Viewpoint: according to the PMI data for four consecutive months, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still a rebound, and the downward pressure is still large. However, the data recovery may boost the market in the short term. In addition, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole has maintained a good foundation. After the central bank cut the reserve requirement and LPR in the fourth quarter of last year, the central bank cut the MLF and reverse repo interest rate in the beginning of the year, the monetary easing cycle gradually opened, and the market as a whole was still boosted under the expectation of abundant liquidity. In the short term, after a continuous oversold rebound, the index ushered in technical adjustment, and the short-term upward gap also ushered in covering Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) short term bad news dragged down the consumer sector and also restrained the index. However, under the current policy support, market sentiment is picking up, and bargain hunting is still a good time for bargain hunting and strategic layout.
According to the report of securities firm China, according to the data of the two platforms of “Buer sauce liquor” and “today’s liquor price”, the prices of all kinds of Maotai liquor fell sharply on March 25 and 26. In 22 years, it took less than half a year to fly from 3000 + to 2600. The decline reached 200 yuan / bottle in the past week and 110 yuan / bottle in the last two days; The original box has fallen by 180 yuan / bottle in the last two days, and the price has reached 2750 yuan / bottle; Other Chinese Zodiac wine and vintage wine all fell sharply, among which the 15th vintage wine fell by 400 yuan / bottle in two days.
The price of Maotai liquor fell sharply across the board, which also had an adverse impact on Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) share price. Today, the opening of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) opened a low price, and the market lost more than 5% in the intraday, while the whole Baijiu sector was all lower. Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) and so on were the new lows since the second round of adjustment. As everyone knows, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and Baijiu sector in A shares weight is very big, the rise and fall on the index fluctuation, so today’s index fell, and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and Baijiu shares have a lot of low.
So far, we can see that since the oversold rebound on March 17, the market has experienced the rise and fall of contraction and the technical adjustment since the second half of last week. Today, it has successfully covered the previous upward gap. It can be said that it is still a technical adjustment. According to the previous strategy, the opportunity of strategic low absorption can still be considered as a whole.
The reason why we can consider strategic low absorption at present is mainly due to several reference factors: on the one hand, after the fall of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut boots, the once suppressed global liquidity began to release, which may boost the market in stages; On the other hand, the slowdown of overseas conflict sentiment has weakened the impact of the rapid decline of the market, which is also conducive to the recovery of market sentiment in the short term; In addition, the tone of steady growth remains the same, and the trend of policy underpinning is obvious when the heavyweight meeting mentions stabilizing the capital market again; Finally, after the continuous correction of a shares, the valuation is in a historical position. According to the falling value, the time for strategic allocation is gradually coming.
However, there are concerns in the short-term market, which is mainly reflected in the impact of the short-term epidemic on the economy. According to Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , the impact of the current round of China’s epidemic is expected to be mainly concentrated in March to April, which has a great actual impact on the economy, or drag down the year-on-year growth rate of GDP in the first quarter by 0.5 to 1 percentage point. In itself, the pressure on our economic growth is relatively large. With the concentrated outbreak of the national epidemic in the short term, consumption may continue to be weak, and the economy may be under pressure again. Of course, from another point of view, under this situation, the policy force may be advanced, especially the window period of policy force in the second quarter, which may give a new boost to the market.
In short, from the previous oversold rebound in the recent adjustment, we still believe that the oversold rebound market is not over, and the current adjustment is still a technical adjustment. With the support of policies and various parties, the probability of the overall recovery of the market is increasing. Bargain hunting is still the opportunity to bargain hunting and consider strategic allocation.
