Current investment tips:
This week, oil prices and corn fluctuated upward in the short term, and overseas natural gas fell slightly. With the advent of the peak spring season, the price of chemicals has rebounded sharply, and the profit of the chemical sector is expected to continue to repair. Consider the layout of the chemical industry from two dimensions: on the one hand, it is currently driven by the rise of overseas oil and gas prices, while China’s energy prices are mainly stable, and it is optimistic about the coal chemical industry, chemical fertilizer, chlor alkali and other sectors with the continuous expansion of the cost side of Chinese foreign products. Among them, due to the increase of overseas oil and gas prices, the prices of basic chemicals such as synthetic ammonia, methanol, triene and triphenyl continued to rise, resulting in the continuous rise of the prices of nitrogen fertilizer, phosphate fertilizer, silicone, ethylene glycol, caprolactam, chlor alkali, soda ash and other products; On the other hand, affected by geopolitics, potash is expected to have a short supply shock, and overseas potash prices continue to rise.
It is suggested that in the short term, we should focus on the chemical products with the expansion of cost difference outside China, and the export is expected to continue to expand or cannot be imported in the short term due to overseas: coal chemical industry, chemical fertilizer (nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium), chlor alkali and other target products.
Investment analysis opinions:
Adhering to the value, the first-line white horse pays more attention to alpha, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) (long-term high R & D investment + high capital expenditure to support development), Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) (benefiting from the expansion of oil coal ratio, accelerating the expansion of Dezhou + Jingzhou and laying out new energy and new materials), Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) (Youjia project continues to promote the growth of the company, and pesticide creation is expected to become the main development direction in the future) Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) (the global leader in vitamins and the continuous implementation of large capital development support to lay a foundation for long-term growth), Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) (the titanium industry maintains an upward trend and arranges new energy materials), Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) (the global leader in sweeteners and the superposition of high growth tracks and capacity expansion opens a new round of growth), Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) (China’s new retail + global capacity expansion is expected to become the world’s first-line leader), Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) (improvement of equity structure + acceleration of capital expenditure).
Attention to subdivided leaders: pay attention to Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) and zangge mining (double leaders of potassium and lithium). With the implementation of the contract price of potassium fertilizer, the price difference of potash fertilizer outside China is expected to narrow, and the lithium extraction from Salt Lake is expected to expand steadily. The phosphorus chemical industry, the titanium dioxide, and the integrated layout of the enterprise in the integrated layout of the integrated layout. Iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate. New energy materials, iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate. Focus on the ‘ Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) 96 Anhui Sierte Fertilizer Industry Ltd.Company(002538) , Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) , Stanley Agriculture Group Co.Ltd(002588) , Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co.Ltd(600470) Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) Cnnc Hua Yuan Titanium Dioxide Co.Ltd(002145) Anhui Annada Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(002136) ； Metal silicon and organosilicon Zhejiang Xinan Chemical Indusyrial Group Co.Ltd(600596) ; Fluorine chemical related companies pay attention to China Kings Resources Group Co.Ltd(603505) , Zhejiang Juhua Co.Ltd(600160) , Zhejiang Sanmei Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(603379) ; The rising price of staple grain drives the growth of agrochemical demand. It is suggested to pay attention to Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co.Ltd(603599) , Limin Group Co.Ltd(002734) , Hailir Pesticides And Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(603639) ; Coal chemical industry leaders Luxi Chemical Group Co.Ltd(000830) , Yangmei Chemical Co.Ltd(600691) ; The auto industry chain pays attention to Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) , Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) , Shenma Industry Co.Ltd(600810) , Zhejiang Hailide New Material Co.Ltd(002206) , Shandong Yanggu Huatai Chemical Co.Ltd(300121) ; Water reducing agent faucet Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ; Methionine bottom inversion Bluestar Adisseo Company(600299) ; Soda ash focuses on Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) , Shandong Haihua Co.Ltd(000822) , Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) .
Market hot spots gradually switch to segmentation and growth. Recommended attention 1 Semiconductor materials: Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) , Crystal Clear Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300655) , Guangdong Huate Gas Co.Ltd(688268) , Jiangyin Jianghua Microelectronics Materials Co.Ltd(603078) , Hubei Dinglong Co.Ltd(300054) ; Panel materials Puyang Huicheng Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300481) , Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) , Phichem Corporation(300398) ; 2. Wind power photovoltaic materials: Hubei Huitian New Materials Co.Ltd(300041) , Haohua Chemical Science & Technology Corp.Ltd(600378) ; 3. Tail gas catalytic materials Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) , Aofu Environmental Technology Co.Ltd(688021) ; 4. Lithium battery materials: Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) , Zhejiang Xinhua Chemical Co.Ltd(603867) , phosphorus chemical industry, etc; 5. Military materials: Yantai Tayho Advanced Materials Co.Ltd(002254) ; 6. Bio based materials Cathay Biotech Inc(688065) , Ningxia Xinri Hengli Steel Wire Rope Co.Ltd(600165) , Anhui Huaheng Biotechnology Co.Ltd(688639) ; , 35.
Downstream demand has gradually entered the off-season. The mainstream negotiation of aggregated MDI in China market is 19000 yuan / ton, up 600 yuan / ton month on month last week, and the mainstream negotiation of pure MDI in China market is 22650 yuan / ton, down 600 yuan / ton month on month The overhaul of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) Ningbo 1.2 million T / a unit has been completed. In March 2022, the listing price of MDI in China was 22800 yuan / ton (unchanged month on month); The listing price of pure MDI is 26800 yuan / ton (up 3000 yuan / ton month on month).
Risk tips: 1) the progress of new projects is not as expected; 2) The price of some chemical products fell sharply due to the obstruction of export; 3) Overseas public health incidents lead to unstable start-up of the industry and affect the profits of enterprises
