Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : the peak of external risk impact has passed, and A-Shares will gradually stabilize and enter the medium-term upward channel
A shares have returned to the normal driven by fundamentals from emotional driving, and will enter the key period of policy development; In the past two weeks, the epidemic has had a great impact on the economy. The necessity and urgency of the steady growth policy have increased rapidly. A number of policy combinations will be gradually launched and form a joint force; In the second quarter, the economy will gradually repair, and A-Shares will gradually stabilize and enter the medium-term upward channel.
First of all, the impact of the current round of China's epidemic is expected to be mainly concentrated in March to April, which has a great actual impact on the economy, or drag down the year-on-year growth rate of GDP in the first quarter by 0.5 to 1 percentage point. Secondly, the necessity and urgency of the steady growth policy have increased rapidly, and it is expected to be launched twice. The options include: increasing the support of the real estate policy, re launching the total tools of monetary policy, reducing fiscal taxes and fees and accelerating the implementation of expenditure projects, accelerating the formation of physical workload of infrastructure investment, and the implementation of local government relief plans for micro entities. Finally, the peak of external risk impact has passed, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has become increasingly clear, and the regulatory impact of Hong Kong stocks and China concept stocks will not change the trend of medium-term repair.
configuration, it is suggested to grasp the key window of the secondary force of the steady growth policy, closely follow the relevant main line, focus on the balanced layout of "two low positions", and meet the resonant upward trend of value and growth in the second quarter
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : steady growth is expected to drive market repair
① at present, there are three major concerns in the market: capital outflow caused by the narrowing of interest rate difference between China and the United States, inflation driven by the rise of commodity prices under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the repeated impact of China's epidemic on the economy. ② The worst time when we judge the negative factors may be gradually passing, the market adjustment time and space has been obvious, the valuation has been low, and steady growth is expected to drive the market to repair. ③ The configuration focuses on the main line of steady growth, such as photovoltaic wind power of new infrastructure and cloud computing of data center, and pays attention to undervalued financial real estate.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities: A shares have not yet reached the time of trend reversal, and the short-term market fluctuates horizontally
The profit expectation decreases + the discount rate is expected to rise. The time for A-Shares to reverse the trend has not yet come, and the index will still fluctuate in the range. From the bottom of the policy to the bottom of the market, do a good job in defense and counterattack, rather than trend counterattack. From a strategic point of view, spring will eventually come, and we should also be ready for the coming spring. However, the premise is that investors still need to defend and wait until the demand side policies and fundamental expectations are clear. Maintain an "empty cup" mentality. The short-term market is still dominated by sideways shocks, 31003400 At the same time, another important factor that cannot be ignored is the transaction structure. The rise of investors' risk-free interest rate is making A-Shares enter the contraction game.
At present, the logical focus of stock selection should focus on stocks with low-risk characteristics, pay attention to the intersection of undervalued value and profit improvement, and the focus of industry selection should be on consumption and cycle sectors. Specifically, there are three directions: 1) pro inflation & High Dividend: coal and chemical resources; 2) To G end or public investment direction: photovoltaic, wind power, power operation, power grid, construction, etc; 3) dilemma reversal and profitability certainty: pigs and Baijiu, and focus on the bottom elasticity of consumer goods and light industry in the middle part of Q2.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities: from strategic defense to strategic stalemate
The market in April is expected to recover from the extreme disappointment of the policy and look forward to the new policy setting of the Politburo meeting. In the medium term, the market still faces the challenges of economic downturn, global inflation and China US relations, and the view remains neutral.
