The bottom grinding stage is difficult. Xie Zhiyu of Xingzheng Global Fund recently said: what is the "investment anchor" that needs to be locked in the bear market

After publicly talking about his views on the market, Xie Zhiyu, the top flow fund manager of Xingzheng Global Fund, once again expressed his views on the current market and his suggestions to fund holders in the form of live broadcast on March 30.

When reviewing the market performance in the past three months, Xie Zhiyu said that many difficulties have indeed been encountered this year, and these difficulties will be clearly reflected in corporate profits. Therefore, the market's attitude towards many opportunities is hesitant, resulting in average performance. However, he believes that there is no particularly big risk in the current market.

In this exchange, Xie Zhiyu repeatedly stressed that the holders should study the funds and fund managers they hold and have a correct understanding of the fund yield. Give the specific problems to the fund manager. As an investor, we need to study the views and practices of the fund manager on the specific problems, and then make a choice.

In addition, Xie Zhiyu also admitted that in the face of withdrawal, fund managers must reflect on themselves, consider what is right and what needs to be adjusted, and the final result will be relatively good.

Views on the market

Q: what factors have affected the recent sharp market retreat

A: this year, we encountered a very clear problem, that is, from top to bottom and from bottom to top, the market is very fragmented. From top to bottom, we can see that there will be many difficulties this year, such as inflation, rising raw materials, epidemic situation, international environment, etc., including the 5.5 target set for this year's economic growth in the government work report at the beginning of the year. We all have a lot to observe how to achieve it. These are very clear top-down perspectives. The economic situation is under pressure, and the market is also under pressure.

From my own point of view, these views are right. Now we do face practical pressures, and these practical pressures will be clearly reflected in corporate profits. Therefore, many opportunities in the market are hesitant and the performance is general.

The reason why we can say separation is that from a bottom-up perspective, the market is better than before. Over the past two years, I have come out to communicate. The core of what I have said is that the enterprise situation has become different. In many industries and fields, the enterprise situation is very good. After gradually gaining global competitiveness, the degree of stability and the imaginable space in the future have become much larger than before, which is related to the stage of economic development. However, due to the good market performance, the pricing for these enterprises is very sufficient.

That's why I would say that the biggest pressure in the market comes from valuation. But I feel much better now. With the relatively large adjustment of the market, many enterprises begin to become worth starting. This view is related to the time dimension and perspective of evaluating the company. In the short term, the profitability of many enterprises, especially the middle and lower reaches, will be restricted by the economy, but the long-term competitiveness of enterprises cannot be deduced entirely from the short-term performance.

At present, it is normal for everyone to worry. The market will always be in a complex state. It is difficult to give a very simple valuation method. All valuation systems must be a combination of many factors. At this time, we need to think clearly about what money we make in the whole process of investment and holding, and really think clearly about how long the cycle is. Through these problems, if we know more clearly that we can look at enterprises from a long-term perspective and investment from a more stable perspective, there may be more room for tolerance for these problems. Opportunities for investment can be found.

Q: Based on the current situation, do you think there are risks in the capital market

A: Frankly speaking, there may not be a particularly big risk at this time. This year, we see that the huge decline in the early market is the superposition of many factors. Overseas conditions and concerns about uncertain regulatory policies are very important reasons.

However, we can see that a week ago, the government made a very clear voice and sent a clear signal to adopt a more reasonable approach in the formulation of policies such as zhonggai shares and Internet enterprises. At that time, we discussed the bottom of the market. I think this problem did alleviate everyone's concerns about policies to a great extent, and the market responded quickly. Next, the market attention will return to what I said, that is, excluding policy risks, focus on profitability and economic conditions.

Q: what do you think of the development of capital market

A: I feel that the market is maturing very quickly. I have always said that the market sometimes looks very ineffective in the short term, but it is very effective in the long term.

