"We should be more and more optimistic" and "the situation of style differentiation may continue in 2022"... On March 30, the 2021 annual reports of funds under top flow fund managers such as e fund Zhang Kun, Xiao Nan and GF fund Liu Gesong were released one after another, and invisible heavy positions also surfaced.
Zhang Kun: long term tracking free cash flow
The stock position of e fund blue chip selection managed by Zhang Kun was basically stable in 2021, and the structure was adjusted. In terms of industries, the allocation of finance, consumption and other industries has been increased, and the allocation of pharmaceutical and other industries has been reduced; In terms of individual stocks, the proportion of individual stock investment with distinctive business model, clear long-term logic and reasonable valuation level has been increased.
E fund blue chip selects the top 20 heavyweight stocks, source: Fund announcement
In his annual report, Zhang Kun once again devoted a lot of space to "heart to heart" with investors and introduced his investment philosophy.
"We always believe that the value of an enterprise is the discount of all free cash flows over its life cycle." Zhang Kun said that when studying the company, free cash flow has always been one of the most concerned financial indicators. Although there will be fluctuations between years, it is not difficult to distinguish whether a company can create sufficient free cash flow for shareholders when it is extended to the dimension of 5-10 years. Further, from the bottom level, the extent to which the products produced by an enterprise are desired by its customers, whether it has an excellent business model and whether it has a moat to maintain a good competition pattern in a long period of time are important determinants for the smooth transformation of income into net profit and then into free cash flow.
\u3000\u3000 "As a manager, we always feel a great responsibility on our shoulders. The assets of the fund belong to each holder. For each holder, we actually hold a part of the equity of the listed company held by the fund. We will always stand with the holders and strive to find a high-quality listed company that can generate abundant free cash flow, and the generated free cash flow can grow over time. In this way, we can make the shares of the company The value of equity increases over time, and then in a long enough period of time, it is finally reflected in the net value growth of the fund. "
Xiao Nan: should be more and more optimistic
Xiao Nan managed the ten largest heavy positions in the first half of the company, including Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and other Baijiu stocks, including new consumer targets such as bubble Matt and Lining, while eleventh to 20 of the invisible heavy positions include more companies, including cyclones such as Yankuang energy, Shenzhen Transsion Holdings Co.Ltd(688036) and other consumer electronics stocks.
E-fund Dake will open the top 20 heavyweight stocks, source: Fund announcement
Xiao Nan said that there is a high probability that the economy will return to the upward cycle in 2022. Both the manufacturing side and the consumer side will gradually repair the balance sheet and income statement as the economy recovers, and the cash flow will also be greatly improved. "We should be more and more optimistic. At present, instead of worrying about when the macro data will reverse, we should think about what 'reasonable accidents' may be in the future - those things that seem unexpected but look back on the law are often an important reason for our excess returns or losses."
It is found that "reasonable accident" is an important index to test whether there is excess cognition. Some "reasonable accidents" have happened quietly. For example, policy adjustment may stimulate the innovation of enterprises. For example, the continuous optimization of corporate governance structure has increased the proportion of shareholders in the distribution of interests. The decline of some industries may have bred the rise of others. Xiao Nan has great interest and attention to this, and hopes that future investment can more reflect the research results in these fields.
In the annual report of e fund consumer industry, Xiao Nan also talked about her views on the consumer industry, "We are delighted to see that Chinese consumer goods enterprises have undergone tremendous changes over the years compared with a decade ago. New products, new models, a new generation of entrepreneurs and professional managers will always bring us all kinds of investment opportunities. Even in the traditional consumption field, the introduction of emerging incentive methods, management models and software systems will also inject new vitality into old enterprises," he said With an open empathy, we should understand consumers' behavior preferences, modern technical means, entrepreneurs' strategic choices and the micro scene of enterprise management.
Liu Gesong: style differentiation will continue
According to the growth report of GF small cap managed by Liu Gesong, the fund's 11th to 20th invisible heavy positions include Beijing E-Hualu Information Technology Co.Ltd(300212) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Shanghai Pret Composites Co.Ltd(002324) and other companies.
Gf's top 20 heavyweight stocks in small cap growth source: Fund announcement
Liu Gesong believes that the situation of style differentiation may continue in 2022. The potential value of an asset or its income expectation for a class of assets depends on the performance growth rate of such assets, the sustainability of the growth rate and the valuation level that the market is willing to give to such assets. Under the business model of sustainable growth, when the growth rate of asset performance continues to exceed expectations, the market is more willing to give such assets a higher valuation level, and vice versa. The probability of the conversion of new and old assets is different in the current economic boom period.
Looking forward to 2022, he is still optimistic about the growth sustainability and profit growth of assets in the direction of "global comparative advantage manufacturing", because he has established a leading manufacturing company with global comparative advantage, and the "moat" created by its entrepreneur leadership, advanced manufacturing capacity under industrial agglomeration and other factors is still widening. In the future, in photovoltaic, power cells, energy storage, panels, new chemical materials There may be more world-class companies in the direction of automobiles, auto parts and high-end equipment. In the future, he will start from the supply and demand pattern, look for excellent enterprises from the perspective of industry, and grow together with great enterprises, in order to obtain long-term excess returns for the holders
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