In early trading today, A-Shares fluctuated slightly as a whole, and the main stock indexes rose and fell. After the transaction between the two cities fell below 900 billion yuan yesterday, there was a trend of further reduction, indicating that market sentiment still needs to be restored.
On the disk, agricultural stocks were fully active, with the increase of aquatic products, pork, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and agrochemical sectors leading, and the decline of eastern and western sectors, combustible ice, gallium nitride and green buildings leading. The net outflow of funds from Beishang was 2.783 billion yuan.
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alert to food crisis, agricultural stocks continued to strengthen
Agricultural stocks have strengthened frequently recently. The subdivided aquatic products sector once soared by nearly 6% this morning, and has risen by nearly 20% from the low point in the past two weeks. Many stocks such as Dahu Aquaculture Co.Ltd(600257) , Zoneco Group Co.Ltd(002069) and so on rose by the limit; The pork sector index also rose more than 2% during the session, closing at the positive line for the 10th consecutive day, Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) and other daily limits; Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, seed industry, pesticide, chemical fertilizer and other sectors rose strongly one after another, Fujian Wanchen Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300972) , Zhongnongfa Seed Industry Group Co.Ltd(600313) and other sectors rose by more than 10%.
Russia and Ukraine are important food producers and exporters in the world. According to the information released on the FAO website, Russia and Ukraine are the world’s largest and fifth largest wheat exporters respectively. 19% of the world’s barley, 14% of wheat and 4% of corn are produced in these two countries. In addition, Russia is also a major fertilizer producer in the world. Since the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the western countries led by the United States have increased sanctions layer by layer, and the changes in the regional situation and export restrictions on Russia have caused anxiety about global food shortages, and local food prices have continued to rise.
Data show that since 2022, the price of wheat futures on the Chicago Futures Exchange has increased by more than 70%, a new high since March 2008, and the price of corn and soybean futures has increased by about 30%. According to statistics, 80% of Egypt’s imported grain comes from Russia and Ukraine. The country’s flour price rose to 11000 Egyptian pounds in March from an average of 9000 Egyptian pounds per ton in February. Nearly 40% of Turkey’s sunflower oil depends on imports. The main import source countries are Russia and Ukraine. Recently, the price of sunflower oil in Turkey has increased by more than 30%.
The United Nations World Food Programme and other international organizations recently issued a warning that under the multiple blows of global climate change, regional conflicts and the continuation of the epidemic, the global food price index averaged 140.7 points in February 2022, a year-on-year increase of 24.1%, a record high, and 44 million people in 38 countries are hovering on the edge of famine.
In response to the crisis, Ukraine, Hungary, Argentina and other countries have successively issued food export bans, and some countries are buying a large amount of food from the international market. The EU is also brewing the first agricultural crisis disposal fund in history, with a total scale of 1.5 billion euros, and plans to release nearly 4 million hectares of fallow land to grow crops.
According to the prediction of Goldman Sachs Group, affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the prices of various crops will further jump. Under the circumstances of shipping interruption, soaring purchase costs and worrying planting prospects in the new season in Ukraine, the global grain market is bound to face the “most serious impact” since the 1970s.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) believes that although China’s grain and important Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) stocks are sufficient and the level of supply security is high, the current international situation is complex and grim, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) market fluctuations have intensified, some prices have risen significantly and other unstable factors have increased, and China’s agricultural production is also facing new challenges. The supply of soybeans, corn and wheat in China is in a tight balance as a whole, and the prices may remain high in the future. The prosperity of the planting industry chain is highly uncertain. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) .
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“ice and fire” tests the real estate industry
The real estate sector continued to rise after the sharp decline of the previous day. Data show that as of press time, there was a net outflow of more than 800 million yuan of main funds. Yesterday’s Dragon and tiger list data also showed that institutions and northbound funds have significantly reduced their holdings of Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) , with a total net purchase of 81.54 million yuan for the top five seats and a total net sales of 185 million yuan for the top five seats
In addition, Citychamp Dartong Co.Ltd(600067) which had risen the limit for 5 days on the 8th in a row, fell the limit again today after falling the limit yesterday; Sundy Land Investment Co.Ltd(600077) recently, which had been trading at the 12 limit since March, also made a sharp correction again and again. This morning, it once again fell by more than 9% Yang Guang Co.Ltd(000608) , China Fortune Land Development Co.Ltd(600340) , Metro Land Corporation Ltd(600683) , Dongguan Winnerway Industry Zone Ltd(000573) and other early trading share prices suffered heavy losses.