Five years ago, when we talked about many things, we would use the word "concept", because there was no more appropriate target at that time, or there was no direct target at that time, but now many things are very clearly available. On the one hand, the market is expanding. On the other hand, these enterprises keep developing in the market. Many enterprises develop very well and gain global competitive advantage. What these things finally reflect is the foundation for the solid and stable existence of the whole market. I believe that with the sustainable development of economy and enterprises, the market development is very stable and more and more mature.

From a higher perspective, the trading structure has also become more mature and the proportion of institutions has increased. Although there are various discussions and doubts about quantification and derivatives, and there are some disturbances to the market in the short term, from a long-term perspective, there are more and more market tools to help the market price more accurately. These things are also conducive to the development of the market in the long term. Moreover, with the development of Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect, we can also invest in Hong Kong stocks, and the scope of investment is also expanding. From an ecological point of view, keep going to better places.

Q: at the initial stage when the concept moves towards reality, it is both an opportunity and a great risk. How do you balance it

A: it's good to answer, but it's not good to answer.

A good answer is that a reasonable valuation can help you balance well; The bad answer is that valuation requires very complex judgment. Especially in emerging industries and fields, the judgment of technologies and companies that can finally come out is very complex and risky, with luck. It is very complicated for you to use reasonable valuation to help you protect your overall position and help you hold it to the greatest extent.

So I like to emphasize that valuation is a very important part in my framework. It is very difficult for me to put aside the valuation. Especially in the field of growth stocks, sometimes people say that the valuation of growth stocks is secondary. In my opinion, I don't think so. Valuation is always important. However, the valuation perspective is diverse. In the field of special growth stocks, valuation methods are diverse and not rigid.

Q: there are two obvious bull markets in a shares, 2007 and 2015. There is a relatively long stage in the middle, and the bottom grinding stage is difficult. What's your feeling and what's the anchor in your investment mentality

A: we do need a normalizing market. The real bull market is largely accompanied by big bubbles, but in the end it may not be possible to earn a lot of money.

On the contrary, it is a relatively stable and tepid market, which often makes money.

We really need to find our own recognized anchor in investment. What is an anchor is what assets are held. In fact, stocks are not afraid of falling much, but they are afraid of falling much forever. There are many factors that affect the stock price fluctuation. In the long run, the stock price will eventually obey the fundamentals. It is not terrible in the short term. The valuation is reasonable and the fundamentals are strong. The stock price will go back. The fear is that the enterprise is not so good, and the valuation is much higher than expected.

So what is the anchor in a bear market? The probability is your own judgment of the enterprise. The valuation fluctuates greatly and is ultimately subject to the real situation of the enterprise. When you are more and more clearly aware of the current and future development of the enterprise and have a reasonable valuation of it, this is your anchor.

suggestions to investors

Q: what do you think of the fluctuations in investment due to the current market adjustments

A: in the past two years, I'm not willing to recommend funds when the heat is high. I also talk about investment and teaching. However, when we fell more this year, not only did we come out for exchanges, but there were more exchanges between peers and investors. These are the manifestations of the maturity of the market.

In the past two years, our industry has made great progress and the holders have made good profits, but the income level in the past two years is very high. If we lengthen this cycle, it is actually significantly higher than the normal level.

I still want to share with you how to view the long-term yield of the market. We must understand that the long-term income core of the market ultimately depends on the level of roe of the enterprise or economy. In other words, how much more money the enterprise makes each year is ultimately reflected in the growth of the enterprise and the growth of the market. We believe that roe and roe should be equal to a stable level of return.

At present, we are still in a state where the proportion of institutions is relatively small and the fund managers can obtain excess returns. When it is different from the mature market, if you buy an average fund at a higher level than what I just said plus the premium or discount of some fund managers, the final rate of return you obtain is probably equivalent to the sum of the three parts. According to my own assessment, it is estimated that the annualized compound of 10-15% is a reasonable rate of return in the long run.

However, in the past two years, the compound income is far greater than this level. On the one hand, we feel that the past two years have provided a very good holding experience and also let you taste the sweetness; But on the other hand, many people enter the market at a relatively high level. If so, it is a bad thing for the holders.

