This weekend, a conference completely stirred the new energy vehicle track.
At the forum of China electric vehicle hundred people’s conference held from March 25 to 27, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) revealed two major developments. Wu Kai, its chief scientist, said at the meeting that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) will release the “Kirin battery” in April this year, and its system weight, energy density and bulk energy density will continue to lead the highest level in the industry; In addition, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ‘s 1000km endurance and higher specific energy non thermal diffusion technology will achieve mass production in 2023.
Byd Company Limited(002594) chairman and President Wang Chuanfu shared important predictions at the forum. He predicted that in the first half of March this year, the penetration rate of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in China had exceeded 28%, and by the end of this year, the penetration rate of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in China could reach 35%
With regard to the rising price of raw materials for new energy vehicles, Xin Guobin, Vice Minister of industry and information technology, said at the forum that the current sharp rise in the price of raw materials for power batteries needs to be paid close attention to and seriously studied and solved.
Under the pressure of rising prices of upstream raw materials and the influence of declining subsidies, the price rise has almost become one of the hottest topics in the electric vehicle industry since 2022, and a crazy price rise tide has been set off in the whole industry.
trillion “ningwang” releases heavy signal
March 25-27, the forum of China electric vehicle hundred people’s Association (2022) was held in Beijing. New energy giants such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Panasonic and so on released heavy signals and attracted market attention
Among them, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) revealed two major developments Wu Kai, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) chief scientist, said at the meeting that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) launched the third generation CTP technology through continuous technical iteration, which is internally called “Kirin battery”, and its system weight, energy density and bulk energy density continue to lead the highest level in the industry. Under the same chemical system and the same battery pack size, the power of Qilin battery pack can be increased by 13% compared with 4680 system.
Wu Kai further revealed that the “Kirin battery” of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) will be officially released in April this year.
It should be noted that the 4680 battery is a new type of power battery with larger size. In September 2020, Tesla announced the 4680 battery technology for the first time. According to official data, its energy density reached 300kwh / kg, the single energy of the 4680 cell increased by 5 times, the range of the whole vehicle increased by 16%, the output power increased by 6 times, and the cost decreased by 14%.
Tesla CEO musk once said frankly that this battery is a “huge breakthrough” in technology, which will make it possible for his company to produce electric vehicles for $25000. In early March this year, it was reported that Panasonic plans to build a power battery factory in the United States and may produce 4680 batteries for Tesla.
At the forum, Nan Jianxiong, President of Panasonic electric, said that 4680 battery will become the mainstream of cylindrical battery in the future. 4680 battery is a “double innovation” in battery structure and material: it adopts large cylindrical structural parts, and its capacity is five times higher than 2170 battery.
In contrast, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) the upcoming “Kirin battery” has higher energy density and mileage than 4680 battery, which is undoubtedly a major breakthrough for the new energy vehicle track.
meanwhile, at the meeting on March 26, Wu Kai also threw out an important message, which said that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) took the lead in realizing non thermal diffusion on 811 products in September 2020. Some vehicle enterprises and battery enterprises have successively launched their own non thermal diffusion technology. At present, non thermal diffusion technology has become the mainstream of the industry Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) with a endurance of 1000km, the non thermal diffusion technology with higher specific energy will achieve mass production in 2023
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) threw out the super battery and super endurance non thermal diffusion technology, which undoubtedly triggered the market’s expectations for the follow-up of new energy. Some analysts pointed out that battery endurance and safety have always been the key to restricting the popularization of electric vehicles. Once a major breakthrough continues, the penetration of new energy vehicles will continue to improve.
Wang Chuanfu: the penetration rate of new energy vehicles this year can reach 35%
Wang Chuanfu, chairman and President of Byd Company Limited(002594) also shared important predictions on the development of new energy vehicles at the forum of China electric vehicle hundred people’s Association. It is estimated that in the first half of March this year, the penetration rate of China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) has exceeded 28%, and it is estimated that the penetration rate of the whole month will also exceed 28%. The Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) penetration rate in China increased by 1.3 percentage points per month on average, from 6% in January to 22% in December last year. According to the speed of industry reform last year, the penetration rate of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile is expected to reach 35% by the end of this year.
At the same time, Wang Chuanfu further stressed that at present, the market drive of new energy vehicles accounts for 70% and the policy drive is 30%. The growth of new energy vehicles in 2021 is different from that three years ago. At that time, online car hailing and taxis accounted for a large proportion, but the proportion of private cars was as high as 88% in 2021, which is Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) using practical actions to support the purchase of new energy vehicles.
