Market review last week: (1) in terms of exchange rate, the US dollar index rose on support, and the RMB exchange rate continued to callback. (2) In the bond market, China US bond yields continued to rise, and the interest rate spread between China and the United States reached a record low. (3) In the stock market, European stocks fell under the influence of geopolitics, and Chinese and American stocks showed differentiation. (4) In terms of commodities, the situation in Russia and Ukraine once again pushed up commodity prices.
Comments on last week's important events: (1) the United States re exempted 352 tariffs on Chinese imports. Under the current high inflationary pressure in the United States, the tariff exemption measure is not only a great good for American enterprises and consumers, but also a good start for the return of China US bilateral economic and trade relations to normal. This move may help boost China's exports in the second quarter.
(2) Harbin launched the first shot to lift the restrictions on sales in the provincial capital city. Harbin has a serious outflow of population and weak fundamentals. The preemptive lifting of sales restrictions this time may help to accelerate the liquidity of the second-hand housing market and further drive the recovery of the new housing market. Throughout the country, banks "implement policies according to the city" in different cities. The real estate policy will be relaxed, and the subsequent purchase and loan restrictions in second tier and below cities may be relaxed to varying degrees to support the release of rigid demand and improved demand. (3) The energy system plan of the 14th five year plan was released. The plan defines the quantitative indicators of the energy industry by 2025, distinguishes the priorities and priorities of the development of subdivided industries in the energy system, and combines the emphasis of the symposium, which is the inheritance of the spirit of this year's government work report. (4) Grain production support policies were established. Just like our view in "heavy task, great pressure and completion - Interpretation of 2022 government work report", agricultural development may also be the "key" of this year. Especially in the conflict situation between Russia and Ukraine, the global Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) production and sales are threatened, and agricultural development is put in an important position, not only to ensure China's food security and stable food prices, but also to promote the overall revitalization of rural areas.
Restatement of recent views: (1) China's monetary policy: China's interest rate cut is slower than we expected. Under the Fed's interest rate increase cycle, China's interest rate cut may be pushed back, the direction of loose monetary policy remains unchanged, and the means may turn to RRR reduction; (2) To achieve the target of 5.5% GDP, we need to further relax the real estate policy and monetary policy.
Risk tip: China's macroeconomic policy is not as expected; The reform of state-owned enterprises is less than expected; Monetary policy exceeded expectations; Covid-19 outbreak broke out again.