At present, for holders, first, through the rise and fall of the market, holders should have a better understanding of the fluctuations of the whole market and how much yield they can obtain.

Second, if it is really high, we should also decide the next operation according to our own judgment of capital and risk preference. As I assess myself, I don't think the stock held by my fund is risky at present. In my judgment, it will continue to hold. If you hold my fund, I suggest you study these two points clearly. What kind of money am I making and your own risk tolerance.

Q: there are many funds and fund managers in the market. How do you understand fund managers from your perspective? From the perspective of Jimin, why don't you lose your eyes

A: Frankly speaking, it's really difficult. That's why we should continue to communicate with you. As a very realistic example, it is very difficult for me to determine whether I should recruit a fund manager or promote an internal researcher. It takes me a long time to determine.

The evaluation of a fund is a complex thing in nature. The return rate of a fund is of course an important indicator. The choice of fund managers is the same as that of stocks. Most of them will tell you that I am a value investment and a long-term investment. It is really difficult to say that I want to build a good channel and good competitiveness.

Therefore, in my opinion, in the process of investment, investors need to do a lot of research work. They can study the upstream and downstream, competitiveness and statements of a company, track it for a long time, see whether the practices and statements are consistent, and judge the good and bad places. Fund managers are the same. When they give you brilliant performance, it is a very important clue for you to find and pay attention to it.

Just like how I found the clues of the company, the quarterly report is a clue, but it's not to start after reading it. Next, try to see why he did well during this period. You can see the position, hand change, long-term history, etc. These things will help you understand what money the fund manager has made, whether it is good luck, good level or not long enough. If you study these clearly, your understanding of the fund manager will be more complex.

It's easy for us to make some money and inadvertently come to an industry with strong beta. For example, the earlier generation bought a house and accumulated wealth quickly, but he didn't realize it was because the industry developed in the early stage. Investment is the same. If you buy a fund in the early stage, the compound rate of return will be very high in ten years. When the industry is mature and wants to obtain excess returns, it needs to be studied. Otherwise, it is difficult to make special immediate results.

Q: what are the investment suggestions in the stage with more callback

A: my view is that the specific questions should still be handed over to the fund manager.

When facing problems, fund managers will have many factors to consider. For example, inflation does have a very strong impact on the market. Theoretically, the upstream profits are good, the midstream will be under special pressure due to rising costs and the downstream will be under general consumption conditions. Should we change the downstream to the upstream? But this approach is not suitable for everyone. That's what fund managers have to do.

Some fund managers are very sensitive to this and have enough volume, so they can do so, and even perform very well in a period of time. However, another wave of fund managers are not widely involved in this field, have no strong judgment on the cycle, and do not support the volume. On the contrary, they are prone to make great mistakes. The results of the two approaches are very different.

The third approach is to make a certain judgment on the portfolio. If the portfolio is balanced and stable, the adverse factors have been reflected in the stock price, or you can choose to wait for a longer time, and the final result will not be much worse.

Therefore, inflation itself is of little significance to fund investors. What investors should understand is how the fund manager holding the fund understands this problem. His understanding is very important for investors' judgment, and they should choose a method they agree with.

Q: "the fund makes money and the people don't make money" is often mentioned. What do you think of the fund yield and the people's holding

A: it is divided into two parts. The first is the correct understanding of yourself, the reasonable rate of return of the fund and the fund manager. These understandings help you hold the fund to a great extent. Just like I buy stocks, the fundamentals of a company are the most important thing. Only with strong confidence in this thing can you make the right operation when the stock price fluctuates.

The second is the practice after the loss. We must be troubled by losing money, but what will we do after the loss? On the basis of correct cognition, if the fundamentals of the company become cheaper and cheaper as you expect, and you still have bullets, you will be happy. When you fully understand it, the opportunity will always exist, but if you read it wrong, you should stop the loss in time.

- Advertisment -