Today (March 29), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened high across the board. After the shock consolidation at the beginning of the session, the stock index fell back and fell rapidly. There was an occasional pull-up in the session and remained up and down near yesterday’s closing point.
From the disk point of view, following the non-stop of “medicine”, A-Shares have reached the time of “eating meat”, the subject of the pharmaceutical industry chain has led the rise, and the sectors such as agricultural planting, pork and coal have also performed prominently. The market of light index and heavy individual stocks continues, and the local profit-making effect is general.
It is worth mentioning that the concepts of aquatic products, seed industry and pork have performed brilliantly. As of press time, in terms of aquatic stocks, Dahu Aquaculture Co.Ltd(600257) , Zoneco Group Co.Ltd(002069) , Shanghai Kaichuang Marine International Co.Ltd(600097) , Cnfc Overseas Fisheries Co.Ltd(000798) , etc. rose by the limit; In terms of seed stocks, Zhongnongfa Seed Industry Group Co.Ltd(600313) limit; Pork stocks, Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) limit, Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) gains ahead.
Guosheng Securities pointed out that the worst time of A-Shares is gradually passing, and the high probability of index low this year has appeared. Considering that the current market is still in the stage of shock and bottom grinding repair, the reversal still needs to wait. With the introduction and effectiveness of more stable growth policies, the capital may return to the stock market, the pessimism is also expected to be repaired, the index can return to the upward trend, and it is recommended to maintain the balanced allocation of growth and value in investment.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[theme 1] pork
East Asia Qianhai Securities pointed out that according to the data of zhuyitong, on March 25, the price of live pigs was 12.38 yuan / kg, up 4.47% on a weekly basis, mainly due to the slow pace of farmers in some provinces and the strict control of covid-19 epidemic in these areas, which made it difficult to sell live pigs. The government’s purchase and storage action is expected to underpin pig prices and stabilize market sentiment. However, the fundamentals of pig supply and demand have not changed. The downward space of pig price is limited, but the upward momentum is limited. We expect that the pig price will still be in the bottom shock stage in the short term, and the pig price may rebound in the second half of the year.
In addition, Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) mentioned that 2022 is the best stage to lay out the pig sector in advance, and the pig cycle will probably reverse in 2023. It is expected that in 2022q2, with the decline of pig price and the rise of feed cost, the cash loss of farmers will be accelerated, and the stock of fertile sows may continue to be removed, which is expected to further catalyze the sector. At the same time, meat products benefit from the decline in pig prices, and the profit is expected to be further improved in 2022. Recommendations: Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Dongrui Food Group Co.Ltd(001201) , COFCO Jiakang, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , etc; Attention: Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) , Longda food, etc.
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) said that it reiterated that the current pig sector is still in an important layout window period: 1) the capacity continues to be decommissioned, which has decreased month on month for eight consecutive months since July last year, the capacity decline has maintained high intensity, the direction of decommissioning has maintained high stability, and is expected to accelerate under multiple factors such as supply and demand and cost; 2) The pig price is in the bottom area, and the downward space is very small, which is in an environment extremely conducive to the deregulation of production capacity; 3) The valuation is still at the bottom. In particular, the head enterprises are at the bottom corresponding to the valuation in 2022, which is sufficiently defensive and brings greater flexibility to the upward period of pig price. Therefore, at present, it is still in a very good configuration time point, and the pig sector continues to be recommended.
[Theme 2] agricultural planting
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) said he was optimistic about the upward trend of grain price boom in 2022. On the one hand, it is good for the planting and seed sector. On the other hand, the rise of the cost of feed raw materials may accelerate the reversal of the pig price cycle, so it is optimistic about the investment opportunities of the pig sector. Specific targets: 1) planting sector: recommend Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) , and pay attention to Heilongjiang Agriculture Company Limited(600598) . 2) Relevant Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) section: recommend Cofco Sugar Holding Co.Ltd(600737) and pay attention to China Hainan Rubber Industry Group Co.Ltd(601118) . 3) Seed sector: recommended Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , etc. 4) Recommendations for pig breeding sector: Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Dongrui Food Group Co.Ltd(001201) , COFCO Jiakang, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , etc.
In terms of the seed industry sector, Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) mentioned that the price of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) such as soybean meal and wheat has reached a 14 year high, and the problem of food security has become more prominent, which further stimulates the improvement of the landscape of the planting industry chain. The “new seed law” passed by China will be implemented from March 1, 2022, which is conducive to strengthening the protection of intellectual property rights in the seed industry and encouraging the innovation and breakthrough of breeding technology in the industry. The Department of agriculture and rural areas of Gansu Province recently issued a notice on the work plan for the supervision of agricultural genetically modified organisms in Gansu Province in 2022, which emphasizes preventing the proliferation of illegal genetically modified crops and promoting the healthy development of the research and application of agricultural genetically modified organisms. With the continuous improvement of industrial policies and the strict supervision of local governments, the application of biological breeding technology will be closer and closer. If the relevant systems of “Document No. 1” are issued smoothly, it will be of great significance for seed industry enterprises that have obtained genetically modified safety certificates in the early stage. Relevant listed companies include Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) .
