The national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the modern energy system plan for the 14th five year plan. See Table 1 for the installed capacity and power generation we calculated. Among them, the average annual growth rate of coal power is 1%, and the average annual growth rate of wind and solar power is about 18%, which can basically meet the growth rate of power consumption demand by 5%.
Energy structure: “by 2025, China’s total installed power generation capacity will reach about 3 billion kw, including 380 million kw of conventional hydropower, 62 million kw of pumped storage and 70 million kw of nuclear power”. It is estimated that the total installed capacity, 5-year CAGR of conventional hydropower, pumped storage and nuclear power will be 6%, 2%, 15% and 7% respectively. The paper does not mention the power generation growth rate of wind, light, coal and gas. If the proportion of non fossil power generation is 39%, we calculate that the installed capacity of wind, light, gas and coal in 25 years will reach 580, 550, 150 and 1.23 billion kw respectively.
Coal fired power units: 30 million kilowatts will be eliminated during the 14th Five Year Plan period (including expired decommissioned units). During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the scale of energy-saving transformation shall not be less than 350 million KW.
Flexible regulation of power supply: the proportion will increase from 6% in 2020 to about 24% in 2025, and the response capacity of power demand side will reach 3% – 5% of the maximum power load; In terms of power supply, we will strive to achieve a total of more than 200 million kilowatts of flexible transformation of coal-fired power units and an installed capacity of pumped storage of more than 62 million kilowatts by 2025 (according to the research on flexible operation policy of coal-fired power units issued by China Power Union in December 2019, the proportion of flexible power supply in Spain, Germany and the United States is 34%, 18% and 49% respectively). We estimate that in 2020, the proportion of flexible power supply is 6%, corresponding to 130 million KW, including 100 million kw of gas power and 30 million kw of pumped storage (coal machine should not be considered here). If it reaches 24% in 2025, it will reach 720 million KW, including 60 million kW of pumped storage (planned), 150 million kw of gas power (predicted), 250300 million kw of coal machine (predicted), and more than 30 million kw of new energy storage (planned), totaling about 490540 million KW, Less than 720 million kilowatts. We believe that the remaining flexibility adjustment power supply increment will be supplemented by the following two aspects: first, the newly added clean energy installation generally requires energy allocation and storage. If the allocation and storage scale of 10-20% is considered, the energy storage is expected to increase by more than 120 million KW. Second, through new electrochemical and coal smart innovation, the increment of gas turbine may exceed our predicted value. It is suggested to pay attention to energy storage regulation companies: Yunnan Wenshan Electric Power Co.Ltd(600995) , Shaanxi Baoguang Vacuum Electronic Apparatus Co.Ltd(600379) , Zhejiang Wanliyang Co.Ltd(002434) , Shanghai Pret Composites Co.Ltd(002324) , Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) , State Grid Information&Communication Co.Ltd(600131) .
Hydropower: Wudongde Hydropower Station on Jinsha River (completed and put into operation), Baihetan Hydropower Station (some units have been completed and put into operation), Lianghekou Hydropower Station on Yalong River (some units have been completed and put into operation), etc. To promote the construction of hydropower stations such as Lawa on Jinsha River and Shuangjiangkou on Dadu River, it is suggested to pay attention to: China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) , Sdic Power Holdings Co.Ltd(600886) , Huadian Power International Corporation Limited(600027) , Gd Power Development Co.Ltd(600795) .
Scenery: during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the annual comprehensive production capacity of the Western clean energy base increased by more than 350 million tons of standard coal. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the annual production capacity of non fossil energy in the eastern and central regions increased by 150 million tons of standard coal. See the following for the beneficiary companies.
Last week (3.21-3.25), there were still great opportunities for recycling companies.
1. Rare earth industry: the weekly average of rare earth price index was – 4.1% to 392, and the average value of 22q1 (as of March 25, the same below) was + 74% year-on-year; The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide 22q1 increased by + 99% year-on-year to 1 million yuan / ton. We believe that the prosperity of rare earth downstream is high, raw ore mining is limited by annual indicators, waste recycling is an important supplement to raw ore, and the price rise is good for the leading enterprises of rare earth waste utilization with capacity expansion. Suggested attention: Jiangsu Huahong Technology Co.Ltd(002645) .