Rongchuang China announced on March 28 that since the unaudited annual results of 2021 could not be published on or before March 31, 2022, the trading of the shares of the company would be suspended on the stock exchange of Hong Kong Limited from 9 a.m. on April 1, 2022. Affected by this news, Hong Kong stock rongchuang China fell nearly 20% in early trading.
The announcement disclosed that recently, due to the problems related to overseas loans caused by the downgrade of rongchuang China by international rating agencies, rongchuang China is communicating solutions with relevant creditors, and the uncertainty of the impact on the financial statements such as the extension of domestic public bonds of rongchuang real estate, rongchuang China is expected to be unable to complete the preparation of the group’s financial statements by the end of this month. At the same time, rongchuang also said that it would publish the audited annual performance of the group in 2021 as soon as practicable.
In addition, the board meeting was originally scheduled to be held on March 31, but since rongchuang China will not publish the unaudited annual results of 2021, the board meeting will be postponed.
The debt crisis has been a lingering nightmare for real estate in recent years, but on the contrary, real estate stocks have strengthened frequently since March. For example, as announced on Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) 18, due to the superimposed impact of macroeconomic environment, industry environment and financing environment, liquidity is tense at different stages Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) failed to pay the interest of overseas bonds on schedule, which accelerated the maturity of the company’s debt financing instruments “17 Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) mtn001”, “17 Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) mtn004”, “20 Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) mtn001” and “20 Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) mtn003”. As of the announcement date, Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) failed to obtain exemption from the cross protection provisions of the above accelerated maturity bonds, that is, failed to pay the accumulated principal and interest of the above accelerated maturity bonds in full, totaling RMB 5.028 billion.
And Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) share price almost started the journey of limit rise from that time.
In addition to Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) , Tahoe Group Co.Ltd(000732) , China Fortune Land Development Co.Ltd(600340) and other thunder blasting real estate enterprises all strengthened repeatedly and raised the limit for many times in March.
However, Chongqingyukaifaco.Ltd(000514) , China Wuyi Co.Ltd(000797) , Tianjin Realty Development (Group) Co.Ltd(600322) , Guangdong Shirong Zhaoye Co.Ltd(002016) and other real estate stocks continued to rise in the morning trading limit, among which Cccg Real Estate Corporation Limited(000736) is the “ground Sky board”. At the beginning of the opening, Cccg Real Estate Corporation Limited(000736) once fell sharply, the lowest moment reached the limit price, and then rose to the limit price in a straight line after a slight shock. This is the 10th consecutive day of rise, with a cumulative rise of nearly twice. Near the midday closing, a huge order broke the limit again, up 5.08% by midday closing. According to the data, there is a net inflow of more than 146 million yuan of main funds Cccg Real Estate Corporation Limited(000736) .
The recent strength of real estate stocks is closely related to the continuous easing of policies and funds this year. According to the monitoring of the shell Research Institute, in March, the interest rate of the first set of mainstream housing loans in 103 key cities in China was 5.34%, and the interest rate of the second set was 5.60%, down 13 and 15 basis points respectively from the previous month. In March, the mortgage interest rate recorded the largest monthly decline since 2019.
Most institutions believe that there is room for further decline in interest rates Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that insufficient credit demand superimposed the impact of the epidemic, and it is more necessary for macro policies to move forward. From the perspective of liquidity gap and cost reduction, RRR reduction, interest rate reduction, deposit interest rate reform and adjustment are all in the monetary policy toolbox of “timely use of reserve tools”. 2.85% is still expected to be the top of the 10-year Treasury bond. If we consider the possibility of further interest rate and standard reduction, the interest rate still has 10bps-20bps downward space
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