The miracle day of real estate stocks was staged again, leading the rise of a and H shares.
At the end of March 30, the closing of the closing on March 30, the closing of the closing on March 30, the real estate (Shenwan) rose 5.86% at 5.86%, and only three of the 126 constituent stocks fell, including Bright Real Estate Group Co.Limited(600708) Risesun Real Estate Development Co.Ltd(002146) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) increased by more than 5%.
Among them, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) intraday touched the year high of 18 yuan / share, closing at 17.72 yuan, up 5.48% Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) in the past eight trading days, the total market value rose to 15.9 billion yuan, surpassing Shimao Group.
In terms of Hong Kong stocks, Hang Seng real estate construction industry led the rise of various industries with an increase of 3.75%. Among them, Greenland Hong Kong rose by more than 25%, Shimao Group and times China rose by more than 19%, 22 constituent stocks including Aoyuan, Rongxin, Longguang and Yuzhou rose by more than 10%, and rongchuang China's intraday maximum rose by more than 26%.
The other side of the real estate sector is the dystocia of the annual report. Incomplete statistics show that as of March 30, 29 enterprises, including property companies, have announced that the release of audited results will be postponed, of which about 10 may be suspended from April 1.
However, "from historical experience, real estate stocks do not fluctuate with the changes of fundamental prices, but rise and fall with the expected rise and fall of policy tightness." Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) analysis points out that now it seems that policy means are enough to promote the rebound of fundamentals, and the willingness of policy intervention under credit risk has reached the highest point.
Many places have also successively spread the news that the regulation of the property market has been relaxed. In March 29th, the news of Fuzhou's relaxation of the restriction policy was circulated in the market. It was said that the purchase of the foreign registered residence in the main urban area of the city of Fuzhou did not require the provision of social security or tax payment certificate or settlement. At the same time, Shenzhen has implemented the reference price of second-hand housing for one year, and recently there has been the news that "the reference price will be increased by 3% - 5%".
Some people in the real estate industry said that there were no many restrictions on the settlement of Fuzhou, and the adjustment of the purchase restriction policy itself was not much relaxed, but "it's better to have than not." Some real estate investors said that although it is estimated that the data in March is still sluggish, "what is speculation is expectation."
"The capital market is a response to expectations," some insiders of real estate enterprises told reporters. This is not only the expectation of house prices, but the expectation of the whole. From the end of last year to the beginning of this year, the market generally believes that the real estate policy has bottomed out, and the expression of suppressing real estate has not been mentioned during the two sessions.
In fact, before the deregulation policies of Fuzhou and Shenzhen, the sales restriction policy of Qingdao Jimo district had been relaxed, while Harbin and Zhengzhou officially issued documents to relax the relevant regulation. Among them, Zhengzhou took the lead in comprehensively relaxing purchase and loan restrictions.
"In fact, there has been no emergency stop in the recent local adjustment of housing loans or the policies issued by Zhengzhou," the above-mentioned person continued, which means that the local government has relaxed according to the actual market conditions.
In addition, according to the data of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Institute, since 2022, more than 60 cities across the country have issued various policies to stabilize the property market more than 70 times, and the policies issued by superimposed ministries and commissions have been nearly 100 times.
The industry expects that the current market sales have not recovered significantly, and the relaxation policy according to local conditions is expected to continue The Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) research report shows that in the first 20 days of March, the sales of new houses in representative cities decreased by 46.8% year-on-year, and the sales of second-hand houses decreased by 37.3% year-on-year. Compared with February, it has further expanded, and the market continues to bottom out.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) it is expected that "financial policy will be the main focus, and the demand side policy will be accelerated after March. Even without non-financial policy, we believe that the policy is enough to promote the recovery of demand."
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) research report also pointed out that the current industry fundamentals have not been significantly improved, the sales side is still relatively depressed, and it will take time for the land market to recover its vitality. "We believe that before the land market completely warms up, the pace of policy relaxation will not stop, and there is still much room for policy game. Relevant policies similar to those issued in Zhengzhou and Harbin will follow in other regions."
In addition to the continuous release of favorable policies on the sales side, for the sharp rise of the real estate sector on the 30th, other people in the real estate industry mentioned that in addition to the relaxation of policies, the recent news about SBLC of real estate enterprises gave the market the hope of refinancing.
Recently, it was reported in the market that Xuhui is seeking to issue us dollar bonds with a scale of no more than US $100 million and China Zheshang Bank Co.Ltd(601916) provide SBLC The same news came out of Xincheng.
SBLC is standby letter of credit, also known as guaranteed letter of credit. When an enterprise issues bonds overseas, commercial banks provide standby letters of credit, that is, to provide guarantee and increase credit endorsement for the bonds issued by the enterprise. This means that if there is a default, the standby bank has the obligation to pay.
In response to the news, Xuhui told first finance that recently, two real estate enterprises in the industry have successfully issued SBLC, and they are also exploring opening up and broadening overseas financing channels. The specific issuance plan shall be subject to the announcement. According to people familiar with the matter, Xuhui is already talking about it.
Not long ago, excellence group and Greentown successively issued US dollar bonds with interest rates of 2.91% and 2.4% respectively, both of which were provided by China Zheshang Bank Co.Ltd(601916) SBLC.
In addition to overseas financing channels, domestic financing of real estate enterprises also continued to release warmth. On March 30, the inter-bank Dealers Association issued several notices in succession, accepting the successful registration of real estate enterprises such as Country Garden real estate, Xuhui group and Longhu enterprise development, with an amount of 5 billion yuan.
Against a backdrop of optimism, there are still cautious views China Minsheng Banking Corp.Ltd(600016) management said at the performance press conference, "at present, we judge that the real estate industry is still in a risk release stage. The real estate policy is being gradually adjusted, the strength of maintaining stability is also gradually increasing, and the sales expectation of the market is improving. We judge that it will take some time."
