Current investment tips:
The Shenwan agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery index fell 1.42% this week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 2.14% in the same period. Planting, fishery and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) processing sectors led the gains, rising 7.93%, 4.96% and 4.48% respectively. Top three gainers of some key stocks: Xiwang Foodstuffs Co.Ltd(000639) (15.92%), Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) (15.34%), Fujian Tianma Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(603668) (14.99%). Top three declines: Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) (- 4.09%), Fujian Jinsen Forestry Co.Ltd(002679) (- 3.69%), Jinyu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(600201) (- 3.41%). Investment analysis opinion: layout cycle, waiting for new questions. Specifically, the focus is on the upward interpretation of the industrial cycle of “continuous deregulation of pig production capacity and sharp recovery of pig prices”, and the improvement of the profitability of yellow feather broilers with high correlation with pigs. Closely track the three sub industry themes: rising food prices, industrialization of genetically modified corn seeds, research and development progress and production application of new African classical swine fever vaccine (subunit vaccine). Focus on three types of Companies: cyclical improvement, theme benefit and clear growth: Pig Breeding: Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) ; Broiler breeding: Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) ; Feed industry: Fujian Tianma Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(603668) , Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) ; Seed grain: Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) ; Animal vaccines: Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) , Jinyu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(600201) , China Animal Husbandry Industry Co.Ltd(600195) .
Special topic of this week: monthly tracking of broiler breeding industry – the boom of white chicken is still in the doldrums, and the price of yellow chicken is gradually picking up. White feather broiler: the industry boom remained depressed, the upstream profit narrowed, and the chicken price bottomed out. In February, the price of parental chicken seedlings decreased slightly, and the breeding link remained profitable. According to the data of poultry branch of animal husbandry association and our calculation, the average sales price of parent generation chicken seedlings in February was 29.9 yuan / set, compared with – 12.1% month on month in January, and the profit of a single set was 8.9 yuan, compared with – 34.5% month on month.
The price of commercial chicken seedlings rose to 1.3 yuan / feather, a month on month increase of + 16.8%. The loss of commercial chicken seedlings narrowed, with a loss of 1.2 yuan per feather in February. Wool chicken prices fell, chicken prices rose slightly, and slaughtering enterprises turned losses into profits. In February, the operating rate and inventory rate of slaughtering enterprises decreased, with – 6.8pct and – 3.3pct respectively. The demand of slaughterhouses was weak. The price of wool chicken fell to 7.9 yuan / kg, with a year-on-year increase of – 12.1% and – 3.4% respectively. Due to the recovery of terminal demand during the Spring Festival holiday, the price of full production and full sale of chicken rose to 9.9 yuan / kg, with a year-on-year increase of – 6.6% and + 1.0% respectively. According to our calculation, the wool chicken breeding enterprises turned losses into profits in February, with a profit of 0.04 yuan per kilogram. With the rise in the price of wool chicken, slaughtering enterprises turned from loss to profit, from a loss of 392.2 yuan / ton to a profit of 22.4 yuan / ton. Yellow feather broiler: the production capacity of the industry continues to be reduced, the supply side continues to shrink, and the price recovery trend of yellow feather chicken continues. In February, the yellow feather chicken and the fast chicken remained profitable, while the medium and slow chickens lost money again. According to xinmu.com, the average price of fast chicken in February was 6.97 yuan / kg, a year-on-year increase of – 7.9%, a month on month increase of + 2.3%, the average price of medium speed chicken was 7.64 yuan / kg, a year-on-year increase of + 2.8%, a month on month increase of + 8.0%, the price of slow chicken (native chicken) was 9.19 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 4.6%, a month on month increase of + 7.6%, and the average price of black bone chicken was 7.84 yuan / kg, a year-on-year increase of – 8.1%, a month on month increase of + 5. Investment analysis opinion: the production capacity of yellow feather broiler continues to be reduced, the bottom of the industry warms up, and the expectation of turning losses into profits is relatively clear. It is suggested to pay attention to the opportunity of the bottom of the industry to warm up. Follow Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) . In terms of white feather broilers, the supply is still abundant, and it will take time for the production capacity to be eliminated. Against the background of clear cyclical opportunities or hard to expect, we are still optimistic about the medium and long-term development space of the white feather broiler industry. At the same time, leading enterprises have achieved results in cost reduction and efficiency increase, cooked food expansion and brand construction. It is suggested to grasp the medium and long-term growth opportunities of high-quality stocks and pay attention to Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) .
Pig breeding: pig prices remain at the bottom and pay attention to the subsequent process of capacity removal. Pig prices stabilized after a slight rebound this week. According to pig Yitong data, on March 27, the average price of national standard weight pigs was 12.30 yuan / kg, up 4.8% on a weekly basis. Affected by the rebound of covid-19 pneumonia epidemic in some areas this week, the circulation of pig sources in some areas with serious epidemic situation was blocked, the operation of slaughtering enterprises was limited, and under continuous losses, farmers were reluctant to sell, and the pig price was adjusted upward in the short term. It is expected that the epidemic situation in the northern region will gradually improve next week. After the closure is lifted, there will be pressure on pig prices to decline again. In terms of slaughter weight, the average slaughter weight of commercial pigs continued to decline this week. According to Yongyi consulting, the average slaughter weight of commercial pigs nationwide this week was 117.34kg, and the average weekly weight decreased by 0.2%. Investment analysis opinion:
We believe that the general direction of capacity deregulation at the current time point has been relatively determined, and the difference lies in the pace and extent of deregulation. In fact, the short-term pig price continues to be depressed, the feed is facing the upward price pressure of raw materials, and the industry profit will be squeezed in both directions; The loss of pig breeding may intensify and accelerate the de production of sows.
It is suggested to “eliminate short and seek long”: weaken the grasp of the rhythm of short-term capacity removal, pay more attention to the certainty of supply and demand brought by capacity removal, and improve expectations. In terms of target selection, the optimal allocation is made from multiple angles in terms of enterprise listing growth elasticity, capital security and valuation level. Pay attention to Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) .
Eel breeding: the 2022 fishing season is coming to an end. This season, the eel seedlings are poor and the harvest is a foregone conclusion. It is optimistic that the eel price boom in 22-23 years will be upward. In late March, the 2022 East Asian eel fry fishing season came to an end. According to eel net, as of March 18th, the three East Asian three regions (mainland China, Japan, Korea and Chinese mainland) captured 22.65-23.36 tons of eel seedlings altogether, compared with 45 tons in the same period last year, the eel seedling trap market in Taiwan continued to be poor. In the context of the loss of eel seedlings, eel farmers are reluctant to sell. Based on this, we are optimistic about the upward boom of eel prices from 2022 to 2023. If calculated by the annual average price, the current sales price of 3p Japanese eel (1kg3, about 333g / tail) is still at a moderately low position in history. In the past nine years, the annual average price of 3P Japanese eel has exceeded 130 yuan / kg in five years There is still plenty of room for the subsequent rise of eel prices. It is suggested to pay attention to the leader of eel industry chain integration Fujian Tianma Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(603668) .
Risk tip: the prices of pigs and broilers remain low, and the promotion process of GM corn is delayed; Breeding outbreak