2. Precious metals: platinum, palladium and rhodium rose from + 0.1% / – 2.9% / – 2.8% last week to 220 / 595 / 4262 yuan / g respectively. The price of platinum, palladium and rhodium rose before and after 21 years, and rebounded in the fourth quarter. The average price of platinum, palladium and rhodium 22q1 rose from 21q4 + 2.1% / + 18.8% / + 24.7% respectively. Last week, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the medium and long term plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry (20212035), which made it clear for the first time that hydrogen energy is an important part of the future national energy system, and determined that hydrogen production from renewable energy is the main development direction. It is expected that the hydrogen production from renewable energy sources will reach 1 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 00000 tons / year in 2025. We believe that precious metal catalysts will benefit from the development of hydrogen energy industry and the consumption will increase.
It is suggested to pay attention to companies with high technical barriers and regeneration Hootech Inc(301026) .
3. Lithium battery recovery: the price of industrial grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 485000 yuan / ton month on month, with an average of 405000 yuan / ton in 22q1, an increase of 472% year-on-year in 21q1. The quarterly performance of lithium battery is expected to increase by RMB 13.6 billion year-on-year. At present, the company has a capacity of 2000 tons of lithium carbonate and 3500 tons of cobalt, manganese and nickel. According to the company’s capacity planning, the annual capacity of lithium carbonate is expected to increase to 4000 tons / year in 2022, that of cobalt, manganese and nickel to 9 C.Q.Pharmaceutical Holding Co.Ltd(000950) 0 tons / year, and that of lithium carbonate to 5000 tons / year and that of cobalt, manganese and nickel to 12000 tons / year in 2023. Suggestions: lithium battery recycling industry Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) , Wangneng Environment Co.Ltd(002034) .
4, waste oil and Biodiesel: 1), demand is weak: according to official account of Argus, last week, because of the market’s deep fall in some EU countries’ intention to reduce the proportion of forced fuel blending, the European market for biodiesel market was light, 2, and the supply was small: China’s many epidemic blockades led to a significant reduction in restaurant oil output, and the superposition of multiple regional freight logistics was still unsmooth. The delivery price of gutter oil and hogwash oil further increased. Due to the high price of raw materials and the high difficulty of oil collection, many biodiesel factories reduced the operating rate, and the quotation of finished biodiesel increased steadily. 3) It is expected that the price stability and volume of April trading may be low. According to the official account of Shanghai petroleum and natural gas trading center, the price of biodiesel and waste oils increased this year. Biodiesel increased 50% from 7000 yuan / ton last year to 11000 yuan / ton today, and the price of waste oil increased 30% to 9100 yuan / ton from 7000 yuan / ton in the first half of last year.
It is suggested to pay attention to: enterprises that extract waste oil by treating kitchen waste Bece Legend Group Co.Ltd(000803) , biodiesel producers Zhejiang Jiaao Enprotech Stock Co.Ltd(603822) , Longyan Zhuoyue New Energy Co.Ltd(688196) .
At the stage of economic transformation, the attribute or embodiment of power consumption should be repaired. We believe that electricity is the development focus of energy reform in the next decade, and its cost is also the core variable restricting the economy. In the future, the country will strive to promote and support the development of the industry. Suggestions for attention: thermal power transformation ( Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) , Huadian Power International Corporation Limited(600027) , China Resources Power, An Hui Wenergy Company Limited(000543) , Zhejiang Zheneng Electric Power Co.Ltd(600023) , Inner Mongolia Mengdian Huaneng Thermal Power Corporation Limited(600863) , Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) , Gd Power Development Co.Ltd(600795) , Datang International Power Generation Co.Ltd(601991) ); New energy ( China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , Longyuan Power, CGN new energy, Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) , Zhongmin Energy Co.Ltd(600163) , Datang new energy); Hydropower ( China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) , Sdic Power Holdings Co.Ltd(600886) , Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc(600025) , Sichuan Chuantou Energy Co.Ltd(600674) , Guizhou Qianyuan Power Co.Ltd(002039) ); Nuclear power ( China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) , Cgn Power Co.Ltd(003816) ); Power grid ( Chongqing Three Gorges Water Conservancy And Electric Power Co.Ltd(600116) , Chongqing Fuling Electric Power Industrial Co.Ltd(600452) ).
Risk warning. (1) The expectation of economic growth and monetary policy lead to great fluctuations in market style. (2) The direction of power marketization is determined, but the development time is difficult to determine.