For the agricultural industry opportunities in 2022, China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities pointed out that it firmly recommended the pig cycle. The core view is that in the bottom stage of the pig cycle, the deep loss period is the best time to layout breeding stocks. From the perspective of expectation, there will be no worse expectation. The risk of breeding stocks has been released in large quantities, and the safety margin is very high. With the decline of the number of fertile sows and the decline of pig prices again, the production capacity continues to clear, which is good for the industry to meet the dawn. Based on our judgment of the second bottom of 22q2-3, 22q1 is expected to be the second best time point for the layout of breeding stocks.
[Topic 3] covid-19 test
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) said that the valuation of the pharmaceutical sector has entered a reasonable range and the allocation value is prominent. Entering the disclosure period of the annual report and the first quarterly report, we suggest to focus on two main lines. The first is the high-profile and reasonable valuation sector, including CXO (focusing on CXO leaders and cdmo enterprises) and anti epidemic main line (upstream industrial chain of vaccines / testing / drugs / specific drugs, etc.); The second is the undervalued and expected reversal of performance, including traditional Chinese medicine, blood products, medical equipment (mainly new medical infrastructure), etc.
Based on the changes and invariance of pharmaceutical investment, the institution further believes that investment opportunities in the direction of innovation and internationalization should be actively grasped in the future. In terms of innovative drugs and vaccines, Xinda Biology (H) and Rongchang Biology (H) are recommended; In terms of CXO, Yao Mingsheng (H), Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) , Shanghai Haoyuan Chemexpress Co.Ltd(688131) , Pharmablock Sciences (Nanjing) Inc(300725) ; In the field of equipment and Life Sciences, recommend Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , minimally invasive medicine (H), Shinva Medical Instrument Co.Ltd(600587) , Amoy Diagnostics Co.Ltd(300685) ; In terms of innovative cutting-edge technologies, pay attention to unlisted enterprises such as Aibo biology; For domestic consumption, we recommend Jinxin reproduction (H), Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) , Shandong Wit Dyne Health Co.Ltd(000915) , Boya Bio-Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(300294) .
Guosheng securities mentioned that the main line of covid-19 should be strictly selected step by step, attach great importance to domestic covid-19 small molecule therapeutic drugs, grasp the faucet on the one hand and dig the poor expectation on the other hand. Vaccines should be given renewed attention. In fact, there are four aspects of medium and short-term medicine: covid-19 medicine, traditional Chinese medicine, first quarter report and cdmo after clearing chips From a one-year perspective, under the unique political and economic environment outside China this year, the relative comparative advantage of medicine has become more and more obvious after falling for nearly 9 months. It is suggested to gradually increase the attention and allocation of medicine.
Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) pointed out that both Pfizer and MSD have authorized their small molecule drug patents to MPP, and the relevant authorized generic pharmaceutical enterprises in China are expected to increase their volume. At the same time, they pay attention to the theme investment opportunities of covid-19 small molecule oral drug industry chain, such as some upstream intermediates and API CMO / cdmo enterprises. Traditional Chinese medicine: it is suggested to pay attention to the traditional Chinese medicine targets recommended for traditional Chinese medicine treatment in the new diagnosis and treatment guidelines.
[theme 4] coal
Shenyin Wanguo Securities mentioned that the global coal supply lacks elasticity and the supply and demand pattern is tight. At present, China’s coal production capacity has entered a contraction period, and the withdrawal of coal production capacity under “carbon neutralization” has accelerated. At the same time, the amendment to the new criminal law suppresses the overproduction of coal mines. Even if some nuclear increased production capacity is released, it is still difficult to change the supply tension in the medium-term 3-5 years; On the import side, the overall output of major international coal producers related to China has fallen sharply, and the import can not make up for the gap, and we are facing a shortage of global coal supply. China’s supply gap is expected to expand year by year from 2022 to 2025.
In addition, Cinda Securities said that in the next 2-3 months, as all parts of the South enter the peak summer stage, coal supply will still face great pressure. At this stage, the industry fundamentals, the underlying logic of the policy and the direct effect are favorable for the repair and improvement of the valuation of the sector. Considering the certainty of the high growth of performance in the first half of this year, it is the best stage for bargain hunting to allocate the coal sector.
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities believes that under the premise of steady economic growth, coal consumption is expected to maintain a certain positive growth. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, coal consumption can still maintain positive growth. During the 15th Five Year Plan period, with the development of clean and efficient utilization technology of coal, China’s coal has natural price advantages in traditional fossil energy (coal, oil and natural gas), which is expected to be more applied in coal power and non power fields. On the premise of steady economic growth in China, coal consumption is expected to maintain a certain positive growth. Invest in coal stocks and enjoy the dividends gradually realized by the cost advantage of coal. Policy regulation will cause the repetition of the investment process, but the long-term direction is clear.
