By midday, the real estate sector had soared by 4.37%, up more than 25% for 11 consecutive trading days, and individual stocks in the sector had set off a wave of limit trading Langold Real Estate Co.Ltd(002305) , Bright Real Estate Group Co.Limited(600708) , China Wuyi Co.Ltd(000797) and other 20 shares rose the limit, China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) rose 6.58%, and Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) rose 3.87%.
Data show that in the past 10 trading days, the net inflow of main funds into the real estate sector exceeded 4.7 billion yuan, ranking first in all A-share industries. The fundamental reason for this flow of funds is the special meeting of the financial stability and Development Commission of the State Council on March 16 The meeting pointed out that for real estate enterprises, it is necessary to timely study and put forward effective solutions to prevent and resolve risks, and put forward supporting measures for the transformation to a new development model
After the top-level steady growth was set on March 16, many places introduced economic stability maintenance measures. For example, the mortgage interest rate in Nanjing is down, and the purchase restriction policy in Fuzhou is liberalized to a certain extent. At present, the loan interest rate of the first house of second-hand houses in many places across the country has been reduced to less than 5%, and the interest rate of 4.6% has begun to appear in some regions, which is the same as the LPR quotation of more than 5 years this month. Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of E-House Research Institute, said that in the past, most loan interest rates were still above 5%. At present, the mortgage interest rate is flush with LPR, which helps the market recover.
In this regard, Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) said, with the opening of the current policy, the core problem of the current real estate industry is “old real estate meets new citizens” Behind the housing demand of new citizens is the two-way game between payment ability and registered residence policy. In the case of high house price level, low income level, difficult settlement and high hidden settlement cost, the floating population generally tends to rent rather than buy houses in the inflow land. According to the sample survey data, the proportion of migrant workers buying houses is only 19.5%. Considering that migrant workers are the majority of new citizens, Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) it is estimated that the proportion of renting / buying houses for new citizens is about 8:2. In an optimistic situation, the increment of money brought by the release of house purchase demand is 1486.6 billion yuan and 2900.6 billion yuan respectively.
the future beta of the real estate industry depends on the adjustment of industry structure, the pace of capacity clearing and the strength of policy support; Alpha focuses on the repair of the balance sheet and profit margin of key real estate enterprises by M & A, the accuracy of countercyclical plus leverage, and the long-term excavation of the value of housing scenarios continuous recommendation: 1) high quality leaders: Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) ; 2) High quality growth: Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Xuhui holding group; 3) Quality property management: Country Garden service, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , poly property, Xuhui Yongsheng service.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) believes that among the five cities that have completed the first batch of centralized land supply this year, land acquisition by state-owned and central enterprises is still the mainstream. On the whole, the proportion of land traded at a premium has increased compared with the last time, the land premium rate has increased to varying degrees, and the land market seems to have recovered. At present, the overall valuation of the real estate sector is still low. According to wind’s unanimous expectation, the dynamic PE of the sector in 2022 is 5.7 times, 7.5% lower than the bottom valuation level (6.1 times dynamic PE) on January 3, 2019, which is still at the lowest level in history.
before the land market completely recovers, the pace of policy relaxation will not stop, and there is still much room for policy side game. Similar policies issued by Zhengzhou and Harbin will follow in other regions, and real estate stocks are still Beijing Zhidemai Technology Co.Ltd(300785) entering in the short and medium term, with the relaxation of policies in non restricted areas, the second tier leading real estate enterprises with more third and fourth tier cities will benefit more; In the medium and long term, with the withdrawal of the fast turnover mode from the historical stage and the repair of the long-term balance sheet of real estate enterprises, the leading real estate enterprises with stable operation and outstanding comprehensive strength will continue to benefit. April combination recommendation China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155)
The rising tide can’t stop at all. Is the real estate fund going to counter attack?
The real estate sector continues to rise. Can it catch up with the limit tide?
