Last week, the contraction of A-Shares fluctuated, and market structural opportunities gradually emerged. Some institutions said that A-Shares have returned from emotion driven to fundamentals driven normality. In the future, A-Shares will gradually stabilize and enter the medium-term upward channel. It is suggested to continue to follow the main line of “stable growth” and focus on the balanced layout of “two low positions”.
historical experience to be verified
From the historical interpretation path of “policy bottom – market bottom”, the “market bottom” often appears 1-3 months after the “policy bottom”. Many investors believe that the current market trend of A-Shares will be adjusted for the second time in 2018. On October 19, 2018, A-Shares ushered in the “policy bottom”, and then the “market bottom” did not appear until January 4, 2019.
“After the emergence of the ‘policy bottom’, whether there will be a lower ‘market bottom’ depends on the strength of macro policies and fundamental data at that time.” Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) chief economist and chief strategist Xun Yugen said that on October 19, 2018, the regulators released the signal of stabilizing the financial market, but the lower “market bottom” appeared on January 4, 2019, mainly because the policies to stabilize economic growth at that time fell one after another in early 2019, but the macro data has changed positively this time.
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) strategy analyst AI Xiongfeng said that the performance inflection point of enterprises only appeared more than a year after the “policy bottom” in 2018. At present, the probability of enterprise profitability bottomed out in the second quarter. In other words, the historical experience of “the market bottom lags behind the policy bottom” needs to be verified under the background of the short-term bottom of the A-share profit cycle and turning upward.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) the latest strategic perspective indicates that A-Shares have returned from emotion driven to fundamentals driven normality. At the same time, the market liquidity pressure has been further relieved, and the institutional position adjustment and reduction is nearing the end. In the future, A-Shares will gradually stabilize and enter the medium-term upward channel.
focus on three main line opportunities
Market structural opportunities have gradually emerged. Last week, the excess returns of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, real estate and other sectors were significant.
For the current allocation strategy, Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) strategy analyst Hu guopeng suggested paying attention to three main lines: first, post cycle varieties lagging behind the changes of economic cycle, including coal, petroleum and petrochemical, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, etc; Second, the real estate with strong expectation of policy marginal relaxation and the large financial sector benefiting from the stabilization of the real estate chain; Third, the undervalued growth sector with sufficient early adjustment and current cost performance has begun to appear, including TMT, medicine and biology, etc.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) it is suggested to continue to stick to the main line of “steady growth” and focus on the balanced layout of “Two Lows”: first, the varieties with relatively low valuation. It is suggested to pay attention to high-quality developers, building materials and household enterprises after the expected mitigation of real estate credit risk, communication operators with significantly improved cash flow, smart grids in the field of new infrastructure, data centers and cloud infrastructure that store energy and benefit from “computing from the East and the west”. The second is the varieties whose fundamentals are expected to be relatively low, focusing on the allocation opportunities of midstream manufacturing suppressed by cost problems after commodity prices peaked, such as smart cars and parts, photovoltaic wind power equipment, aviation, hotels and other fields.
In addition, the recent focus on a quarterly expected variety is expected to focus on lithium, photovoltaic, semiconductor, Baijiu, Chinese medicine, construction and other sectors.
