Current investment tips:
This week, the home appliance sector underperformed the CSI 300 index. This week, the Shenwan household appliance sector index fell 2.5%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 2.1% in the same period. In terms of key companies, Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) (5.5%), Aishida Co.Ltd(002403) (4.2%), Vatti Corporation Limited(002035) (1.8%) led the rise, and Shenzhen Mtc Co.Ltd(002429) (- 5.2%), Zhenjiang Dongfang Electric Heating Technology Co.Ltd(300217) (- 4.9%), Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) (- 4.8%) led the decline.
Data observation: the offline retail sales of air conditioners increased significantly, and the sales volume of chef’s electricity increased positively. A. white electricity data: the offline retail sales of air conditioners increased significantly, and the average price of white electricity increased by double digits. Air conditioners: according to the offline monthly data of zhongyikang, the retail sales volume / volume of air conditioners in February increased by 52.4% / 78.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was positive compared with the previous month; In terms of price, under the pressure of rising raw material prices, the average price of the overall offline retail market was 4059 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%, continuing the year-on-year growth trend for many months. In terms of sales of key companies, the market share of Gree’s retail volume in February increased by 3.94 PCTs to 26.6% year-on-year, Midea decreased by 6.82 PCTs to 29.0% year-on-year, and Haier decreased by 1.96 PCTs to 19.5% year-on-year; Industry CR3 (Gree, Midea and Haier) decreased by 4.84 PCTs to 75.1%, and the concentration of air conditioning market decreased slightly.
Refrigerators: according to the offline monthly data of zhongyikang, the retail volume / volume of refrigerators decreased by 28.4% / 18.8% year-on-year in February; In terms of average price, the average market price increased by 16.9% year-on-year to 5174 yuan. Washing machines: according to the offline monthly data of zhongyikang, the retail volume / volume of washing machines decreased by 14.2% / 2.6% year-on-year in February, continuing the negative growth trend; In terms of average price, the average market price was 3695 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%.
B. kitchen electricity data: the offline retail sales of range hoods / gas stoves have become positive year-on-year. Range hoods: according to the offline monthly data of zhongyikang data, the retail sales of range hoods decreased by 2.5% year-on-year and the retail sales increased by 14.7% year-on-year in February 2022; In terms of average price, the average market price increased by 22.2% year-on-year to 3553 yuan. Gas stove:
According to the offline monthly data of zhongyikang data, in February 2022, the retail volume of gas stoves decreased by 11.5% year-on-year and the retail volume increased by 3.6% year-on-year; In terms of average price, the average market price increased by 19.7% year-on-year to 1746 yuan. Affected by the price of raw materials, since May 2020, the overall average price of range hood and gas stove has increased year-on-year for 22 months.
Key investment points: since May 2021, the price increase of raw materials has gradually slowed down. Taking copper as an example, the price increases of 2021q1 / Q2 are 12.2% / 4.3% respectively. The price of 21h2 is stable and the marginal improvement is gradually obvious; Aluminum and stainless steel prices have fallen significantly since Q4, with a cumulative decline of 10.0% / 14.8%. At the same time, due to the lack of shipping capacity caused by repeated epidemics, the shipping freight rate has increased significantly. At present, the overall shipping freight rate level is at a historical high. We expect that the subsequent stabilization and decline of raw material prices, the recovery of international capacity and the decline of freight rates will drive the improvement of costs with strong certainty. We sort out the following four main investment lines: 1) weak real estate related uncertainty is strong, and policy fluctuations bring game elasticity. Recommendations: Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) (dealer system reform), Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) (Mofei brand + export of small kitchen appliances). 2) After the price of raw materials stabilizes and falls, the profitability of the sector is expected to continue to repair. Recommendations: Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) (Casati high-end brand + self profit improvement), Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) (tob business value revaluation), Hisense Home Appliances Group Co.Ltd(000921) (central air conditioning faucet + thermal management business layout of combined meter and three power accelerated new energy vehicles + undervalued value). 3) Product innovation has accelerated to create new demand, and new consumption remains high. Recommendations: Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) (Tianke brand explosion + export ODM), Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) (quasi first-line leader of integrated stove), Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) (leader of integrated stove industry + rapid development of e-commerce business), Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) (intelligent micro investment + overseas market development), Shenzhen Breo Technology Co.Ltd(688793) (Portable Massage small electric faucet + accelerated expansion of offline stores).
4) independent brands are rising at sea, and the trend of global expansion is becoming more and more obvious. Recommendation: JS global life (kitchen small electricity + cleaning appliances double high prosperity track + global output of American Culture), Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) (export of independent brand).
Risk warning: raw material price fluctuation risk; Exchange rate fluctuation risk; Insufficient international shipping capacity and freight fluctuation risk.
