In the first quarter of this year, the photovoltaic industry was not only "not light in the off-season", but also the downstream demand was much higher than expected. With the silicon component head enterprises signing long silicon material orders one after another, the performance growth of silicon material manufacturers in the first quarter was also significantly higher than expected.
Two silicon material enterprises Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) ( Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) . SH) and Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) ( Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) . SH) both announced the pre increase of performance in the first quarter yesterday, and their net profits increased significantly year-on-year.
Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits in the first quarter will soar by 460% ~ 553% year-on-year, and the growth rate of main business income is significant The net profit of the parent company is expected to increase by at least 8 times year-on-year. Stimulated by the high performance growth, as of the closing on March 28, Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) share prices closed up 4.63% and 3.36% respectively, and the share prices were reported at 43.2 yuan / share and 20 yuan / share respectively.
Since last year, due to the mismatch between supply and demand, the price of polysilicon has continued to rise, most of the profits of the photovoltaic industry chain have poured into the links of raw materials, and the performance of silicon material manufacturers has improved collectively in 2021.
In 2022, the landing of new capacity of silicon material is less than expected, and there are still bottlenecks at the supply side, driving the price of silicon material to rise for 10 consecutive weeks. At the same time, silicon chip leader Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) ( Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) . SH) announced the fifth price increase of monocrystalline silicon chip in the year, with a maximum increase of about 9%.
At present, silicon manufacturers are making a lot of money, but the shortage of upstream material supply leads to the rise in the price of silicon wafers, which still deserves attention to the cost pressure on module battery manufacturers.
head silicon manufacturers continue to make high profits
Since this year, the prosperity of photovoltaic market has continued to improve, and the installed capacity of 1 ~ 2 moonlight volts has increased by more than twice year-on-year. Under the high climate, the silicon wafer manufacturers downstream of silicon material maintain a high operating level, and the demand for silicon material is increasing. Despite the gradual release of silicon material production capacity, the supply and demand situation is still relatively tight, and the silicon material price continues to operate at a high level.
In this context, silicon material manufacturers earn excess profits. As a veteran of the photovoltaic industry, Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) which is in the process of substantial production expansion, expects the net profit attributable to the parent company in the first quarter to increase by 478% ~ 514% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits increased by 503% ~ 541% year-on-year.
For the substantial growth of performance, Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) frankly: in the first quarter, the installed capacity of photovoltaic exceeded expectations, the demand for polysilicon products was strong, the market price rose year-on-year, the company's new production capacity was effectively released, and the output increased year-on-year.
In addition, Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) it is estimated that in the first quarter of 2022, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 2.8 billion ~ 3.3 billion, with a year-on-year increase of RMB 681 million ~ 1.181 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 32% ~ 56%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was RMB 3 billion ~ 3.5 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 460% ~ 553%, and the growth rate of main business was significant.
As Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) focuses on photovoltaic industry, the main business of Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) involves three sectors, including power transmission and transformation business, new energy business and energy business. Among them, the new energy business mainly includes polysilicon, inverter, SVG and other photovoltaic and wind power products. As of the semi annual report of 2021, Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) of the new energy industry and supporting engineering business accounted for 29.16% of the total revenue, achieving a year-on-year increase of 144.65%, the growth rate being the first among all businesses.
It should be noted that the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company in Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) the first quarter was significantly lower than that of net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction, which was mainly due to the fluctuation of the stock price of China Southern Power Grid Energy Efficiency&Clean Energy Co.Ltd(003035) ( China Southern Power Grid Energy Efficiency&Clean Energy Co.Ltd(003035) . SZ) held by the company. Up to now, Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) holds China Southern Power Grid Energy Efficiency&Clean Energy Co.Ltd(003035) 150 million shares, with a stock market value of about 1.428 billion yuan. The company said that the first quarter has not yet ended, and the sharp fluctuation of China Southern Power Grid Energy Efficiency&Clean Energy Co.Ltd(003035) stock price will have an impact on the performance forecast data of the first quarter.
As of the closing on March 28, China Southern Power Grid Energy Efficiency&Clean Energy Co.Ltd(003035) share price was reported at 6.79 yuan, with a cumulative decline of 18.09% during the year.
raw material prices rise, component battery manufacturers need to pay attention to resisting cost pressure
The capacity bottleneck of silicon material is the main reason to restrain the demand for new photovoltaic installed capacity in 2021. The capacity "how big the gate can be opened" is regarded as an important driving force to release the downstream demand in 2022.
Since this year, although silicon leaders such as Tongwei, poly GCL, Daquan and Dongfang hope have made every effort to expand production, the industry expects that China's silicon material production capacity is expected to exceed 1 million tons by the end of this year, but the landing of new production capacity during the year is less than expected. Superimposed on the high operating rate of most silicon wafer manufacturers, polysilicon prices still maintain a slight rise.
According to the data, last week (March 21-27), the price of silicon materials in China rose. The price range of single crystal re feeding was 242000 ~ 253000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price rose to 248200 yuan / ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.16%; The price range of single crystal compact is 240000 ~ 251000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price rises to 245800 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.20%.
\u3000\u3000 "In the past two weeks, there is still no silicon material available in the market, and the transaction is light, reflecting the fact that the landing of new production capacity is less than expected. At present, the mainstream order price of single crystal re feeding is basically about 246 yuan / kg. Considering the climbing speed of new production capacity, the price of silicon material is expected to decline in the fourth quarter. However, the newly put into production capacity still needs to climb, some capacity will not form effective production in 2022, and the overall price of silicon material throughout the year will remain stable Hold a relatively high position. " An executive from a photovoltaic enterprise told the first financial reporter.
Faced with the rising price of silicon materials for ten consecutive weeks, the price of monocrystalline silicon wafer was raised again on Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) 25, and the price of products increased by 1.8% - 1.9%, which is the second time in Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) this month and the fifth time in this year. Among them, monocrystalline silicon p-type M6 165 μ M thickness (166 / 223mm) ￥ 5.55, up 1.8%; Monocrystalline silicon p-type 158.75/223mm 165 μ M thickness ￥ 5.35, increased by 1.9%; Monocrystalline silicon p-type M10 165 μ M thickness (182 / 247mm) ￥ 6.70, unchanged.
It is worth mentioning that Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) and Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) 's four subsidiaries signed a polysilicon material long order purchase agreement with a total amount of 44.2 billion yuan a week ago. The polysilicon material trading volume between the two sides was 203600 tons from January 2022 to December 2023.
"The price of silicon wafer is affected by both silicon material and downstream demand. The price increase at least shows that the downstream demand is still very strong. The demand growth rate in the first quarter exceeded our expectations, especially in Europe. The recent rise in the price of silicon wafer is supported by some demand, which is different from last year's completely digested cost rise." The aforementioned executive said.
The executive also said that despite the strong demand in the first quarter, the price rise of silicon wafers is related to the profits of battery module manufacturers, and the impact of price changes on the industrial chain needs to be paid close attention to.
After the price rise of silicon materials and silicon chips, the industry is worried about how battery chip and component manufacturers digest the cost pressure and whether the operating rate will be reduced as last year. The reporter noted that the component price of the overall bid winning in the near future was basically the same as that before, and there was no price increase.
"We note that the production schedule of components is still relatively full before April. The follow-up situation depends on the price trend of silicon material and silicon wafer. If the price rise continues for a long time, the middle and lower reaches cannot absorb the cost, and it is not ruled out that the terminal market may fall into wait-and-see. The operating rate of each link is an important observation index." The aforementioned executive said.