Wang Chuanfu expressed a different view on the energy density of power batteries discussed at the forum. He believed that when the mileage has crossed a certain threshold, the importance of energy density of power batteries is decreasing, and the most important indicators may become safety, cost and cycle life. At present, the soaring price of battery raw materials is a challenge that the industry needs to overcome.
Wang Chuanfu’s concern is obviously closely related to the continuous rise in the price of lithium battery upstream materials. After the continuous surge in 2021, the price of lithium carbonate is still soaring in 2022. From the specific data, since the beginning of July last year, lithium carbonate has increased by about 500%, lithium hydroxide has increased by about 400%, ternary materials have increased by about 130%, lithium iron phosphate materials have increased by about 220%, electrolyte has increased by about 40%, and the prices of cathode materials and diaphragm have also increased slightly
Due to the continuous impact of upstream material costs, since the middle of last year, the sales price of cell has increased by 50% – 60%, and the comprehensive cost of cell has increased by more than 65%. At present, lithium battery enterprises are still facing certain cost pressure, and there is the possibility of further price increase in the future.
On the issue of the rising price of raw materials, Xin Guobin, Vice Minister of the Ministry of industry and information technology, said at the meeting that the current sharp rise in the price of raw materials for power batteries needs to be paid close attention to and seriously studied and solved.
Xin Guobin mentioned that China will moderately accelerate the progress of resource development, resolutely crack down on unfair competition such as hoarding, speculation and speculation, guide upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain to strengthen cooperation and win-win development, and promote the return of key raw material prices to rationality.
Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and vice president of the China Electric Vehicle Association, said at the meeting that the balance between supply and demand of lithium resources may return to normal in 2-3 years. However, considering the deterioration of the global trade environment and the nickel price speculation caused by the Russian Ukrainian war, in order to deal with the supply security, government departments should introduce relevant policies and take effective measures to crack down on hoarding and strange things and curb short-term sharp fluctuations, Otherwise, it will have a significant impact on the development of electric vehicles.
electric vehicles drive up the price tide
Since 2022, price increase has almost become one of the hottest topics in the electric vehicle industry.
Due to the upward pressure on the price of raw materials in the upstream and the impact of the decline of subsidies, the downstream new energy vehicle manufacturers are facing huge cost pressure.
As a result, more and more automobile manufacturers began to raise the price of new cars. The price of Tesla‘s official version of model y increased by 10000 yuan on March, according to Tesla‘s official website; After that, the price was adjusted again on March 15 and 17. Finally, the prices of Tesla Model 3 and model y were adjusted, with a maximum increase of 30000 yuan.
in addition to Tesla, other electric car players also began to join the price increase camp:
Xiaopeng P7 (480g): the price rose from 220000 yuan last year to 240000 yuan, an increase of 20000 yuan; Supporting 60.2kwh lithium iron phosphate battery;
Xiaopeng P7 (670g): the price rose from 257000 yuan last year to 273000 yuan, an increase of 16000 yuan; Supporting 80.9kwh ternary battery, lower than the price increase of ternary battery;
Ideal one: the price rose from 338000 yuan last year to 349800 yuan, an increase of 11800 yuan; Supporting 40.5kwh ternary battery, lower than the price increase of ternary battery.
In addition, more than 20 auto companies, including Nezha automobile, Zero run automobile, Weima automobile, gac-e’an, Feifan automobile, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Euler, SAIC GM Wuling, jikrypton and lantu automobile, also raised the prices of their products, ranging from several thousand yuan to ten thousand yuan, almost covering nearly 40 mainstream models in the current electric vehicle market.
If the price of raw materials continues to rise, the possibility that automobile manufacturers will continue to raise prices will not be ruled out in the future. Recently, the ideal car CEO Li Xiang on micro-blog Tucao make complaints about the price rise of the two quarter. Most of the automobile brands that have not announced the price increase are because the price increase range of batteries in the second quarter has not been negotiated, and they will generally increase the price immediately after negotiation. The increase of battery cost in the second quarter is very unreasonable.
Such a fierce price rise has even attracted a large number of “scalpers” to hype orders for new energy vehicles. At present, a large number of new energy vehicle price increase transfer orders have appeared on various automobile forums and second-hand trading platforms, involving Tesla, Xiaopeng automobile, ideal automobile, extremely krypton, Zero run, Euler, lantu and other mainstream new energy vehicle brands in the market.
The price increases of these transfer orders range from thousands of yuan to tens of thousands of yuan. The sellers include both individual car owners and “scalpers”.
