editor’s note: Recently, the covid-19 epidemic outside China, International Geopolitics, commodity markets and other variables have increased sharply, bringing new major challenges to China’s economic growth and global economic recovery. The “3.16” meeting of the Finance Committee of the State Council and the “3.21” meeting of the national Standing Committee clearly put forward that targeted measures should be taken to stabilize expectations and stabilize the development of the capital market. Confidence is more valuable than gold. From now on, this newspaper will launch a series of reports on “boosting market confidence and stabilizing the capital market”. Through extensive interviews with institutional figures in the securities industry, fund industry, venture capital industry, experts and scholars, as well as representatives of listed companies and enterprises, we will listen to the voice of the market, gather the wisdom of all parties, gather more consensus and jointly contribute to the stability of the capital market
The meetings of the financial committee of the State Council and the executive meeting of the State Council have been held one after another in the near future to respond to hot market issues in a timely manner, put forward the deployment of comprehensive measures to stabilize market expectations and maintain the stable and healthy development of the capital market. On March 25, a spokesman for the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission said that it would promote the establishment of a financial stability guarantee fund as soon as possible to accumulate reserve funds for major risk disposal.
The signals released by the above meeting aroused market attention. The Chinese reporter of securities times · securities firm interviewed a number of senior executives, chief economists and business backbones of securities companies. He learned that the industry is quite concerned about monetary policy, real estate regulation, the return of China concept shares, private economic development, industrial supervision, capital market reform, opening to the outside world and other issues, and actively put forward policy suggestions.
should alleviate the phenomenon of tight credit in real estate adjustment
The real estate industry has always been a pillar industry in China. The fluctuation of the real estate market will inevitably have an impact on the total economic demand. At the meeting of the Finance Committee held on March 16, it was said that it was necessary to timely study and put forward effective solutions to prevent and resolve risks, and put forward supporting measures for the transformation to a new development model.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) chairman and general manager Lin Chuanhui in an interview with the Chinese reporter of securities times and securities companies, suggested that supporting measures be introduced as soon as possible to alleviate the structural tight credit situation caused by the adjustment of the real estate industry.
In Lin Chuanhui’s view, we should not only take new measures to stabilize the real estate, but also cultivate new growth drivers outside the real estate as soon as possible. In terms of stabilizing real estate, we will optimize real estate regulation and financial supporting policies to meet the reasonable needs of new citizens for secure housing and improved house purchase; We should also provide market-oriented liquidity support tools for some real estate enterprises with tight liquidity to avoid the upgrading of liquidity risk. In terms of the transformation of growth momentum, we should improve the anti risk ability of market players through tax cuts and other measures, and adopt demand expansion policies to start the internal cycle of the real economy.
Xu Gao, chief economist of BOC International Securities said that although the excessively strict real estate regulation policies in the early stage have been slightly relaxed, these deregulation policies are not enough to reverse the pessimistic expectations of the real estate industry, so the industry is still in a vicious circle. He told the Chinese reporter of the securities times securities firm that the real estate industry needs to introduce more powerful policies to reverse the pessimistic expectations of the market, otherwise even if loans are given to developers, developers will lack the willingness to spend because of their pessimism about the future prospects.
Hu Yali, CO general manager of Dongfanghong Asset Management said that from the supply side, it is necessary to broaden the financing sources of real estate enterprises through multiple channels, and the implementation levels of regulatory policies such as “three red lines”, “loan concentration” and “supervision of pre-sale funds” need to be further optimized; From the demand side, considering that real estate sales are the precondition for real estate enterprises to obtain land and start construction, the rescue policy only for real estate enterprises may not boost the demand for real estate investment in the short term. In the future, we can carry out more policy support on the demand side of real estate through “implementing policies according to the city”. She also pointed out that while introducing the supporting policy, we should still strictly abide by the bottom line of “housing, housing and non speculation” to prevent house prices from rising too fast.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) chief economist Gao Ruidong proposed to speed up the development of real estate REITs. On the one hand, it provided funds for housing construction and stabilized the total demand; On the other hand, it helps real estate enterprises alleviate capital pressure and reduce industry risks.
monetary policy should be proactive
At this important time, the situation is under pressure and the policy has a new tone. Insiders interviewed by securities times and securities companies in China generally said that monetary policy should be proactive and fiscal policy should be proactive.
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) chief economist Shao Yu said that the recurrence of the epidemic in China since March has increased the market’s concerns about economic growth in the first quarter. This year’s broad fiscal stimulus is actually very strong. “We believe that there is still room for monetary policy. The RRR reduction is worth looking forward to, and the earlier it is, the more effective it will be.”
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) chief economist he Haifeng believes that maintaining the stability, continuity and predictability of policies and using a variety of monetary policy tools to maintain reasonable and abundant market liquidity are the key factors. He Haifeng suggested that first, we should focus on ourselves and adopt the total amount policy of reducing reserve requirements and interest rates in the second quarter, so as to further strengthen the credit easing; Second, precision drip irrigation, combined with the total amount policy, pays attention to structural support and targeted support policy tools to form a combined fist.
