Industry data
Lithium battery: lithium carbonate 503000 yuan / ton (0%); Ternary 622 precursor 164000 yuan / ton (3.14%), lithium iron phosphate precursor 24000 yuan / ton (0%); RMB 3.622 million / ton (0%); RMB 150000 / ton of artificial graphite; nine μ M wet base film 1.42 yuan / m2 (0%); Lithium hexafluorophosphate 515000 yuan / ton (0%).
Photovoltaic: special grade dense silicon 249 yuan / kg (0.0%); Single crystal 166 silicon wafer (5.5 yuan / wafer (0.0%); Single crystal perc166 cell 1.11 yuan / w (0.0%); Single crystal perc module 1.86 yuan / w (0.0%); Coated glass 3.2mm 26 yuan / m2 (0.0%); EVA film 14.5 yuan / m2 (7.41%).
Investment advice
Market trend
Dianxin index rose by – 3.8%, ranking 28th in the industry. Since the beginning of the year, the absolute return of Galaxy stock pool has been – 17.8%, and the relative return has been – 0.37%.
In terms of new energy vehicles, 1) national development and Reform Commission: hydrogen fuel vehicles and pure electric vehicles complement each other to form an energy storage system integrating pumping and storage, electrochemical energy storage and hydrogen energy storage; 2) Forum of China electric vehicle hundred people’s Association; 3) SAIC joined hands with Qingshan to land 20gwh power battery base; 4) Vision: another 40gwh battery project is launched; 5) Another 10 billion power battery project of China Innovation Airlines has landed; 6) Volkswagen China has reached strategic cooperation intention with Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Qingshan group.
In terms of new energy power generation, 1) the implementation plan for the development of new energy storage in the 14th five year plan was issued; 2) The two departments issued the 14th five year plan for modern energy system; 3) China’s first 25 year green power PPA signed; 4) Photovoltaic enterprise Lushan Xincai is listed; 5) Spain approved 7 billion euros of grid investment to increase the proportion of renewable energy.
Investment strategy: from the perspective of short-term game, 1) lithium battery: electric vehicles will maintain high popularity in 2022, so as to stimulate the demand for lithium battery. Battery leaders Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) etc. are recommended; It is suggested to grasp two main lines in the material link: expanding new customers overseas, Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) , etc; Tight supply and demand, strong bargaining power, Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) , etc. 2) Photovoltaic: the international situation is turbulent, the war between Russia and Ukraine is escalating, the global demand for getting rid of the constraints of traditional resources such as oil and natural gas is strong, and the value of new energy is prominent.
China’s 1-2 moonlight volt installed capacity was 10.86gw, a year-on-year increase, exceeding market expectations. It is suggested to grasp “inverter, integration and auxiliary materials”, and recommend Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) , etc. From the perspective of long-term value, 1) power grid: under the background of “steady growth”, in line with the great development of new energy, the power grid has ushered in a golden development period. The new infrastructure of electric power will advance steadily, and the digital transformation of power grid will deeply embrace new technologies and models. Recommend leaders State Grid Information&Communication Co.Ltd(600131) and Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) in the field of informatization and automation. 2) Energy storage: a key link in energy transformation. Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Hemai, etc. are recommended.
Risk tips
The risk of declining electricity demand;
Risk of insufficient consumption capacity of new energy power generation;
Risk of export sales falling short of expectations;
The risk of supply falling short of expectations;
The risk that raw materials rise too fast and seriously squeeze the profits of downstream production links; Increased competition leads to the risk that product prices continue to decline.
