Market Review
Last week (2022.3.21-3.25), the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.19%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 2.14%, and the real estate sector rose 3.84%. The real estate sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.04 percentage points and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 5.98 percentage points. A-share real estate companies focused on Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) ( Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) . SZ), China Fortune Land Development Co.Ltd(600340) ( China Fortune Land Development Co.Ltd(600340) . SH), Greenland Holdings Corporation Limited(600606) ( Greenland Holdings Corporation Limited(600606) . SH) increased significantly, up 47.89%, 28.18% and 19.27% respectively. Green city China (3900. HK) and Midea real estate (3990. HK), the H-share real estate companies that focus on, led the increase, with an increase of 20.03% and 7.96% respectively.
Industry news
Harbin plans to cancel the sales restriction policy. The Harbin municipal government issued the notice of the general office of the Harbin Municipal People’s Government on Further Strengthening the regulation and control of the real estate market. Previously, Harbin implemented the regional sales restriction policy within the six districts of the main urban area (Daoli District, Nangang District, Daowai District, Xiangfang District, bungalow District and Songbei District), cancelled the authority to cancel the filing information of online signed contracts of construction units, and for those who newly purchased commercial houses, The commercial housing can be listed for trading only after 3 years from the date of signing the commercial housing online signing contract.
The first batch of centralized land supply in Xiamen will be closed in 2022, with a land transfer fee of about 15.4 billion yuan. On March 24, all 9 plots of land in the first round of centralized land supply in Xiamen in 2022 were successfully transferred, with a total transaction price of 15.365 billion yuan. Among them, the total turnover of four plots on the island was 10.9 billion yuan, and the total turnover of five plots off the island was 4.465 billion yuan.
Hangzhou adjusts the rules of land auction for centralized land supply. On March 23, the official website of Hangzhou Municipal Bureau of planning and natural resources released the announcement of the first batch of centralized land supply in Hangzhou in 2022. The land transfer listed this time sets the land suspension price and upper limit price (the premium rate is not higher than 12%). When the land bidding fails to reach the suspension price, the winner shall be determined according to the principle of the higher price; When the land bidding reaches the suspension price, the online bidding will be suspended and the winner will be determined through the next offline quotation on the basis of this price.
Investment advice
The credit environment still needs to be improved. The Matthew effect of capital is prominent. Enterprises with low financing cost and land acquisition advantage may benefit. The relevant targets: (1) leading real estate enterprises with low financing cost and can continuously obtain land in first and second tier cities, such as green city China (3900. HK), Longhu group (0960. HK), etc; (2) Real estate enterprises that are less affected by the “two concentration” land policy and have diversified land acquisition methods, such as Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ( Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) . SH), Baolong real estate (1238. HK), etc; (3) Leading enterprises in the property management industry and enterprises that layout high-quality segments of the property management industry, such as Country Garden Service (6098. HK), Xincheng Yue service (1755. HK), China Resources Vientiane life (1209. HK), Baolong Commerce (9909. HK) and Xingsheng Commerce (6668. HK).
Risk tips
Tightening of real estate regulation policies; Real estate sales fell short of expectations.
