Market conditions:
This week (3.19-3.25), the A-share real estate index (Shenwan real estate) increased by 3.84% (1.98% last week), and the A-share market (wandequan a) increased by - 1.41% (1.31% last week); The H-share real estate index (kroney real estate leading index) rose - 2.95% (7.35% last week), and the H-share market (Hang Seng Index) rose - 0.04% (4.18% last week). This week, the performance of A-share real estate sector was stronger than the market, and the performance of H-share real estate sector was weaker than the market.
Industry fundamentals:
The market remained depressed and sales accelerated. From the data, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in 45 cities (3.1 ~ 3.24) was - 42.6% year-on-year and - 23.8% year-on-year last month; The transaction area of second-hand houses in 16 cities (3.1 ~ 3.27) was - 32.7% year-on-year and - 32.7% year-on-year last month.
The decontamination cycle continues to rise. According to the data, the de commercialization cycle of commercial housing in 15 cities (as of March 24) was 654 days, compared with 586 days in the same period last month.
The land market is depressed. According to the data, the cumulative land construction area of 100 large and medium-sized cities this year (as of March 27) was - 47.3% year-on-year, and - 45.1% year-on-year last week; The premium rate of land transaction in 100 large and medium-sized cities (3.21 ~ 3.27) this week was 0.3% and 2.4% last week; The total land transaction price of 100 large and medium-sized cities this year (as of March 27) was - 67.1% year-on-year, and - 66.0% year-on-year last week.
Financing remained sluggish. From the data, the issuance scale of domestic real estate bonds (3.1 ~ 3.27) was - 43.1% year-on-year, and the scale of last month was - 18.3% year-on-year; The issuance scale of overseas real estate bonds (3.1 ~ 3.27) was - 36.7% year-on-year, and the scale of last month was - 90.1% year-on-year; The scale of trust financing (3.1 ~ 3.27) accumulated - 82.0% year-on-year, and the scale of last month was - 51.2% year-on-year.
Investment strategy:
After the financial stability and Development Commission of the State Council held a special meeting on March 16, six ministries and commissions injected confidence and policy expectations into the market, and stability maintenance measures in various regions were introduced one after another.
For example, the mortgage interest rate in Nanjing is down, the down payment ratio in Guangxi is relaxed, and the sales restriction policy in Harbin is cancelled. We believe that the central government's attitude towards real estate regulation has changed significantly. Under the circumstances that the current policy tone and encouragement direction are relatively clear, the support of demand side policies is expected to be more accurate and intensive, the support of financial institutions to both ends of supply and demand is also expected to be further strengthened, and the relaxation of purchase and loan restrictions in more cities and the further decline of mortgage interest rates are worth looking forward to.
Under the repeated epidemic situation, the sales pressure is further highlighted. Under the impact of shrinking demand and weakening expectation, both sides of supply and demand are facing great impact. The policy goal of "stabilizing land price, house price and expectation" will face great challenges. It is urgent to further strengthen the maintenance of market stability. The healthy and stable market is not only the need to prevent and resolve risks, but also the basis for the transformation of the industry to a new development model.
In the short term, with the gradual release of policies and the improvement of stability maintenance expectations, the industry policy atmosphere is relatively friendly during this period, and there will be a big game in the market to reduce the default risk of private enterprises. But in the long run, holding high credit real estate enterprises is a more stable strategy. Under the industry background of frequent thunderstorms in various enterprises, at the sales end, high credit real estate enterprises can win the trust of home buyers; On the supply side, high credit real estate enterprises continue to obtain financing support from financial institutions, and still have the ability to obtain land in the open market and acquire projects through mergers and acquisitions in the current market environment. Market reputation and business strength have laid the foundation for future development.
We believe that the advantages of financing will promote high credit real estate enterprises to gain advantages in the land and M & a market. The continuous land acquisition and promotion ability and high-quality credit endorsement are also expected to seize the opportunity when the demand recovers and further improve the market share. Recommend Vanke A, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) . The support from the financing side, after meeting the steady central enterprises and real estate enterprises in the head, will gradually overflow to the stable private enterprises, and the market will gradually restore confidence in the stable private enterprises. It is suggested to continue to track the leaders of the stable private real estate enterprises, such as Longhu group and country garden.
Risk tip: the risk that the implementation of industrial policies is less than expected, the risk that profitability continues to decline, and the risk that sales are less than expected.
