In early trading on the 30th, the lithium battery sector rose, with many leading stocks related to cathode materials. As of noon, Guizhou Redstar Developing Co.Ltd(600367) , Xiangtan Electrochemical Scientific Co.Ltd(002125) price limit closure, Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) rose by more than 8%.
Behind this, cathode material industry ushered in “manganese material” –
Musk recently mentioned his preference for manganese based cathode, and the manganese used in battery has attracted the attention of the market Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) the latest report also points out that with the increase of the permeability of new manganese based cathode materials, the amount of manganese used for lithium batteries will increase by more than 10 times from 2021 to 2035, and manganese raw materials for batteries are prone to structural shortage
Nowadays, the upgrading of electrochemical system takes the cathode as the core, and manganese based cathode materials have significant advantages in energy density, raw material supply and cost. In the upgrading route of lithium battery cathode, cobalt free battery, lithium ferromanganese phosphate battery and lithium rich manganese base are all related to manganese
▍ among them, cobalt free battery has been a major upgrading direction of ternary battery route for a long time.
Musk also said that it is relatively simple to use two-thirds of nickel and one-third of manganese as cathode materials. Therefore, with the same amount of nickel, the battery capacity is expected to increase by more than 50%; Panasonic also disclosed last year that it has begun to develop cobalt free batteries. Honeycomb energy has achieved mass production and supporting loading of cobalt free batteries, and its products have only two main elements: nickel and manganese.
▍ lithium manganese iron phosphate battery is an important upgrading route of lithium iron phosphate battery, and the industrialization has begun to accelerate gradually Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) Zeng duohong predicted that this technology is expected to be mass produced in the first half of 2023
On the whole, there are three main factors behind the rise of lithium manganese iron phosphate battery: ① its own performance advantages. Lithium manganese iron phosphate can increase the energy density by 20% while having the advantages of lithium iron; ② With the decline of policy subsidies for new energy vehicles increasing, the low-cost advantage of lithium manganese iron phosphate is prominent; ③ Chinese battery and cathode manufacturers have also begun to reserve lithium manganese iron phosphate upgrading technology, and the number of relevant patents has risen rapidly.
▍ as for lithium rich manganese base , it is regarded as the “most promising” cathode material for power battery after lithium iron phosphate and ternary at ultra-high ideal energy density. However, due to the low charge and discharge efficiency, poor rate performance and poor cycle stability of lithium rich manganese base, there will be continuous voltage decline in the process of charge and discharge. Therefore, to some extent, this technology is still in an “ideal state”.
Overall, with the rapid growth of shipments of ternary cathode materials and lithium manganate materials, the demand for battery grade manganese sources is also rising rapidly Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) it is estimated that the manganese consumption of lithium cathode materials will exceed 300000 tons in 2025, and the compound growth rate will reach 32% from 2021 to 2025; It is expected to exceed 1.3 million tons in 2035, more than 10 times that in 202 7
However, in the face of the high growth demand of the lithium battery industry and the high base demand of the steel industry, the growth rate of the upstream manganese resource supply side is difficult to catch up with the downstream pace.
Although the total amount of manganese resources in China is high, the grade is low, so the import dependence is at a high level. In 2021, affected by many factors in the industry, the output of electrolytic manganese plummeted by 200000 tons, and the price rose by more than 200% under the condition of short supply, which was significantly higher than that of other manganese products Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) points out that the supply disturbance of electrolytic manganese will lead to the structural shortage of battery grade manganese sulfate because battery grade manganese sulfate is often produced by electrolytic manganese acid dissolution.
It is worth mentioning that Xiangtan Electrochemical Scientific Co.Ltd(002125) also disclosed on the investor interaction platform a few days ago that the sales of electrolytic manganese dioxide products of the company are mainly short-term contracts. Due to the sharp rise of raw materials and energy costs and other factors, the product price is adjusted according to market changes.
analysts suggested that the layout should be carried out around two main lines: the first is the enterprise that takes the lead in the R & D and production of new manganese based cathode materials, and the second is the manganese product manufacturer whose business extends to downstream battery materials
A-share manufacturers, in addition to the four stocks mentioned at the beginning of the text:
Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) Huayue has an annual output of 60000 tons of nickel metal. Manganese sulfate can be obtained after processing the products of laterite nickel ore wet process project. After the project is completed, the products contain about 10000 tons of manganese metal per year;
Fujian Superpipe Co.Ltd(300198) has participated in Xingheng power supply. The latter’s business takes manganese multi-element composite lithium technology as the core, and its products are mainly used in light electric vehicles, electric vehicles, communication energy storage and other fields;
Yibin Tianyuan Group Co.Ltd(002386) lithium iron manganese phosphate cathode material is in the pilot stage, and the company’s new lithium iron manganese phosphate cathode material production line is fully compatible with the lithium iron manganese phosphate cathode material production line;
Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) subsidiary Jinshan mining has built a production line of manganese sulfate monohydrate with a production scale of 35000 tons / year. The further purified high-purity manganese sulfate is mainly used to prepare the precursor of cathode ternary material (lithium nickel cobalt manganate) of new energy batteries
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : from 2021 to 2035, the amount of manganese used as cathode materials for lithium batteries will increase by more than 10 times
