some respondents pointed out that the current market is in the bottom grinding period after the sharp decline, and investors need not be overly pessimistic. With the advance of time, it is expected that the means of epidemic prevention and control will be more accurate and scientific, and the impact on the economy will be gradually reduced. It is also the impact of the epidemic on entities that will force the steady growth policy to increase its force
On March 29, the second day after the "closure" of Pudong New Area in Shanghai, A-Shares operated normally, with a slight drop in performance and a wait-and-see attitude in the market.
In an interview with the reporter of the international finance news, several analysts said that the market is still in the bottom grinding period after the sharp decline, but investors do not need to be overly pessimistic. They suggest investors to allocate relatively balanced and switch to the growth sector on bargain hunting. Pay attention to the performance disclosure data in April, and look for investment opportunities from the perspectives of performance exceeding expectations, high dividends, high transfer and right filling.
A-Shares shrank sharply
On March 29, A-Shares were weak and volatile. The Shanghai index fell 0.33% to 320394 points, and the gem index fell 0.06% to 259267 points. Plates and individual stocks fell more and rose less, 3457 individual stocks closed down and 25 stocks fell by the limit; 1128 stocks closed higher, with 70 trading stocks. The turnover of the two cities was less than trillion yuan for six consecutive trading days, and today the turnover fell to 864525 billion yuan, which significantly cooled the trading atmosphere of the market.
In terms of 31 shenwanyi industries, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery led the rise with an increase of 2.58%, 10 stocks such as Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) rose by the limit, and the industry leader Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) rose by more than 4%. The sector has continued to rise recently, and its increase in the year has changed from decline to slight rise.
The coal sector rose against the trend, holding its head high with an increase of 1.74% today, with an increase of nearly 24% this year. Among them, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) rose nearly 3% today and nearly 34% during the year.
The biomedical sector rose slightly, but it was "not strong enough". It rose slightly today. The main supporting force behind it was the traditional Chinese medicine production enterprises, Chengdu Huasun Technology Group Inc.Ltd(000790) and many small and medium-sized stocks with market capitalization rose by the limit, while the leading traditional Chinese medicine production enterprise Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) fell sharply in the late trading, from red to green Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) also ended lower.
Some people are happy and others are worried. Recently, the market has fluctuated, there are differences in investment preferences, and the sector shows a rotation phenomenon. The electronics sector, which oversold during the year, fell by nearly 3% today, fell by more than 6% in the past five days, and expanded by nearly 26% during the year. Industry leader Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) today plunged more than 6% to 30.75 yuan / share, with a decline of more than 37% in the year Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) today fell nearly 3% to 196.73 yuan / share, down nearly 37% during the year.
The electronics sector has also been closely related to the household appliances sector, which fell nearly 2% today, more than 5% in the past five days and more than 23% in the year Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) all closed down today, with a sluggish trend in the year.
From the performance of last year disclosed by individual real estate stocks, the net profit attributable to the parent of most enterprises decreased to varying degrees. Therefore, affected by this, the real estate sector did not continue the rebound trend today, falling 1.62% in one day and shrinking to 0.81% in the past five days, with a cumulative slight rise in the year.
investors need not be overly pessimistic
It is noteworthy that A-Shares fell sharply in mid March, then rebounded sharply under favorable policies, and then returned to the downturn. In the seven trading days since last week, the Shanghai index has fallen slightly by 1.45% and the gem index has fallen by 4.46%. The trading days of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have been less than trillion yuan for six consecutive trading days, and the volume has been shrinking.
Why do A-Shares continue to be weak and volatile recently? The first quarter is about to pass. How do you view the trend in the later period?
"The current policy bottom has been clear, but the mood is still unstable. The gradual reduction of trading volume also shows that the wait-and-see attitude is the mainstream mood, and the market bottom will take some time to grind out." Xia Fengguang, manager of Rongzhi investment fund under private placement paipai.com, analyzed to the reporter of international finance news that in the short and medium term, combined with the situation of main index valuation and policies, the current medium-term direction is relatively clear, and there is still relatively large space for valuation repair, so we can use the market shock to calmly layout excellent varieties.
"At present, there are still some uncertain factors in currency and fundamentals." Zhao Yuanyuan, investment director of Jianhong times, believes that, first, the weakness of bond futures shows that the market has insufficient confidence in reducing reserve requirements and interest rates next month; Second, policy incentives such as real estate infrastructure need to improve the epidemic situation in order to really take effect. Therefore, the first quarterly report may lack surprises as a whole. Zhao Yuanyuan still maintained the judgment of strong market shock in the next two weeks and believed that the loose currency in April was a high probability event and would be the decisive factor affecting the future index, but the expectation could not be falsified before mid April.