Looking ahead to April, we believe that the style is undervalued or will be relatively dominant, and the industry configuration can be mainly carried out in three directions: 1) global inflation cannot be verified in the short term, but it is more recommended to recommend varieties with hard supply gap, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery with high odds (planting chain, pig cycle of accelerating capacity removal due to rising feed costs), and pay attention to coal / aluminum; 2) In the short term, there are still related to the steady growth expected by the policy: real estate leaders and urban commercial banks; 3) There is still pressure on the growth denominator end. It is preferred to focus on the photovoltaic with upward prosperity at the molecular end and improved production chain ratio in April, as well as the military industry and medicine (CXO / in vitro testing / vaccine / traditional Chinese Medicine) with high cost performance and high prosperity at the molecular end. Pay attention to the semiconductor materials and IGBT with tight balance between supply and demand and rising prices in the first quarter.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : "policy bottom" + "market bottom" has appeared, the index has been shaken and consolidated, and investor sentiment has been gradually restored
"Policy bottom" + "market bottom" has emerged. In the case of probability, the market will enter a window of index shock consolidation and gradual restoration of investor sentiment. However, in the second quarter, we still need to pay attention to the following potential exceeding expectations and risk points: the possibility of exceeding expectations is more likely to come from China's policy relaxation: 1) "steady growth" is still a "hard requirement", and there is room and power for subsequent monetary and credit relaxation. 2) The risks of real estate enterprises are expected to "dismantle mines" in succession, and more favorable liquidity and policy support are also needed. 3) The decision-making level has a clear determination to maintain the stability of the capital market. Risk points and uncertainties are more from overseas: 1) the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates and shrinking the table will still curb risk appetite. 2) While liquidity is tightening, US stock profits are also facing downward revision. If U.S. stocks fluctuate sharply again, it may be a drag on a shares. 3) The regulatory impact of zhonggai shares is not clear, or there may be further disturbance. 4) The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues. Recently, global commodity prices have rebounded again, and it is difficult for global stagflation concerns to subside quickly.
Investment strategy: "small high tech" + "big finance" and "dumbbell" configuration: on the one hand, in the adjustment of medicine, computer and "new half army", find the target that meets the characteristics of "small high tech" from bottom to top; On the other hand, the "stable" growth of real estate and infrastructure sectors benefits from the "stable" growth of the old ones. In the long term, we will continue to focus on the five major directions of scientific and technological innovation. 1) New energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) new generation information and communication technology (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5g, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) biomedicine (innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.).
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) : the oversold rebound is still in sight, and the scenery should be long-term
In April, it is expected that the risk appetite will remain in a relatively sluggish state, which is difficult to improve significantly. The core still lies in the risks caused by the accelerated tightening of monetary policy by the external Federal Reserve and the concerns about the strength of internal steady growth policies, especially the strength of real estate regulation and control policies. The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee in late April is expected to maintain the general tone of the central economic work conference as a whole. It is expected that the enthusiasm of the tone will not exceed expectations, and the policy will be mainly fine tuned.
At the end of April, the market may worry again about the Fed's interest rate hike and table contraction. It is advisable to look at the quantity of scenery and change space with time. The current A-share has fallen to an undervalued value and has a good medium and long-term investment performance price ratio.
From the medium and long-term perspective, we are still optimistic about the three main lines of the third stage of growth style (main line + diffusion), stable growth (new and old infrastructure, real estate and Banking) and consumption recovery (medicine, price rise main line and travel chain). However, in the short-term dimension, under the frequent switching of market hotspots, we suggest that the configuration should be more refined. Specifically: 1) the stable growth chain has high short-term cost performance, and can continue to participate in the upstream and downstream of real estate Banks and new and old infrastructure. 2) In the medium and short term, we can continue to participate in the opportunities related to the main line of medicine and price increase (planting industry / chemical fertilizer). Before the inflection point of the epidemic, the travel chain (Airport / hotel / catering, etc.) is mainly concerned. 3) For the growth style, it is suggested to adjust the growth main line of power equipment, electronics and other industries.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) : it is still in the bottom grinding stage in the short term. Be patient
Looking forward to the future, we believe that the short-term market may still be repeated, but the more targeted development of the "steady growth" policy may also gradually bring about the improvement of fundamental expectations. The stage similar to the sharp decline in the previous period may have ended, and the market may still be at the bottom stage in the short term. Combined with the recent market adjusted valuation has gradually approached the level of December 2018 and the end of March 2020, we believe that in the medium-term dimension, market opportunities outweigh risks. In the future, if combined with market transactions, it may further shrink to about 700 billion yuan, and other indicators of cooling trading sentiment may be more helpful to judge the emergence of the bottom of the market stage.
At present, we pay attention to three directions: 1) potential support areas for policy development, including infrastructure, real estate, stable demand related industrial chains (building materials, construction, household appliances, home furnishings, etc.), brokerage finance, etc; 2) For the middle and lower reaches consumption with more adjustments, low valuation and clear medium and long-term prospects in 2021, choose stocks from bottom to top, including household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine, etc; 3) The manufacturing growth sector, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors, has released some risks, and the turnaround is waiting for the marginal mitigation of overseas "inflation" risk.
