Since this year, the fixed growth market has been “hot and cold”. On the one hand, the number of landing and fund-raising have both decreased by more than 50% year-on-year, and on the other hand, the number of plans thrown out by listed companies and the amount to be raised have increased significantly. However, with the increase of market volatility, the profit-making effect of fixed growth has weakened.
fixed growth market “uneven hot and cold”
From the “cold” point of view, the number of fixed increase landing and the amount of fund-raising have decreased significantly.
According to the data, since this year, according to the statistics of the issuance date, a total of 54 fixed increase projects have been implemented, with a cumulative fund-raising of 79.584 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 50.46% and 50.36% respectively. At the same time, the refinancing structure of A-Shares has also changed significantly. The financing scale of convertible bonds has exceeded 80 billion yuan, surpassing the fixed increase. Among the top ten projects of A-share refinancing scale, only one is the fixed increase project.
In terms of “hot”, listed companies throw out fixed growth plans to maintain “acceleration”. Since this year, 146 fixed growth plans with data available have been thrown out by listed companies, and the total fund-raising is expected to be about 217.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 95% and 78% respectively.
In this regard, Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai securities and director of the Research Institute, said in an interview with Securities Daily, “During the year, the number of fixed growth plans disclosed by A-Shares increased significantly compared with the same period of the previous two years, indicating that listed companies showed great interest in financing through fixed growth. However, it is worth noting that the number of fixed growth plans finally landed and the scale of fund-raising decreased significantly year-on-year. This is mainly because the A-share market has experienced a large correction since this year, the expected rate of return of participating in fixed growth has declined under the volatile market, and the fund side has a strong wait-and-see mood.”
Since the implementation of the new refinancing regulations, as of March 29, a total of about 553 single fixed increase schemes are in progress (excluding the suspension of implementation and failure to pass the plan), and the total amount of fund-raising is expected to be about 1038328 billion yuan. Among them, the proposed increased fund-raising amount of 17 companies exceeded 10 billion yuan, and the top three projects with fixed increased fund-raising amount came from Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (45 billion yuan), Xcmg Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000425) (38.686 billion yuan) and Hua Xia Bank Co.Limited(600015) (20 billion yuan).
money making effect weakened
Since this year, 17 of the 54 fixed increase projects have seen a “shrinkage” in fund-raising, with a full fund-raising rate of 69%. The reason behind this is that the enthusiasm of institutions to participate has decreased. From the perspective of the subscription of fixed increase by securities companies and fund companies, a total of 31 securities companies or asset management companies of securities companies participated in the fixed increase of A-share listed companies, with a cumulative subscription amount of 8.257 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 50.54%. At the same time, the data show that the fixed increase subscription amount of public offering participating A-share listed companies totaled 10.142 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 65.5%.
Previously, in the refinancing of a shares, the fixed increase significantly exceeded the allotment of shares and convertible bonds in terms of quantity and scale. From 2011 to 2021, the amount of fixed increase fund-raising was much higher than that of IPO. From 2015 to 2017, the amount of fixed increase fund-raising exceeded trillion yuan.
Although the number of fixed increase projects has increased, the final actual fund-raising amount of many listed companies has significantly “shrunk” compared with the expectation. The data show that since the implementation of the new refinancing regulations, 257 of the 949 fixed increase projects have “shrunk” in fund-raising, and the full fund-raising rate (the proportion between the number of fixed increase projects and the total number of full fund-raising) is 73%. Among them, the “shrinkage” of fixed increase fund-raising in the securities industry is more serious (only listed securities companies are counted). Among the 13 listed securities companies that implement fixed increase, 9 have “shrinkage” in fund-raising scale, and the full fund-raising rate is only 31%.
In terms of market performance, of the 54 single fixed increase projects implemented this year, 48 fixed increase shares have been listed. Among them, the latest closing price rose compared with the fixed issuance price of 28 orders; There were 20 orders whose latest closing price fell compared with the issue price of fixed increase, accounting for about 40%, while the latest closing price of Yonyou Network Technology Co.Ltd(600588) , Ucloud Technology Co.Ltd(688158) -w, Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) , Yusys Technologies Co.Ltd(300674) fell more than 20% compared with the issue price of fixed increase.
Chen Li said, “Since the implementation of the new regulations, the fixed increase has given investors a better opportunity to buy shares at a discount, which was once sought after by the market. However, under the volatile market this year, about 40% of the fixed increase projects have been implemented, and the latest share price of the company is lower than the fixed increase issuance price, and the profit-making effect of institutions participating in the fixed increase is weakened. On the other hand, the fixed increase issuance enterprises are mostly small and medium-sized market value growth enterprises, but the current market is more cautious about the growth enterprises for a short time.”