"The impact of the short-term epidemic on the economy and the stagflation concerns caused by the continuous rise of commodities began to disturb market sentiment again." Lang Chengcheng, general manager of the research department of Furong fund, analyzed in an interview with the reporter of the international finance news that at present, the epidemic is sporadic, and the number of confirmed cases in some cities is still rising. It is expected that in the short term, it will have a great impact on offline scenes such as consumption, transportation, hotels and even infrastructure construction.
However, Lang Chengcheng stressed that the current market is in the bottom grinding period after the sharp decline, and investors do not need to be overly pessimistic. With the advance of time, it is expected that the means of epidemic prevention and control will be more accurate and scientific, and the impact on the economy will be gradually reduced. It is also the impact of the epidemic on entities that will force the steady growth policy to increase its force. Secondly, the current commodity prices are still running at a high level, and there is no sign of downward in the short term. However, from the perspective of the European stock markets mainly affected, the stage of the greatest inflation and geopolitical impact has passed.
"According to the law of the bottom of A-Shares in history, it is often from the policy bottom to the market bottom, and finally the performance bottom." He Jinlong, general manager of Meili investment, also told the reporter of the international finance news that through fiscal and monetary policies to boost the confidence of the capital market, monetary and fiscal policies related to the current steady growth policy have been introduced one after another, and the market bottom is often after the introduction of these policies. At present, there is still much room for the controllable range of China's fiscal policy and monetary policy. Therefore, in the process of the gradual implementation of negative A-share peripheral factors, investors need to pay more attention to the strength of steady growth policy and the performance of listed companies when making investment decisions.
tap the "opportunity" of exceeding the expected performance in April
According to the data of China stock market news choice, as of press time, 1694 of the 4768 A-share listed companies have released last year's performance reports. Among the eight A-share listed companies with a market value of more than 1 trillion yuan, the net profits of China Mobile and China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) parent company increased year-on-year. In April, the performance of listed enterprises will be released one after another, which has become an important focus affecting investment decisions.
Of course, in terms of specific operation, in addition to focusing on performance, we also need to comprehensively consider various factors such as current epidemic uncertainty and valuation.
So, what sectors can we focus on in April?
"Under all kinds of bad 'aftershocks', it still takes time for market confidence to repair. In the medium and long term, as the economy gradually bottoms out, the growth sector is expected to be relatively dominant." Lang Chengcheng believes that at present, when the economy is still under great downward pressure, investors should allocate relatively balanced and switch to the growth sector on bargain hunting. It should be noted that April will usher in the intensive disclosure period of the annual report and the first quarterly report, focusing on grasping the structural opportunities of performance exceeding expectations. It is suggested to pay attention to: first, the performance of individual stocks in the growth track, such as semiconductor, photovoltaic, medicine and so on, exceeds expectations; The second is the "real estate chain" sector and the "new and old infrastructure" sector based on the expectation of fiscal policy.
Xia Fengguang believes that we can pay attention to some varieties with good growth expectations and low valuations. For example, the main line can focus on steady growth, benefiting from the undervalued value of policies, finance, real estate and other sectors; You can also pay attention to the falling biomedicine, semiconductor, new energy and other industries.
He Jinlong talked about the promising sector. "Electronic, military, Baijiu, and electrical appliances are basically the track with high performance and certainty. Now the risks of these sectors are mainly reflected in the fact that the boom is not as good as expected, the prices of raw materials are rising, and the policy risks associated with trade." but the recent trend of these sectors has not yet been formed, and investors are advised to pay more attention to market capacity and capital changes when they are laying the market. In addition, the recent capital volume of coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and medicine can be significantly increased compared with the past year. Under the background of strong policy support of the state for these sectors, investors can choose the stock layout from bottom to top in combination with macro factors such as performance report, recent market capital and so on.
"For foreign capital, more Baijiu household appliances, Ning index, etc., it is recommended to avoid." Zhao Yuanyuan proposed that the next month is the centralized disclosure period of the first quarterly report and annual report. Investors can look for investment opportunities from the perspectives of performance exceeding expectations, high dividends, high transfer and right filling. For example, the performance of electronics, communications, mining and other industries may exceed expectations and the valuation is relatively low. Another example is to pay attention to industries with high business cycle and dividend habit, such as coal, steel and transportation. In addition, the price increase varieties related to the situation in Russia and Ukraine, such as agriculture, nonferrous metals, or the short-term concept catalyzed by policies and events, also deserve attention.