Anxin Securities: April day in the world begins with gold rush
Overall, on March 16, when A-Shares continued to fall sharply and approached the key point, the special meeting of the financial stability Commission was held to further consolidate the "policy bottom". We are firm in our previous view: see long Zaitian in March and have confidence in the 3000 support level of the Shanghai Composite Index. At the same time, we maintained our previous prediction of the end of the current round of economy in the second quarter. The inflection point for the improvement of molecular fundamentals is expected to be closer, the negative impact of external factors (Russia Ukraine conflict, fed interest rate hike and global inflation) is weakened, and the possibility of entering a unilateral downward trend in the equity market similar to that in 2012 is low. A shares may jump into the abyss in the second quarter and look forward to "Nike type". Don't look at the floating clouds to cover your eyes. If the scenery is long, you should look at it. From a longer perspective, at present, seeing the dragon in the field, "April day on earth is the beginning of gold rush", which is a strategic opportunity to configure A-share high-quality listed companies.
At the structural level, in the bottom grinding stage from "policy bottom to market bottom", the market is facing the suppression of economic downturn and policy uncertainty. The performance of value-based and countercyclical industries (such as infrastructure and real estate) and weak cycle industries is better than that of growth-oriented industries. However, after the bottom grinding stage, the risk appetite will rise, the market will return to the growth style, and the high-risk preference sector will perform better. Corresponding to the current four main lines: steady growth, high prosperity, post epidemic repair and global inflation. At present, we are in the process of "delivering steady growth and turning the corner with high prosperity". Our proposed configuration is still steady growth, high prosperity global inflation post epidemic repair. In addition, in our recent communication with market investors, the order of preference is: growth, medicine, cycle real estate, weighted blue chip (Finance), breeding old infrastructure and consumption.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) : demand grows steadily and profits go upstream
The profits and exports of industrial enterprises from January to February show that China's overall demand is relatively resilient, but the cost pressure is prominent against the background of high upstream prices. In terms of subdivided departments, the profits were redistributed between the upper and middle reaches, and the profits began to concentrate to the upper reaches. In the follow-up, once the steady growth begins to exert obvious force, under the background of tight supply and low inventory, the profits will further gather in the upstream and be further squeezed in the middle reaches. Therefore, in the context of this year's stable growth year, we should give more consideration to the most upstream links of each industrial chain. Pay attention to the core industries and individual stock selection logic of "demand comes from stable growth and profits go upstream".
YueKai Securities: shock repair is expected to continue. At present, it is suggested to focus on individual stocks rather than index
Since the 21st century, there have been five consecutive sharp declines in a shares, namely: the sharp decline of share reform + policy tightening from 2004 to 2005; The subprime mortgage crisis + policy tightening in 2008 fell sharply; From 2011 to 2012, the economic momentum switching + policy tightening fell sharply; Deleveraging + killing valuation fell sharply from 2015 to 2016; The Sino US trade friction + policy tightening in 2018 fell sharply. By comparing with the historical "bottom", we select four levels and eleven indicators to observe. An important conclusion is that market reaction to fundamentals is "from fast to slow", and logical deduction is "from slow to fast"
Maintaining the recent view, we believe that the shock repair is expected to continue, but the current window suggests to focus on individual stocks over the index, pay attention to the verification of fundamentals in the first quarter performance window period, and lay out three main lines in the future: 1) the main line of stable growth: screen the targets with low value and high dividend cash flow. In the sector direction, the infrastructure real estate chain driven by the "old economy" and the new energy driven by the "new economy", integrated circuits, artificial intelligence and 5g deserve attention. 2) Main line of inflation: under the global stagflation pattern, energy and other commodities are expected to remain at a high level. 3) Main line of cost performance: select growth targets with PEG 1. It is expected that policies and plans for wind power, photovoltaic and new energy vehicles will be implemented one after another, and the industrial track will develop with a long slope and thick snow. It is suggested to pay attention to the verification of fundamentals, focus on the annual report and the first quarterly report, beware of poor performance expectations, and select some cost-effective growth targets with PEG 1.