“We will use structural monetary policy tools to achieve accurate credit allocation in key areas such as small, medium-sized and micro enterprises, private enterprises, advanced manufacturing, high-tech enterprises and carbon emission reduction, reduce the comprehensive financing cost of enterprises and improve the ability and quality of financial support for the real economy.” He Haifeng said.
improve the development expectation of private enterprises
Private enterprises have always been the most dynamic component of China’s economic family and have irreplaceable value for stabilizing social investment and employment. How to further support the development of private enterprises, Yin Zhongyu, assistant president of the Federal Reserve securities, and Yang Cuiying, vice president of the Institute of public policy and governance of Shanghai University of Finance and economics, jointly put forward a number of innovative policy suggestions.
they believe that at present, private enterprises are facing more difficulties. For example, the difficulty and cost of obtaining indirect financing are usually higher than those of state-owned enterprises; In addition, when government agencies and state-owned enterprises act as purchasers, it is difficult for private enterprises to participate. They said that at present, Chinese enterprises in 398 national economic industries are involved in more than 90%. In order to reduce various practical contradictions caused by the treatment difference between the two ownership enterprises, it is suggested to designate a few fully competitive industries as “private economic exclusive economic zones”. In this exclusive economic zone, wholly state-owned or state-controlled enterprises can withdraw from the holding position by means of mixed reform, which helps to improve the development expectations of private entrepreneurs
In the initial stage, the state can choose a number of sub sectors that are fully competitive and lack comparative advantages of state-owned enterprises as pilot areas, such as catering, home, clothing and other industries.
If the pilot response is positive, we can further expand the scope of “private plots” of private economy, and even do not rule out the final formation of a three-thirds pattern: pure state-owned economy, coexistence of state-owned and private economy, and pure private economy, so as to ensure the harmonious development of state-owned economy and private economy for a long time.
Yin Zhongyu and Yang Cuiying also suggested that relevant state departments could initiate the establishment of investment funds with a scale of 30-50 billion yuan to participate in the fixed growth of private listed companies. When the fixed increase fund-raising of the company is insufficient, the state fund can participate in the share placement according to a certain proportion of the subscription scale of the market-oriented investment institution implemented by the listed company. Considering that the participation of social capital in fixed growth is generally subject to careful investigation and careful decision-making, the overall risk is controllable when the state fund and market-oriented investment institutions are bound for investment.
In addition, the judiciary should take the initiative to protect the legitimate rights and interests of private entrepreneurs like protecting state-owned assets. The judiciary at all levels should take the initiative to assist private enterprises in collecting criminal clues such as job occupation and Favoritism of internal managers, so that private entrepreneurs can be more open to develop markets or products.
make institutional arrangements to undertake the return of China concept shares
The return of China concept shares has been a hot topic in the market in recent years. People in the industry generally said that in addition to building a secondary listing position of China concept shares in Hong Kong, the mainland should make institutional arrangements to undertake the return of China concept shares, and strengthen communication with US regulators.
Shao Yu suggested that the Shanghai Stock Exchange could take the lead to set up an emergency working group, cooperate with China head securities company and law firm, strengthen communication with the senior management of China capital stock company, open up a “green channel” and explore the mechanism for science and innovation board to absorb the return of China capital stock. The return of large market capitalization companies to the science and Innovation Board will help establish a demonstration effect and help the healthy development of the science and innovation board.
At the same time, the reform of the registration system and delisting system of the science and innovation board and the gem need to be grasped with both hands. If you can’t get in and out, it will lead to “bad money expelling good money”.
Liu Feng, chief economist of Galaxy Securities said in an interview that first, it is necessary to speed up the return of state-controlled and sensitive information related enterprises, and actively assist listed companies to return safely through sovereign funds and the sale of US bonds; Second, for non sensitive market-oriented companies, it is necessary to guide them to carry out information disclosure according to the requirements and normally participate in the competition in the overseas capital market.
enhance the attractiveness of long-term funds entering the market
The special meeting of the financial committee of the State Council held on March 16 responded to market concerns in a timely manner and alleviated the panic of the continuous decline of the capital market. Insiders said that in the long run, it is also necessary to promote the deepening of reform and improve the endogenous stability mechanism of China’s capital market.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) chief economist Li Xunlei said to encourage long-term funds to enter the market and increase the proportion of equity assets. It is suggested to give tax incentives including VAT reduction and exemption to long-term institutional investment products such as enterprise annuity and insurance.
Li Xunlei also suggested that for the long-term investment carried out by insurance and other institutions, the accounting subject of “long-term equity investment” priced by the “cost method” can be reformed, and the investment income can be calculated only at the beginning and end of the long-term investment period and exempted from income tax, so as to solve the contradiction between the high market volatility and its low tolerance for net worth withdrawal, so as to attract long-term funds into the market.
Gao Ruidong talked about promoting the development of multi pillar pension system and guiding pension to increase the market proportion, which is expected to bring a steady stream of “long money” to the capital market. According to its calculation, assuming that 30% of household assets are used for pension, half of them are retained in the third pillar personal account, and 30% of the funds are allocated in the equity market, it can bring 5.33 trillion yuan of new growth line funds to the stock market.
