Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) is in a "troubled time". First, the price of Feitian series continued to fall, and then the share price fell sharply. "Old rival" Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) the eighth generation of PUV has also raised its price recently to benchmark Feitian Maotai. Is the status of "Baijiu brother" unstable?
Feitian Maotai prices fell
According to the data of several liquor platforms, the prices of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) liquor Feitian series have fallen recently.
For example, the wholesale price of liquor released by WeChat official account for today's wine price shows that the 53 yuan flying (2022) original box price dropped from 2955 yuan / bottle in March 22nd to 2700 yuan / bottle in March 27th. The price of bulk bottles fell from 2680 yuan / bottle on March 22 to 2500 yuan / bottle on March 27.
The original box price and bulk bottle price of Feitian in other years also fell alternately. Among them, the original box price of 53 degrees flying (2020) fell particularly significantly, from 3190 yuan / bottle on March 22 to 2800 yuan / bottle on March 27.
As wholesale prices fell, retail prices also fell. "Now the price of each bottle of Feitian Maotai in 2022 is 2800 yuan, but it was 3000 yuan a few days ago. The price of Feitian Maotai in 2020 and 2021 has also dropped, and now it is 3200 yuan and 3000 yuan respectively." A tobacco and alcohol dealer in Haidian District, Beijing told reporters.
why did the price of Feitian Maotai fall one after another
Downtown pressure on the economy and COVID-19 pneumonia has slowed down the whole wine industry since the second half of last year, and the demand for Baijiu has weakened after the Spring Festival. Cai Xuefei, an analyst at Baijiu industry, told China's new financial reporter. In addition, the market is more cautious about the future demand of Moutai, or it can lead to a large number of channels to clear inventory, resulting in an increase in supply.
In Baijiu marketing expert Xiao Zhuqing, in addition to seasonal consumption factors and the epidemic caused many consumer scenarios were greatly suppressed, hype molecules, speculators sell Moutai, also caused some impact on the market.
"The recent rapid correction has its particularity, which is an extreme response to negative emotions. This pessimism will improve with the control of the epidemic. We expect the rating to stabilize soon." Anxin Securities believes that.
Zhongxin finance and economics reporter noted that on the 28th, the price of Feitian Maotai rebounded in many years. For example, the original case price of 53 degrees flying (2022) rose to 2780 yuan / bottle from 2700 yuan / bottle on March 27.
For the price rise of Feitian Maotai, some analysts said that "I Maotai" announced that it would be put into operation online, which was a major factor. 28, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) WeChat public issue announced that the digital marketing APP, Moutai Moutai, will be officially launched on March 31st and launched trial operation in the official account of Moutai.
In the trial operation stage, consumers can make an appointment to purchase the latest four products in "I Maotai" every day: 53 ° 500ml Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) wine (year of the tiger), 53 ° 500ml Maotai 1935, 53 ° 375ml 2 (year of the tiger), 53 ° 500ml Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) wine (treasures).
Baijiu sector fell, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) once fell over 5
Although the price of Feitian Maotai rebounded, the share price of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) suffered a sharp decline on the 28th, falling by more than 5% during the day, narrowly guarding the 1600 yuan mark. However, the decline has narrowed since then. As of the close, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) shares fell 1.73% to 166080 yuan.
Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) 28 time sharing trend chart
Not just Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , but 28 days, the Baijiu sector was lower, and more Baijiu stocks fell, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) fell more than 6%, Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) fell more than 5%, Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) fell more than 4%, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) and Gansu Huangtai Wine-Marketing Industry Co.Ltd(000995) fell more than 3%.
"Recently, influenced by the international situation and the spread of the epidemic, the value of Baijiu sector has dropped, and the market is down. The valuation of the leading item is generally lower than that of the central level, and the value space of the long line is reproduced." Huachuang Securities said that from a fundamental point of view, the consumer demand under the disturbance of the epidemic is slightly flat. In the off-season, liquor enterprises mainly control goods and prices and digest inventory. The dynamic sales are stable, the wholesale prices of famous liquor are relatively flat month on month, the channel confidence remains stable and the fundamentals remain healthy.
Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) the price of the eighth generation of puwu increased, and the position of "first brother" was unstable
When the price of Feitian Maotai continued to fall, there was news from the market that the recommended retail price of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) eighth generation pu5 had been raised from 1399 yuan per bottle to 1499 yuan, which was the same as the current recommended retail price of 53 degree Feitian Maotai.
China news finance reporter noted that on the current e-commerce platform, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) official flagship store's eighth generation P5 price has been shown as 1499 yuan, but due to full reduction activities, the discount price is 1220 yuan.
Will the Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) price increase have an impact on the status of Feitian Maotai?
"Compared to the Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) eighth Dai Pu five yuan 1499 yuan terminal retail price, the current box flying Moutai market performance price is in the 3000 yuan, the loose bottle is above 2500 yuan. At the same time, flying Moutai is the Maotai Baijiu benchmark, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) is the benchmark of Luzhou Baijiu liquor, both from the product characteristics to the scene location are different, so the Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) price increase will not have any impact on Moutai. Xiao Zhuqing told Zhongxin finance and economics reporters.
Cai Xuefei believes that Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) the price increase of the eighth generation PUV to 1499 yuan is more about seizing the off-season to enhance the brand value. At the same time, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) should boost channel sales confidence and stabilize market sales sentiment by constantly upgrading prices. In addition, it may also boost the capital market.
The market generally believes that for famous wines, the 1000 yuan price band is the core competitive price band and the main consumer price band in the future.
Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) price increase, will it drive the price increase of other high-end products?
"At present, it is still very difficult. With the reduction of alcohol consumption prices and consumption trends in China, in fact, the pressure on the whole Chinese famous liquor is still large. Under such circumstances, only strong liquor enterprises such as Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Maotai can play a role in raising prices, and other liquor enterprise brands may be difficult to support the market sales after raising prices." Cai Xuefei said.
However, according to Xiao Zhuqing, after the price increase of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) puwu, other products with a price of 1000 yuan may follow up. "The follow-up price increase is mainly to consolidate the brand value and keep up with Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) the psychological price expectation of consumers." (end)
