Current investment tips:
The current round of price rise of new energy vehicle enterprises caused by the price rise of upstream raw materials is still fermenting, and the terminal demand is gradually differentiated in this process. We observed that there is still strong demand in specific markets and some strong product models. We believe that the increase in price makes the market competition gradually break away from the “cost performance” and return to the “product definition ability”. Short term price increases will indeed disturb the overall demand, but in the end, excellent products will be preserved in the tide. The rising price tide will gradually erode the cheese of enterprises with obvious shortcomings in R & D, manufacturing, market, channel, supply chain and so on.
Since March, many brands such as Xiaopeng, Zero run, geometry, Great Wall Euler, Weima, Wuling Hongguang, Chery and ideal automobile have successively announced product price increases, and many brands have carried out the second round of price increases this year. From the recent terminal sales data, the price rise of models has led to structural differentiation in demand. Specifically:
The sales volume of A00 market is mainly growing rapidly in medium and low tier cities. Users mainly increase and replace purchases, which is limited by this round of price rise.
The huge A00 class car buyers have strong consumption willingness and consumption ability, and the total price is low as a whole. Therefore, the impact of the price increase on the sales volume of this class of models is limited.
In the high-end B & C market, the price of this class of models is high, and the price sensitivity of users is relatively low, but the excessive increase still suppresses the short-term realization of some demand. This round of price adjustment can be divided into two categories. One is the price increase of RMB 5000 in Byd Company Limited(002594) , which has little impact on the sales volume of the terminal. The other is that Tesla increased its price by 14000 ~ 30000 yuan in March, with a cumulative increase of 24000 ~ 36000 yuan in 22 years. A large increase will have a certain impact on terminal sales, and the growth rate of orders will decrease by about 30% month on month.
In the mainstream A0 & a market, the product price range is 100000 ~ 200000 yuan, and users have all kinds of requirements for product space, configuration, appearance modeling, cost performance and use cost. Therefore, the strong and unique product power advantage is the most critical winning factor of this level of models in the price rise tide. PHEV has less single battery consumption and is relatively less affected by the upstream price rise. In addition, PHEV has good economy. With the recent rise of oil price, its cost advantage is further highlighted. Among EV Models, products with unique advantages in space, configuration and technology still have strong demand fulfillment. Six days after the price increase, the order quantity of gac-e’an returned to the level before the price increase, even slightly better. After Byd Company Limited(002594) the second round of price increase was opened on March 15, the order quantity also recovered rapidly. In addition, from the point of view of the order quantity of auto home, the order quantity of mainstream class A and A0 pure electric vehicles has not been affected by too many price increases in this round. The order quantity of Euler HaoMao and aion y has exceeded the level before the Spring Festival, and the order quantity of Byd Company Limited(002594) new models plus has maintained a good upward trend.
Investment analysis opinion: the price rise tide has a certain disturbance to the demand release in the short term, but enterprises and models with strong product power and product definition ability will stand out in this round of impact. We are optimistic about the performance of Byd Company Limited(002594) , Tesla, new forces and their supply chain, as well as the vehicle manufacturers Geely, great wall and Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) . Electrification brings new increment of parts, ① attention to the three in one track Jee Technology Co.Ltd(688162) , Zhuhai Enpower Electric Co.Ltd(300681) , Wolong Electric Group Co.Ltd(600580) , Jing-Jin Electric Technologies Co.Ltd(688280) ; ② Focus on Shinry Technologies Co.Ltd(300745) ; ③ Recommendations in the field of thermal management Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) ; ④ Core supply chain of new energy main engine plant: recommend Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , pay attention to Jiangsu Pacific Precision Forging Co.Ltd(300258) , Tongling Jingda Special Magnet Wire Co.Ltd(600577) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Shinry Technologies Co.Ltd(300745) , etc; And the automotive electronic standards benefiting from the development of intelligent electric vehicles: Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Foryou Corporation(002906) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) , Hunan Oil Pump Co.Ltd(603319) , pay attention to Cwb Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(605005) ; ③ Lightweight sector:
Recommend Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , pay attention to Ningbo Heli Technology Co.Ltd(603917) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) . The hybrid industrial chain brings new increment of parts, and Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) . Optimistic about benefiting from the replacement of the new national standard of two wheeled vehicles and the improvement of the management Aima Technology Group Co.Ltd(603529) .
Core risk: the risk of lack of core in the supply chain, the price rise of upstream raw materials exceeded expectations, and the repeated duration of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
