The net unilateral purchase of northbound funds throughout the day was RMB 12.726 billion, with a single day net purchase reaching a new high since October 2021
organization discussion
Wu Renhao, Yang Delong, Tao can and others have said: don’t get off in the second half of the bear market
From the chief public economist to the 100 billion private equity partners, and then to the head of the equity investment department with a management scale of 10 billion, they all choose to speak at the same time: the time of extreme pessimism is over, don’t get off in the second half of the bear market.
On the evening of March 29, Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, wrote, “the bottom grinding stage is relatively difficult, because at this time, the market has fallen more and rose less, but the moment of extreme pessimism in the market has passed. At this time, it is very important to maintain information and patience.”
Coincidentally, in a recent foreign exchange, Wu Renhao, a partner of Gaoyi assets and senior fund manager, said: “at present, it is to ensure that we are not forced to get off the bus in the second half of the bear market as much as possible, so as to share the potential returns of future economic and company development.”
billion private equity partners: survive the darkness before dawn
For the recent decline in the A-share market, Wu Renhao believes that in addition to geographical conflicts and other factors, it is also superimposed with the disturbance that the expected bottom and fundamental bottom of “stable growth” have not been formed in the process of economic downturn, accompanied by the accelerated release of real estate risks, industrial regulatory policies to be implemented and so on.
Risk aversion in the global market and concerns about the decoupling between China and the United States have led to the withdrawal of funds from emerging markets, with greater pressure on China concept stocks and Hong Kong stock markets. Over the past month, the above negative factors not only overlap in time, but also tend to increase in amplitude, and the market adjustment is inevitably extreme.
Taking MSCI China Index as an example, the adjustment range of this round is more than 45%, which is the largest adjustment in recent 20 years except for the global financial crisis in 2008, far exceeding the adjustment range in 2015, 2018 and 2021. The MSCI China Index has returned to its lowest level in the past five years.
“When multiple negative factors frustrate confidence, we still need to objectively and calmly say that it is the general law of the market for the best to come.” Wu Renhao said that since the fourth quarter of last year, China’s macro policies have clearly begun to “stabilize growth”, and China’s potential policy space is greater than that of developed economies.
From the end of policy to the end of expectation and then to the end of fundamentals, it takes time and more policies to boost demand. The market has many concerns about the uncertainty of the future, but there is still much room for macroeconomic and industrial policies, which need not be too pessimistic.
From the perspective of valuation, due to the superposition of various negative factors since the beginning of the year, the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets have experienced extreme systematic decline, mainly manifested in the rapid valuation contraction. If we give up now, it is almost the lowest valuation of MSCI China Index in the past decade.
What are the winners and losers in 2022? Wu Renhao believes that in this year with complex fundamentals, what is the winner still needs to be studied, and the loser is very clear, that is, to give up at the low point where multiple pressures erupt synchronously and investor confidence is extremely fragile.
At present, when the market is dominated by pessimism, we believe that positive observation is more important than hasty judgment. In extreme cases, we should respect common sense and rationality. So, what can we do now? Wu Renhao’s answer is: invest according to common sense and rationality.
Specifically, one is to select companies based on long-term value, which relatively avoids the risks brought by various short-term performance disturbances and rotation games. Many companies have a good investment value from the perspective of three-year compound growth.
The second is to select stocks with reference to the valuation before the epidemic, which is a more prudent measure based on the current inflation and monetary environment. The valuation improvement brought by the benefits of the epidemic cannot be regarded as the norm.
Three factors are based on unconsciousness before dawn, so as to avoid excessive loss of unconsciousness before dawn.
Fund chief economist: the moment of extreme pessimism is over
Recently, some large private placements have fallen below the early warning line and even below the liquidation line due to the sharp withdrawal of product net value, and have been forced to significantly reduce their positions or even liquidate. Yang Delong believes that this does not mean that these private placements do not look at the subsequent performance of the market, but the discipline of investment.
“After touching the early warning line or liquidation line, you must reduce your position or liquidate. This is the provision of the contract. Don’t over interpret it, which in turn is a signal that the market has bottomed out.” Yang Delong is optimistic that this often means that the market is not far from the bottom.
In his opinion, after this period of decline, the leading stocks in many industries have fallen out of value, and some have even been slashed. This time, many stocks fell more than in the bear market at that time, and the confidence of investors was greatly hit.
At present, the market has entered the bottom grinding stage, and the recovery of market confidence can not be completed overnight. Rome wasn’t built in a day. It will take time to melt the solid ice. In this process, we should maintain a good attitude, patiently wait for the market to complete the bottom and patiently wait for the market to warm up.
Spring planting and autumn harvest is now the time for sowing in spring, especially when many good stocks have fallen out of value. At this time, it is suggested that we should maintain a good attitude and bargain hunting to lay out some high-quality leading stocks or high-quality leading funds that have been wrongly killed.
At present, the market is at the bottom stage of shock. Yang Delong believes that we should maintain a good attitude to spend the grinding stage. After the end of the grinding process, I believe that a good company is expected to regain momentum. Investors who feel more pain at present may also be investors who make money in the next round of market.
public equity investment manager: what is the market worried about
Tao can, executive general manager of the equity investment department of CCB fund, communicated with his friends. The other party said that there was an inexplicable “vanity” recently. He then thought that the recent A shares also had such vanity symptoms. What is the market worried about?
From the first day of the year until now, the market has been in a downward trend. Recently, how do you feel that it is still soft and weak? The trading volume is about 1 trillion. It is a transaction of memory funds. Last week, the financial commission also gave a signal to stabilize the economy, but how do you feel that the market can’t be stimulated?
From the perspective of psychology, Tao can believes that there should be two reasons for the current weakness of the market: one is the fear of uncertainty; The second is the fear of certainty.
The fear of uncertainty is easy to understand. No one can predict the events of unknown uncertainty, but the securities market itself is a product feature of “pre risk and post return”. On the other hand, uncertainty is the catalyst to realize significant returns.
The fear of deterministic events may be an important factor in false anxiety. This fear of deterministic events may ease with the heat of the market. Past history has also proved that it is only when the market rises that it is “green and green, regardless of the way it comes”.
“We don’t make any predictions about the market, but from the perspective of human psychology, the current market may already have allocation value, and the uncertainty in the future is good or bad, but investment is not a matter of two days a day. A longer perspective may be a prescription to break false anxiety.” Tao can finally said. (source: Cailian)
