tier 3 continued to decline year-on-year, and the cumulative year-on-year supply has been 4.0% / – 30.6% / – 50.0% respectively since the beginning of the year. The cumulative performance of this week has fallen. As of the end of this week, the first, second and third tier de urbanization cycle is 8.58/8.71/17.08 months, and only the first tier cities have dropped.
Maintain the rating of “stronger than the big market”: the new housing market in key cities has remained depressed recently. We believe that in the short term, combined with the downward pressure of the market, the repeated epidemic situation and the signals released by the policy, the policy tone of stability and looseness will not change. Maintaining the stable development of the real estate market still needs the strong support of the policy. We maintain the rating that the sector is “stronger than the big market”, and the recommended targets are: 1) high-quality and stable state-owned enterprises, central enterprises, poly, Vanke, China Shipping (not covered), zhaosnake (not covered), China Resources (not covered), etc., and 2) relatively exciting core views
Flexible targets of the company: Xuhui (uncovered), Biguiyuan (uncovered), etc. 3) Biguiyuan service, Xuhui Yongsheng service, China Resources Vientiane life, etc. of property related companies.
Risk tips: the epidemic development exceeded expectations, the regulation and credit policies exceeded expectations, the introduction of real estate tax exceeded expectations, and the sales recovery was less than expected.
